What a week we were treated to in Week 8. The chaos of Cleveland downing Baltimore, New York falling to New England, and Jayden Daniels’ late hail mary for the win were almost too much for Scott Hansen to handle on Red Zone. It was a fantastic display of football and a reminder of why the NFL is the best reality TV show around. Also, it is great to see that scoring is firmly back in our lives.
This week, we have another exciting set of games on the docket, and our Gridiron AI model has pumped out some of its strongest convictions all year long. Let’s see what it fancies.
Game Previews and Betting Suggestions
LA Chargers @ Cleveland Browns
The Bet: Browns to cover +1.5 (-110)
Gridiron AI prediction: 78%
The strongest case to be made this week is for the Cleveland Browns, who are entering their home clash against the LA Chargers as 1.5-point underdogs. They will be going up against a very tough LA defense, but this is an entirely different Browns offense. Jameis Winston came out on fire against the Ravens last week, proving that the Cleveland front office had essentially been lying to their fanbase all season long about Deshaun Watson giving them the best chance to win.
Winston completed 66% of his passes for 334 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions, all of a sudden bringing to life a previously incompetent offense. Jerry Jeudy had juice, David Njoku was mossing defenders, and Cedric Tillman looks like the next big thing. Okay, there were some turnover-worthy plays in there, but that’s only because Jameis is willing to take the risks and open up the opportunity for big plays. He will be tested this week, though, against a Chargers unit that has given up the fewest points per game this year with 13 and is hovering around the top 10 as both a pass and rush defense.
It will be fascinating to see if Jameis can keep it going, and our models project that he does, giving Cleveland a 78% chance of covering the +1.5.
LA shouldn’t be overlooked, though. Justin Herbert has been unleashed over the last few weeks, playing some of the best football of his career, despite having minimal weapons of note to utilize. In the three games since his bye, Herbert has passed for 865 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. This week, he is going up against a Browns defense that has been nowhere near as dominant as they have been in recent years, but perhaps the Jameis effect will bring out the best in them as well. Boy, this team needed a boost, and they got it. Now, how far can they go?
Washington Commanders @ New York Giants
The Bet: Commanders to cover -3.5 (-110)
Gridiron AI prediction: 72%
Everything Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders touch turns to gold at the moment, so it is no surprise that our AI models back them to have a strong outing against the New York Giants, who are not enjoying anywhere near the same amount of success this year. Daniels’ Hail Mary at the end of last week’s game to defeat the Chicago Bears was just the latest in a long run of incredible achievements this year. The young quarterback is surely set to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award.
The New York Giants have remained one of the NFL’s most frustrating and disappointing teams this year, but they do at least have a defensive line to be proud of. They comfortably lead the league with 35 sacks, thanks mainly to the truly insane level of play coming from defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, who is in the running to win the Defensive Player of the Year Award. He and his colleagues along the defensive line won’t make this easy for Jayden Daniels, but this is still a game the Commanders should be expecting to win.
Daniels has been spectacular, passing for 1,736 yards, seven touchdowns, and two interceptions, in addition to running for 424 yards and four more scores on the ground. He is coming off his worst game from a completion percentage perspective but still managed to pass for 326 yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions against a very tough Chicago Bears defense. Nothing seems to phase him, and he’s playing like a veteran, not a rookie. Perhaps nobody is happier about his arrival than Terry McLaurin, who has 579 receiving yards and four touchdowns on the year, including three games with over 100 yards. He has been fully unleashed this year, and it is brilliant to see. The Giants’ secondary will struggle to keep him quiet.
When the Giants have the ball, it hasn’t exactly been pretty, with their 14.6 points per game ranking second worst in the NFL. Nevertheless, they did well in the draft and have two exciting rookies to keep an eye on. Malik Nabers has hit the ground running and looks like a seasoned pro at the wide receiver position, and Tyrone Tracy’s emergence as a stud fifth-round running back is another cause for excitement for Giants fans. Chances of team success this year are clearly very low, but a brighter future might be starting to materialize.
Unfortunately, for this game, it looks like Tracy might be missing due to a concussion, which is not going to help their cause, making the 3.5 points look like an even more likely cover for the Commanders. With the 72% likelihood predicted by our models, this looks like a good bet.
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
The Bet: Panthers to cover +7 (-110)
Gridiron AI prediction: 71%
The Carolina Panthers have been embarrassing this year and are on track to be granted the first overall pick for the third year in a row. At this point, it’s almost guaranteed that they will use it on a quarterback, despite the fact that Bryce Young actually looked a bit better last week against the tough Denver defense. Could it be that the benching has taken the pressure off him slightly and reset expectations? That will be something to watch for this week, going up against a struggling New Orleans Saints defense that is giving up the most yards per game, with 392.8.
