NFL Spread Picks - Week 16 2021

By Andy Troiano · December 22, 2021

This post covers the probabilities of who will cover the spread in a game. We do not provide commentary on the picks, we provide the outputs directly from our models. There are plenty of other resources you can use to help guide your picks in conjunction with the data we provide.

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Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur before the recent game.
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> week </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> pct\_correct </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> model\_id </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.31 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.81 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.81 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.64 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.21 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 11 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 12 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.21 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Spread Predictions

  • HomeTeam - The Home Team for the game
  • AwayTeam - The Away Team for the game
  • Line - The line used for the generation of the probabilities
  • BinScore - The bin of the probability
  • HomeTeamCoverProb- The probability the home team covers the spread
  • AwayTeamCoverProb - The probability the away team covers the spread
  • Time - Game Time
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Line </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Bet </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> AwayTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Time </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.86 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-23 20:20:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -7.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.46 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-25 16:30:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -1.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.58 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.42 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-25 20:15:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.73 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.27 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-26 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.71 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.29 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-26 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -5.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.42 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.58 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-26 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.12 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.88 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-26 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -2.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.12 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.88 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-26 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -2.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.44 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-26 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -2.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.35 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.65 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-26 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -10.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.12 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.88 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-26 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -7.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.62 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.38 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-26 16:05:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -9.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.63 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.37 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-26 16:25:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -1.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.59 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.41 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-26 16:25:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -10.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.47 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.53 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-26 20:20:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.46 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-27 20:15:00 EST </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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