NFL Spread Picks - Week 14 2021

By Andy Troiano · December 09, 2021

This post covers the probabilities of who will cover the spread in a game. We do not provide commentary on the picks, we provide the outputs directly from our models. There are plenty of other resources you can use to help guide your picks in conjunction with the data we provide.

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Current Limitations

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  • The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur before the recent game.
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> week </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> pct\_correct </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> model\_id </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.31 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.81 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.81 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.64 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.21 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 11 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 12 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Spread Predictions

  • HomeTeam - The Home Team for the game
  • AwayTeam - The Away Team for the game
  • Line - The line used for the generation of the probabilities
  • BinScore - The bin of the probability
  • HomeTeamCoverProb- The probability the home team covers the spread
  • AwayTeamCoverProb - The probability the away team covers the spread
  • Time - Game Time
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Line </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Bet </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> AwayTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Time </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-09 20:20:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.46 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-12 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.66 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.34 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-12 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -2.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.47 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.53 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-12 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -1.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.25 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.75 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-12 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -2.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.31 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.69 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-12 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -9.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.27 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.73 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-12 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.38 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.62 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-12 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -9.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.39 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.61 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-12 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -8.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.46 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-12 16:05:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -10.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.45 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.55 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-12 16:05:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.46 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-12 16:25:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -11.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.63 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.37 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-12 20:20:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -2.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.35 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.65 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-13 20:15:00 EST </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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