NFL Spread Picks - Week 13 2021

By Andy Troiano · December 02, 2021

This post covers the probabilities of who will cover the spread in a game. We do not provide commentary on the picks, we provide the outputs directly from our models. There are plenty of other resources you can use to help guide your picks in conjunction with the data we provide.

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Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur before the recent game.
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> week </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> pct\_correct </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> model\_id </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.31 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.81 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.81 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.64 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.21 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 11 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 12 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Spread Predictions

  • HomeTeam - The Home Team for the game
  • AwayTeam - The Away Team for the game
  • Line - The line used for the generation of the probabilities
  • BinScore - The bin of the probability
  • HomeTeamCoverProb- The probability the home team covers the spread
  • AwayTeamCoverProb - The probability the away team covers the spread
  • Time - Game Time
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Line </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Bet </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> AwayTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Time </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.72 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.28 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-02 20:20:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.74 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.26 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-05 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-05 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.71 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.29 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-05 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 11.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.45 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.55 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-05 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.22 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.78 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-05 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.46 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-05 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -10.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.32 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.68 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-05 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.46 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-05 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -2.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.34 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.66 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-05 16:05:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.45 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.55 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-05 16:25:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -12.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.45 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.55 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-05 16:25:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.53 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.47 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-05 20:20:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.63 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.37 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-06 20:15:00 EST </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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