Young surpassed the 200-yard barrier for the first time last week against a Denver defense that is one of the best in the league, and he now gets to face a Saints unit that is giving up 249.1 passing yards per game, which ranks 28th in the NFL. He won’t be able to enjoy the services of Diontae Johnson anymore, which will clear the path for more production to head in the direction of rookies Xavier Leggette and Jalen Coker. Relying on two rookies and an over-the-hill Adam Thielen is not exactly setting you up for success, but they did at least move the ball last week against Denver, and our models predict them to have some success this week as well against a much weaker opponent.
A spread of seven points is just too big, hence our models giving the Panthers a 71% chance of covering the +7. The New Orleans Saints simply aren’t good enough to be given that amount of respect, even against this feeble Panthers team. They are averaging just 15.6 points per game over the last six games and are now struggling with a banged-up wide receiver room and poor play from the offensive line. They started the season on fire, scoring 91 points in the first two games, but the collapse since then has been dramatic.
This is a badly coached, talent-poor team, whose season is already over, and they will be in the hunt for a new head coach soon. They shouldn’t be seven-point favorites over anybody, which makes the Panthers the bet here.
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
The Bet: Lions to cover -3.5 (-110)
Gridiron AI prediction: 63%
One of the games of the week is taking place in the late afternoon slot, pitting the NFC North-leading Detroit Lions against their division rivals, the Green Bay Packers. Unfortunately, a groin injury to Jordan Love could lower the entertainment value of this crucial clash, although Matt LaFleur has managed to steer Malik Willis to three wins in Love’s absence. Even if Love does play, the Detroit Lions are an incredibly daunting opponent, leading the league in points scored per game, with 33.4, and showing significant improvements on the defensive side of the ball. It is for that reason that our Gridiron AI models have made them one of the strongest bets of the week, giving them a 63% chance of covering -3.5.
The Detroit Lions are thriving at everything they try on offense at the moment, ranking sixth best in rushing yards per game with 156.7 and ranking first in the NFL for completion rate with 74.1%. We already knew it, but these numbers prove that Ben Johnson is a genius and the best offensive mind in the NFL at the moment. The Green Bay Packers have been stingy on defense, though, and will also benefit from being in their home stadium this week. Their last two home performances have seen them hold C.J. Stroud and the Texans to 22 points, and the Arizona Cardinals to 13, so this will be no walk in the park for Detroit.
When the Packers have been on offense, there has been a huge range of potential outcomes. Jordan Love is tied for second in the NFL with 15 passing touchdowns, despite playing two fewer games than anyone else in the top five, but he has also tied for the lead with nine interceptions. He is a boom-or-bust quarterback who loves to take risks, which will be interesting to watch against the Detroit Lions defense, which shares a similar approach. They are giving up the sixth most passing yards per game with 247.6, but are tied for the second most interceptions this year with 10.
Of course, there’s a high chance that Jordan doesn’t even play, which would be a shame for the neutral fans, and would lead to Green Bay relying much more on the run game. The Packers are currently fifth best in the NFL with 156.9 rushing yards per game, and LaFleur will have no problem relying heavily on Josh Jacobs and Malik Willis to hopefully bamboozle a Detroit defensive line that is giving up the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game, making this a real strength-on-strength matchup.
Nevertheless, the potential loss of Jordan Love, or the presence of a slightly injured Love, makes the Lions the choice here.
Chicago Bears @ Arizona Cardinals
The Bet: Bears to cover -1 (-110)
Gridiron AI prediction: 63%
Wrapping up this week’s preview is a very fun clash between Caleb Williams' Chicago Bears and Kyler Murray's Arizona Cardinals. With a spread of just one point, this is one of the tightest games of the week, and I’m not surprised. Chicago and Arizona are two teams who are difficult to figure out, showcasing the ability to blow up at any point, but also prone to delivering a dud.
Our models will be backing the Chicago Bears, giving them a 63% chance of covering the -1. Remember, they were just one Hail Mary away from pinching a win against the surging Washington Commanders, despite being the inferior team all game long. If Tyreek Stevenson stays focused on that play and the Hail Mary falls incomplete, we would be looking at this team completely differently. The defense is a very talented unit, restricting teams to just 17 points per game this year, which is fourth-best in the NFL.
The offense has been much less fluid, but we know that the talent is there, and when Caleb Williams has looked composed in the pocket, he has been able to deliver at a high level. Washington has tightened up their defense a lot over recent weeks, but they can be attacked. With DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Keenan Allen, Williams benefits from useful weapons for any difficult scenario he might find himself in, and any one of them can come up with a big play at any moment. Arizona boasts a much less intimidating group of playmakers, led by tight end Trey McBride, and rookie Marvin Harrison Jr., who has been very up-and-down this year so far.
Marv is coming off his best game yet, and the change in his usage is very promising for Arizona in general, but this defense should be able to keep a lid on him and the rest of the offense. The Chicago Bears are just a much more well-rounded team, and our models appear to agree, giving them a 63% chance of covering the -1.