NFL Spread Picks - Week 11 2021

By Andy Troiano · November 18, 2021

This post covers the probabilities of who will cover the spread in a game. We do not provide commentary on the picks, we provide the outputs directly from our models. There are plenty of other resources you can use to help guide your picks in conjunction with the data we provide.

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Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur before the recent game.
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> week </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> pct\_correct </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> model\_id </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.31 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.81 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.81 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.64 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.21 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Spread Predictions

  • HomeTeam - The Home Team for the game
  • AwayTeam - The Away Team for the game
  • Line - The line used for the generation of the probabilities
  • BinScore - The bin of the probability
  • HomeTeamCoverProb- The probability the home team covers the spread
  • AwayTeamCoverProb - The probability the away team covers the spread
  • Time - Game Time
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Line </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Bet </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> AwayTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Time </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.37 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.63 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-18 20:20:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -7.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.51 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.49 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-21 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.62 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.38 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-21 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.22 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.78 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-21 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.25 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.75 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-21 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -11.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.19 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.81 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-21 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.46 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-21 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.49 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.51 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-21 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -10.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.47 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.53 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-21 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -2.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.30 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.70 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-21 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-21 16:05:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -2.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.63 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.37 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-21 16:25:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.80 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.20 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-21 16:25:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -5.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.46 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-21 20:20:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -11.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-22 20:15:00 EST </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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