The Week Seven NFL slate was peppered with intriguing matchups that changed how we view several of the league’s best teams. The best matchup of the week was probably the Detroit Lions handing Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings their first loss of the season to claim the top spot in the NFC North. The Packers also grabbed a huge win this week, barely edging the Houston Texans in a 24-22 victory, which brings them to 5-2. Kansas City won their Super Bowl rematch against the San Francisco 49ers in a game that wasn’t particularly close, and Russell Wilson shone brightly in his first start for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
It was a fascinating week that was arguably the best slate of the season so far. So, with that in mind, can Week 8 keep the good vibes flowing? Let's see what matchups our model has picked out.
Game Previews and Betting Suggestions
Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers
The Bet: Denver to cover -8 (-110)
Gridiron AI prediction: 67%
The Carolina Panthers’ resurrection under Andy Dalton was short-lived. After logging a win in his first game of the season against the Raiders in Week Three, the Panthers have fallen back into their losing ways. Their most recent loss before the bye week was arguably their worst yet, going down 40-7 to Marcus Mariota filling in for the injured Jayden Daniels. While it's not too surprising that Washington’s high-powered offense dropped 40, how little Carolina was able to accomplish on offense is a very bad sign. The Commanders’ defense has been exploited at times this season, so it seems the Panthers are simply getting in their own way.
On the other hand, the Denver Broncos have won four of their last five games, including a 33-10 drubbing of the New Orleans Saints in their most recent bout. There might have been some extra whiteboard material for Sean Payton’s revenge game against his former team, but all signs point to the Broncos’ winning streak continuing at home against Carolina in Week Eight. Bo Nix is doing just enough to allow the team to function like a real NFL team, and the run game is starting to heat up with Javonte Williams leading the way. Not to mention, Pat Surtain has been completely dominant this year and is shutting down opposing teams’ number-one wideouts every single week.
The Panthers don’t really stand a chance in this one, and the only argument to be made for them covering is because the spread is so wide at -8 in favor of the Broncos. It's certainly possible that the Panthers could stay within that margin, but their average margin of loss over the past four weeks is an insane 21.75 points, so there’s really no reason to believe this week should have a different outcome. That’s exactly why Gridiron AI gives the Denver Broncos a 67% chance to cover, the highest chance of any team this week.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Giants
The Bet: Pittsburgh to cover -6.5 (-110)
Gridiron AI prediction: 67%
Russell Wilson has officially arrived, and after a lot of criticism for benching Justin Fields, who led the team to a 4-2 record, the former Seahawks legend showed exactly why this is his job to lose. Wilson was 16/29 for 264 yards and two touchdowns with no turnovers on the day, and the Steelers run game was effective as well, with Najee Harris totaling over 100 yards and a score himself. George Pickens finally became involved in the offense like everyone had envisioned at the start of the season, hauling in 5 passes for 111 yards and a touchdown on 9 targets, and Wilson targeted seven different pass-catchers in the win. While Fields' style of play may be exciting, if Russ can continue to perform at this level, his playstyle is much more sustainable for both the quarterback’s short-term health and limiting turnovers.
The Giants, though, are a hot mess. Their most recent loss might be their worst so far on the year, going down 28-3 to an Eagles team that has had its fair share of struggles in other matchups. Daniel Jones didn’t even cross 100 yards in the game and took seven sacks for a 56-yard loss. The run game was nowhere to be seen: Tyrone Tracy led the team with 6 carries for 23 yards, and Drew Lock’s one keeper in relief of Jones led the team in average yards per rush. This O-line truly cannot protect Jones, who isn’t a great quarterback even when he has time in the pocket, so a matchup on Monday Night Football against T.J. Watt and this cutthroat Steelers defense is essentially a death sentence.
After entering the season viewed as potential wild-card fodder without any expectations of truly contending, the Steelers are now real players in the AFC and are blowing out bad teams instead of barely scraping by to 9-7 record. With Mike Tomlin on the headset, this team is one of, if not the most, well-coached teams in football week in and week out, and this game against New York will show a clear difference in the level of discipline and talent, which is why Gridiron AI has them tied for the highest chance to cover the spread at -6.5 points this week.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. New Orleans Saints
The Bet: Los Angeles to cover -7 (-110)
Gridiron AI prediction: 65%
The New Orleans Saints’ fall-off since Week Two has been unprecedented. After looking like a true contender through the first couple of games of the season, New Orleans had an astronomical collapse, and have since lost 5 straight. Now the team is completely overrun with injuries: Spencer Rattler is in for Derek Carr, Chris Olave is week-to-week, Rashid Shaheed and Paulson Adebo are both done for the year, and many depth pieces at corner and offensive line are on injured reserve, as well as several key players continuing to play through injury.
