NFL Money Line Predictions - Week 19 2020

By Andy Troiano · January 14, 2021

This post is going to be a weekly re-occurring post where we’ll provide probabilities on who will win a game. The analysis will be light. These are coming from an experimental model. When the season starts, we’ll be keeping a running tally of the performance.

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Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

  • Last minute roster changes or injuries will not be captured by the model.
  • A good example is when Taylor has his lung punctured by their team doctor prior to game 2 during the 2020 season.
Backtested Performance Week 6 to 21 From 2019

I deep dived into the backtesting here

Season To Date Performance

Below is the overall performance of the money line predictions for the year

<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> TotalPredictions </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> TotalCorrect </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> PctCorrect </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 262 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 177 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.68 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Below is the performance of the money line predictions based on the scoring bin.

Note - The model predicts the probability of the Home Team winning, so any score before .5 would be a bet for the away team. In the table below, I normalized the bins. The .6 bin is for all .6 probabilities, either for the Home Team or Away Team. A .6 probability for the Away Team would be .4 probability for the Home Team. A .6 probability for the Home Team would be a .4 probability for the Away Team.

<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> TotalPredictions </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> TotalCorrect </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> PctCorrect </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 88 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 55 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.62 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 105 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 70 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.67 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 59 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 44 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.75 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.80 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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Money Line Predictions For Week 19 2020

<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Prediction </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamWinProb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamLoseProb </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.83 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.17 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.63 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.37 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.83 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.17 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.55 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.45 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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