Proabilites of Who Is Going to Win a NFL Game

This post is going to be a weekly re-occurring post where we’ll provide probabilities on who will win a game. The analysis will be light. These are coming from an experimental model. When the season starts, we’ll be keeping a running tally of the performance.

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Current Limitations

Below is a list of the current known limitations in our model:

Last minute roster changes or injuries will not be captured by the model.
A good example is when Taylor has his lung punctured by their team doctor prior to game 2 during the 2020 season.

Backtested Performance Week 6 to 21 From 2019

I deep dived into the backtesting here

Season To Date Performance

Below is the overall performance of the money line predictions for the year

<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> TotalPredictions </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> TotalCorrect </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> PctCorrect </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 161 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 111 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.69 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Below is the performance of the money line predictions based on the scoring bin.

Note - The model predicts the probability of the Home Team winning, so any score before .5 would be a bet for the away team. In the table below, I normalized the bins. The .6 bin is for all .6 probabilities, either for the Home Team or Away Team. A .6 probability for the Away Team would be .4 probability for the Home Team. A .6 probability for the Home Team would be a .4 probability for the Away Team.

<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> TotalPredictions </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> TotalCorrect </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> PctCorrect </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 61 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 41 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.67 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 63 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 40 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.63 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 34 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 27 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.79 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> .8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1.00 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Money Line Predictions For Week 12 2020

<table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> HomeTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> AwayTeam </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BinScore </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Prediction </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamWinProb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> HomeTeamLoseProb </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Washington Football Team </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Dallas Cowboys </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.63 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.37 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Detroit Lions </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Houston Texans </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.48 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.52 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Baltimore Ravens </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .7 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.70 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.30 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Las Vegas Raiders </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlanta Falcons </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.69 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.31 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Chargers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Buffalo Bills </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.70 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.30 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tennessee Titans </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Indianapolis Colts </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.60 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.40 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Carolina Panthers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Minnesota Vikings </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.63 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.37 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arizona Cardinals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New England Patriots </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> San Francisco 49ers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Los Angeles Rams </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.44 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.50 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .5 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Giants </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.44 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.56 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Cleveland Browns </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.37 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.63 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> New York Jets </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Miami Dolphins </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.32 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.68 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Denver Broncos </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> New Orleans Saints </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.39 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.61 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Chicago Bears </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Green Bay Packers </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.63 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.37 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> .6 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Seattle Seahawks </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.34 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0.66 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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NFL Money Line Predictions - Week 12 2020