The team looked like a shell of its former self against the Denver Broncos on Sunday, and that resulted in a 33-10 loss. Over the last four weeks, the defense has been absolutely atrocious, giving up an average of 34 points per game, while the offense has averaged just 18.5 over that same span. Because of all their personnel issues, it seems pretty obvious what the outcome for New Orleans’ game this week will be, but the question is by how much.
Although better, the Chargers haven’t looked great so far either. After losing to the Cardinals 17-15 in a MNF doubleheader, the Chargers are now 3-4 and have lost three of their past four outings. Justin Herbert is currently playing through injury, as it seems he always is, and the team has a clear lack of talent at wide receiver that is severely limiting the offense.
Still, Jim Harbaugh is an experienced coach, and this is exactly the type of matchup where he almost guarantees a win. Holistically, this team is much more talented than the roster that the Saints are fielding currently, and the only question is whether they will be able to win by a full touchdown. Even with the Chargers’ struggles offensively in recent weeks, they are essentially playing against a team of backups, so there’s a great chance for them to put up big points. For those reasons, Gridiron AI gives them a 65% chance to cover the -7 spread, the third-highest chance of any matchup this week.
Washington Commanders vs. Chicago Bears
The Bet: Washington to cover +2.5 (-110)
Gridiron AI prediction: 63%
This is potentially one of the most intriguing matchups of Week Eight, with young superstar quarterbacks Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams set to duel it out in the Sunday afternoon slate. Daniels is currently listed as questionable with a rib injury, but based on the information that’s currently available, he’s expected to suit up, and Vegas’ odds support that. Even including their most recent game where Daniels exited early with injury, the Commanders are leading the NFL with a ridiculous 31.1 points per game. The Bears' defense will make things much tougher than the average opponent, with a solid pass rush, an elite secondary, and maybe the best linebacker room in football, but nothing seems like too tall a task for Washington’s offense right now.
Although Daniels became the early favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year, Williams has turned it up a notch as of late, leading the Bears to three straight wins with a touchdown to interception ratio of 7:1. The Bears offense has succeeded accordingly, posting back-to-back 35+ point games against the Panthers and Jaguars, but that is to be expected. The Commanders' defense is certainly more difficult to line up against than their previous three opponents, but they’ve had their fair share of issues. Still, based on how Washington’s offense has been playing, a shootout is exactly the type of game they can come out on top of, and Caleb still has more to prove in that department. To be able to pick Daniels and the Commanders not even to win, but just to cover a +2.5 point spread is essentially an irresistible opportunity at this point. It's not very often a team this hot isn't even favored to win against an opponent that still has a lot to prove, which is exactly why Gridiron AI gives Washington a 63% chance to come out on the winning side of this spread.
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers
The Bet: Dallas to cover +4.5 (-110)
Gridiron AI prediction: 62%
The Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers are at similar spots heading into Week Eight of the NFL season. Both teams are at a major crossroads, and the outcome of this game may decide which franchise continues on as a contender and which descends into irrelevance. The Cowboys are currently 3-3, but are coming off a soul-crushing loss at the hands of the Detroit Lions, with a final score of 47-9. Mike McCarthy’s roster still has a lot of talent on paper, but it's evident that this defense has taken a significant step back from years past, even with the return of Micah Parsons. Their bye week in Week Seven couldn’t have come at a better time for a team that needs to regroup and get back to the drawing board, but a matchup against the Niners is a tough reality check.
Fortunately for them, the Niners have completely underwhelmed and are dealing with serious injury issues across the board. They now sit at 3-4 after their loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in which Brock Purdy threw 3 picks, and Brandon Aiyuk is lost for the season after a knee hyperextension caused him to tear both his ACL and MCL. To make matters worse, Deebo Samuel was hospitalized just before Sunday’s game with a pneumonia diagnosis, and though that shouldn’t be a long-term issue, there isn’t a clear timetable for his return yet.
Purdy has been stripped of the core of weapons that has allowed him to operate at such a high level thus far in his career, with George Kittle being the only superstar skill position player who's even available for their game against Dallas. It’s hard to even imagine what this 49ers offense is going to look like, but based on their performance against the Chiefs, it's probably not going to be pretty. Mahomes didn’t even look good either, throwing no touchdowns and two picks of his own, but they still trounced the 49ers 28-18, and San Fran’s last score came in garbage time to make the game appear closer than it actually was. With so many injuries certain to affect the play of this 49ers offense, it’s hard to pick against the Cowboys to bounce back here, and a spread of +4.5 is essentially a no-brainer. Gridiron AI agrees, giving Dallas a 62% chance to cover.