NFL Money Line Predictions - Week 4 2021

By Andy Troiano · September 30, 2021

This post covers the probabilities of who will win a game. We do not provide commentary on the picks; we provide the outputs directly from our models. There are plenty of other resources you can use to help guide your picks in conjunction with the data we provide.

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Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • Last-minute roster changes or injuries will not be captured by the model.
  • A good example is when Tyrod Taylor has his lung punctured by their team doctor before game 2 during the 2020 season.

2020 Performance Recap

In 2020, we went 184 and 84. Good for 10th overall in the country.

You can find our records on NFLPickWatch

Money Line Predictions

<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Prediction </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamWinProb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> AwayTeamWinProb </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.81 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.19 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.73 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.27 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.80 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.20 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.77 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.23 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.72 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.28 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.40 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.53 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.47 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.71 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.29 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.46 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.43 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.57 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.46 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.54 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.40 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.30 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.70 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.40 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.24 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.76 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.67 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.33 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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