NFL fans, we have good news! Not only is the regular season finally here, but it is a sensational slate of games to stick our teeth into! The schedule makers have treated us to some fantastic matchups, which our AI model has been breaking down in order to give us a cheeky little edge when it comes to placing our bets. Because, yes, not only are we embarking on a new season of NFL action, but also a new season of fantasy and betting success. What a great time of year this is.
We hope that you will join us here each and every week to break down the biggest edges our AI models can find, but if you want even more insights, why not join now to get access to all of our fantasy rankings, DFS tips, and betting predictions? All of these are generated by predictive models and artificial intelligence, outperforming public rankings like ESPN, CBS, etc. by an average of 22% over the last two years. Our subscription packages are a great way to give yourself an edge this year, but in the meantime, let’s see what values have been picked out for Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season.
Game Previews and Betting Suggestions
1. Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles
The bet: Over 49 points (-108)
Gridiron AI prediction: Median expected total of 56
Friday night is set up for a thrilling showdown in Brazil, which will be the first-ever NFL regular season clash to take place in South America. The two teams in question couldn't have finished last season more differently, with the Eagles crumbling in embarrassing fashion and the Packers surging late in the season to snatch a playoff spot and hammer the Cowboys in the Wild Card Round.
To start the 2024 campaign though, I expect both teams to be ready and raring to go. It is a big game for Jordan Love after his shiny new contract extension, but I think he is in a great spot going up against an Eagles secondary that conceded the second-most passing yards in 2023. Yes, the Eagles have addressed the issue by bringing in Vic Fangio at DC and two highly touted rookies in Cooper Dejean and Quinyon Mitchell, but it’s going to take time for them to gel. Add in the fact that James Bradberry has unfortunately had to start a stint on IR, and you get a vulnerable-looking secondary against a potent passing attack in Green Bay.
When you combine this with an Eagles offense who will be desperate to shake the stink of the 2023 season, I think we can expect a very high-scoring affair. Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert are an all-star team of offensive talent, and I am confident that the hiring of Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator will help put them all in a position to succeed.
This is a beauty of a Friday night clash, and I think the over is a great bet. Thankfully, I am backed up nicely by our Gridiron AI models, which suggest that the median score for Green Bay is 29 and the median score for the Eagles is 27. That sets us up with a median total of 56, which would comfortably beat what the bookies are giving us. Bet it now and enjoy the fireworks.
2. LA Rams at Detroit Lions
The bet: Rams to cover +3.5 (-110)
Gridiron AI predicted likelihood: 62%
Sunday Night Football is another mouthwatering clash, offering us a repeat of last year’s playoff game between the LA Rams and Detroit Lions. I think this will be another back-and-forth affair, and the model is giving LA a 62% chance of covering the spread of +3.5. I like that a lot. Yes, both teams are supremely talented, but I wouldn’t want to be giving 3.5 points to a loaded LA side that knows how to win.
Matthew Stafford is still slinging it, with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua both expected to be on the field and Kyren Williams offering more headaches out of the backfield. Several of the players on the roster won a Super Bowl with the Rams just a few years ago, including head coach and offensive mastermind Sean McVay. Having had a full offseason to prepare for this game, I think a spread of 3.5 is too generous, and I will gladly be taking it.
Of course, Detroit has their talent too, with the recently extended Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St Brown ready to wreak havoc alongside sophomore superstars Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta. They will also be the first team to benefit from facing an Aaron Donald-less Rams defensive line, but the Rams have made some smart moves over the offseason to make up for that, or at least try to. Let’s be real, there is no replacing Aaron Donald.
Nevertheless, I will be siding with the model and backing the Rams to cover. With both teams desperately wanting to start the season with a win, I will gladly take the 3.5 points in a game that I believe to be more of a 50/50 toss-up. Getting a Super Bowl-winning coach, quarterback, and wide receiver trio is a bonus as well.
3. Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns
The bet: Cowboys to cover +2.5 (-109)
Gridiron AI predicted likelihood: 66%
I know the Dallas Cowboys have had a curious offseason, but are we really putting them as 2.5-point underdogs against the Cleveland Browns? Yes, the Browns were one of the best defenses in the league when playing at home last year, but the Cowboys were one of the best teams in general. Dak Prescott was on fire throughout most of the season, coming second in MVP voting behind Lamar Jackson, mainly thanks to an unstoppable partnership with wide receiver CeeDee Lamb.
Lamb was truly unleashed as an elite offensive weapon after the team’s bye week, lining up all over the line of scrimmage and collecting 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns along the way. There are question marks over the Dallas backfield, and it can’t be understated how good Myles Garrett and company are in the Browns' defense, but I am not ready to trust the Browns over Dallas just yet.
