This post covers the probabilities of who will win a game. We do not provide commentary on the picks, we provide the outputs directly from our models. There are plenty of other resources you can use to help guide your picks in conjunction with the data we provide.
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Current Limitations
Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:
- Last-minute roster changes or injuries will not be captured by the model.
- A good example is when Tyrod Taylor has his lung punctured by their team doctor before game 2 during the 2020 season.
2020 Performance Recap
In 2020, we went 184 and 84. Good for 10th overall in the country.
You can find our records on NFLPickWatch
Money Line Predictions
<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Prediction </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamWinProb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> AwayTeamWinProb </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.72 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.28 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.67 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.33 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.36 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.64 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.63 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.37 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.53 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.47 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.70 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.30 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.73 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.27 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.69 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.31 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.22 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.78 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.45 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.55 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.35 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.65 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.41 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.59 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.42 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.58 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.55 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.45 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.42 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.58 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>Questions/Feedback
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