NFL Spread Picks - Week 11 2020

By Andy Troiano · November 19, 2020

This post is going to be a weekly re-occurring post where we will provide AI-generated spread picks. The analysis will be light. These are coming from an experimental model.

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Spread Picks for Week 11 2020

Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • The model does not know about significant roster changes that occur before the recent game.
Backtested Performance Week 6 to 21 From 2019

I deep dived into the backtesting here, I highly recommend you read this

YTD Performance

Below you’ll see some performance measures for the model YTD.

  • The week one post was using the V1 model
  • The week two probabilities are using our V2 model
  • V2 was rerun on week 1 predictions, and the results are posted below
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> week </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> pct\_correct </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> model\_id </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.38 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 16 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 11 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.73 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 15 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.53 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.71 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.64 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
Weekly and YTD Performance of Model V2 Without the .5 and .6 Buckets

Below you’ll see some performance measures for the current version of the model when excluding the .5 and .6 buckets. The V2 model was rescored on 11-12-2020 and these numbers are restated from previous weeks.

  • In our backtesting, the performance of all buckets except for .5 and .6 was ~60%
  • That is the population with the highest win rate
  • We Are not a betting site. All recommendations are purely our opinion; please do your own research.
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> Week </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> PctCorrect </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> ModelID </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.30 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 12 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.58 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.77 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 11 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.64 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.00 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.67 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Below is the YTD performance of the V2 Model without the .5 and .6 buckets

<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> Games </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Correct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> PctCorrect </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> ModelID </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 65 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 37 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> V2 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Game Spread Predictions For Week 11 2020

  • HomeTeam - The Home Team for the game
  • AwayTeam - The Away Team for the game
  • Line - The line used for the generation of the probabilities
  • BinScore - The bin of the probability
  • HomeTeamCoverProb- The probability the home team covers the spread
  • AwayTeamCoverProb - The probability the away team covers the spread
  • Time - Game Time
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Line </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Bet </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> AwayTeamCoverProb </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Time </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.38 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.62 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-19 20:20:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -3.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.40 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-22 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-22 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-22 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> NA </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.45 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.55 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-22 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -4.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.49 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.51 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-22 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -5.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.39 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.61 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-22 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -1.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-22 13:00:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.49 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.51 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-22 16:05:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -9.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-22 16:05:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -1.5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-22 16:25:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -7.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.46 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-22 16:25:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.39 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.61 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-22 20:20:00 EST </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -4.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.52 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.48 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2020-11-23 20:15:00 EST </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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