NFL Spread Picks - Week 12 2021

By Andy Troiano · November 24, 2021

This post covers the probabilities of who will cover the spread in a game. We do not provide commentary on the picks, we provide the outputs directly from our models. There are plenty of other resources you can use to help guide your picks in conjunction with the data we provide.

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Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur before the recent game.
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> week </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> pct\_correct </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> model\_id </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.31 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.81 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.81 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.64 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.21 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 11 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Spread Predictions

  • HomeTeam - The Home Team for the game
  • AwayTeam - The Away Team for the game
  • Line - The line used for the generation of the probabilities
  • BinScore - The bin of the probability
  • HomeTeamCoverProb- The probability the home team covers the spread
  • AwayTeamCoverProb - The probability the away team covers the spread
  • Time - Game Time
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Line </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Bet </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> AwayTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Time </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.46 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-25 12:30:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -7.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.27 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.73 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-25 16:30:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.87 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-25 20:20:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-28 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -5.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.67 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.33 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-28 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.44 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-28 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -2.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.29 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.71 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-28 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.42 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.58 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-28 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.34 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.66 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-28 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.34 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.66 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-28 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.46 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-28 16:05:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -1.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.59 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.41 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-28 16:25:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.61 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.39 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-28 16:25:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -4.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.36 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.64 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-28 20:20:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -1.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.46 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-29 20:15:00 EST </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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