On the topic of question marks, Cleveland have a pretty big one hanging over their starting quarterback Deshaun Watson. He has been a shell of himself ever since making the controversial move to the Dawg Pound, and he won’t have Nick Chubb helping lighten the load for the first half of the season. Dallas have talent of their own to boast about on defense, so I will happily side with the model here, which is giving them a 66% chance of covering the +2.5 spread.
4. Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills
The bet: Over 48 points (-110)
Gridiron AI prediction: Median expected total of 51
I like to think that Pro Football Focus (PFF) has a pretty good idea about player assessments, so their decision to rank Arizona dead last in their preseason secondary rankings is worth noting. Heading to Buffalo for a week 1 matchup against Josh Allen, therefore, is far from ideal, even without Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. However, Arizona have some exciting offensive firepower of their own, which makes me think this is going to be a high-scoring affair.
With Diggs and Davis now out of the equation, sophomore tight end Dalton Kincaid stands out as a new potential leader of the offense, but he is joined by an interesting group of wideouts. Keon Coleman arrived via the 2024 draft and Curtis Samuel arrived via free agency, partnering up with his old offensive coordinator Joe Brady. With Khalil Shakir already in place as a trusty weapon out of the slot and James Cook posing a threat out of the backfield, Josh Allen has plenty to work with.
There has been a lot of talk about a potential decline by Buffalo this season, but I think they are still loaded with talent, and this Arizona defense is the polar opposite, and potentially one of the worst in the league.
Buffalo is in a greater spot to rack up points, and I think Arizona might be as well. Kyler Murray is back to full health, now benefiting from a very talented group of playmakers. Fourth-overall pick Marvin Harrison Junior has the potential to completely transform the offense, combining with last year’s breakout tight end Trey McBride and veteran running back James Conner to offer a very potent threat.
Both offenses should enjoy week 1, and the AI models agree, giving Buffalo a median expected points total of 27 and Arizona 24. That’s good enough to beat the bookie's total of 49, which makes it a good bet in my eyes.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins
The bet: Jaguars to cover +3.5 (-114)
Gridiron AI predicted likelihood: 67%
The Jacksonville Jaguars are somewhat of a forgotten team in 2024, with most people handing the division title over to either Houston or Indianapolis and their exciting sophomore quarterbacks. Well, our model wants us all to take a step back and give Jacksonville their due, giving them a 67% chance of covering against the Miami Dolphins this weekend.
Miami will be no easy challenge, especially with Mike McDaniel likely scheming up some creative new play designs. However, Jacksonville has what it takes to compete. Keep in mind, this is a team that started 8-3 last season before a Week 13 high ankle sprain hobbled Trevor Lawrence against Cincinnati. That injury derailed their momentum and impacted Lawrence's play, leading to five straight losses to close out the season, and causing many to overlook the Jaguars as legitimate contenders.
However, with Arik Armstead now bolstering the defensive line, Josh Hines-Allen enjoying his new contract and Brian Thomas Junior coming in to replace Calvin Ridley, it would be foolish to rule them out just yet. There is talent all over this offense, and Miami are dealing with a serious shortage of pass rushers, with Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb not yet back from serious injury, and Shaquil Barrett announcing his surprise retirement just a few weeks ago. With that in mind, our model is throwing a lot of support behind the Jaguars covering +3.5.
6. Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
The bet: Chargers to cover -3 (-110)
Gridiron AI predicted likelihood: 66%
Another strong fancy by the model is the Los Angeles Chargers covering -3 against the Las Vegas Raiders. This game is the eagerly anticipated first sighting of Jim Harbaugh in SoFi stadium, and the first look at the Chargers with a desperately needed new identity. The Chargers have become a laughing stock over recent years, consistently underperforming and fumbling away wins. Last year’s dismal 5-win season was enough to see the back of Staley, and fans will be hoping that he takes the underwhelming reputation with him.
Harbaugh is a certified winner and a football guy, bringing in his tried and tested game plan of hard-nosed rushing and sturdy defense. The key player to watch in this game will be rookie Joe Alt, and he’s not hard to miss. The 6 foot 8 right tackle was taken 5th overall, with Harbaugh opting to bolster the offensive line instead of addressing the talent-poor wide receiver room. If Alt can hit the ground running, he could instantly give the Chargers the best tackle duo in the NFL, with Rashawn Slater on the other side of the line. That will be crucial in helping Harbaugh execute his run-heavy attack, and with an inter-divisional clash first up, it will be fascinating to see what that looks like.
The Raiders have some exciting talent of their own on offense, but it remains to be seen how much the presence of Gardner Minshew at quarterback caps their ceiling. They have a fearsome-looking defensive line as well, with Christian Wilkins coming in to join Maxx Crosby, but I think the raucous home crowd and Harbaugh touch helps lift the Chargers to a strong week 1 outing here. I’ll be backing them to cover.
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