Probability of Covering the Spread

This post is going to be a weekly re-occurring post where we will provide AI-generated spread picks. The analysis will be light. These are coming from an experimental model.

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Spread Picks for Week 12 2020

Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur before the recent game.

Backtested Performance Week 6 to 21 From 2019

I deep dived into the backtesting here, I highly recommend you read this

YTD Performance

Below you’ll see some performance measures for the model YTD.

The week one post was using the V1 model
The week two probabilities are using our V2 model
V2 was rerun on week 1 predictions, and the results are posted below

<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> week </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> pct\_correct </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> model\_id </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.38 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 11 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.73 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.53 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.71 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.64 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 11 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Spread Predictions For Week 12 2020

HomeTeam - The Home Team for the game
AwayTeam - The Away Team for the game
Line - The line used for the generation of the probabilities
BinScore - The bin of the probability
HomeTeamCoverProb- The probability the home team covers the spread
AwayTeamCoverProb - The probability the away team covers the spread
Time - Game Time

<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Line </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Bet </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> AwayTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Time </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.69 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.31 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-26 12:30:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.62 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.38 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-26 16:30:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -4.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.68 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.32 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-26 20:20:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.55 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.45 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-29 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -5.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.76 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.24 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-29 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.68 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.32 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-29 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.58 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.42 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-29 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -4.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.58 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.42 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-29 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.78 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.22 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-29 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.59 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.41 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-29 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.48 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.52 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-29 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.34 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.66 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-29 16:05:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> NA </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-29 16:05:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> NA </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.76 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.24 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-29 16:25:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -8.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.70 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.30 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-29 20:20:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .4 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-30 20:15:00 EST </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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NFL Spread Picks - Week 12 2020