This post covers the probabilities of who will win a game. We do not provide commentary on the picks, we provide the outputs directly from our models. There are plenty of other resources you can use to help guide your picks in conjunction with the data we provide.
HouseKeeping!
Subscription To Our Site
If you like this content and also play fantasy football, our site provides weekly game projections.
We provide weekly projections and stats for $5 a month during the regular season. When the season is over, we do not bill.
With the MVP subscription:
- You can customize scoring
- Save players to your roster
- Download all the predictions into a CSV file
- Download raw player data to do your analysis/modeling
You can make a free account to get a preview!
We also have a How-To article you can review to give you a taste of what is available.
Current Limitations
Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:
- Last-minute roster changes or injuries will not be captured by the model.
- A good example is when Tyrod Taylor has his lung punctured by their team doctor before game 2 during the 2020 season.
2020 Performance Recap
In 2020, we went 184 and 84. Good for 10th overall in the country.
You can find our records on NFLPickWatch
Money Line Predictions
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Prediction </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamWinProb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> AwayTeamWinProb </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.55 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.45 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.65 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.35 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.51 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.49 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.44 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>Questions/Feedback
If anyone has any questions or wants to talk to us, you can find us on our Slack Channel. Click here to join: We love to talk.