Week 5 of the NFL continued to develop our understanding of who each of these teams really are, separating the cream of the crop from the average. Houston got a big win over Buffalo, the Ravens somehow managed a win over Cincinnati, and Minnesota and Kansas City stayed perfect. Plus, Kirk Cousins showed us that he’s fully healthy and able to ball out at an elite level given the right circumstances, throwing for over 500 yards against Baker and the Bucs. The first firing of the year just occurred, as the Jets parted ways with Robert Saleh following a 2-3 start, which signals the critical nature of every game moving forward. With that being said, let’s get right into the Week 6 slate.
Game Previews and Betting Suggestions
Denver Broncos vs. LA Chargers
- The Bet: Denver to cover +3 (-110)
- Gridiron AI prediction: 75%
In Gridiron AI’s strongest prediction this week, we have the Denver Broncos covering a three-point spread over the LA Chargers at home. Denver has been a team that’s hard to pin down so far in 2024, living and dying by the arm (and legs) of Bo Nix. Despite a heated exchange between Sean Payton and his young signal caller, a big game for Nix against the Raiders now has the rook poised to prove he’s capable of being a starter in the National Football League. Quietly the Broncos have rattled off three in a row, and now sit above .500. On the contrary, the Chargers are coming off a much-needed early bye week after two consecutive losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs. Justin Herbert is banged up, and while this running game is starting to show some potential, this offense really isn’t the same when Herbert isn’t healthy. The defense, on the other hand, has played spectacularly, allowing an average of 12.5 points per game, which is first in the NFL.
If this balanced Denver offense can keep things rolling against LA, it shouldn’t take too many points to put this game out of reach. The Chargers simply don’t have a ton of playmakers: Ladd McConkey is starting to carve out a nice role, but isn’t good enough to carry this position group just yet. Pat Surtain is taking victims every game, including the entire Raiders offense last week on his 100-yard pick-six. All things considered, it’s going to be incredibly difficult for the Chargers to get anything going on offense. With low scoring on both sides, it's not hard to imagine an outcome where Denver comes within three points, which is why Gridiron AI believes the Broncos have such a high chance to cover.
Cleveland Browns @ Philadelphia Eagles
- The Bet: Cleveland to cover +8.5 (-110)
- Gridiron AI prediction: 66%
No one is denying it, the Cleveland Browns are playing ugly football in 2024. Deshaun Watson is yet to cross the 200-yard mark in a single game during this campaign, and the Browns have lost three straight games. Two of those losses came against some of the worst teams in the league, the Raiders and Giants, and only two teams have scored fewer cumulative points than Cleveland through 5 games.
Of all teams to be favored by 8.5 points, the Philadelphia Eagles are not a confident one. Currently sitting at 2-2 off the bye, Philly has not found an identity yet this year other than hoping Saquon Barkley can force them to win games. Against a lot of teams, that might be good enough, but not against the Cleveland Browns. Despite having one of the better defenses in football, Jayden Daniels just showed last week that you can beat Cleveland through the air. What you cannot do, however, is run the ball straight into Myles Garrett. Jalen Hurts has not looked himself all season, even in the wins, and he’s going to have to do the heavy lifting here for Philly to escape with another victory. Regardless, picking the Eagles, maybe the most inconsistent team in football, by 8.5 points against almost anyone is reckless, especially considering how many upsets and close games we’ve seen thus far in the 2024 season.
Sure, the Eagles have played against some tough competition, but each of the two games they won this year came by an average of 4 points. So projecting now that they are going to blow out the Browns feels overly reactionary to Cleveland’s loss last week, and that’s why Gridiron AI recommends the Browns to cover as one of its top picks of the week.
New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans
- The Bet: New England to cover +7 (-110)
- Gridiron AI prediction: 64%
The Houston Texans are fresh off a huge, confidence-boosting win over the Buffalo Bills in Week 5, and are looking to keep it coming against the Patriots this week. The C.J. Stroud to Nico Collins connection has been one of the best on any team this year, and Stefon Diggs has been a steady contributor as well. Houston is still sorely missing Joe Mixon’s presence in the run game, but have still shown the ability to handle their business in the meantime. Considering all that, you might be thinking, “Why would we then pick the New England Patriots to cover +7?” The real answer is, that Houston has played opponents close all season, and Nico Collins' hamstring injury is no small issue. In all 5 victories this year for the Houston Texans, the end result has been a one-score game. That includes wins over bottom-feeders like the Colts and Jags, and a Bears team that struggled early on.
New England is the perfect team to play opponents closely. Three of their 5 games so far have been within one score, including their win over the Cincinnati Bengals in week one, and their OT loss to a strong Seahawks squad in Week 2. Their emphasis on a strong run game between Antonio Gibson and Rhamondre Stevenson, who got a decent workload despite some concerns about trust from the coaches, will work to shorten the length of games. When games are shorter, they have fewer plays, and when there are fewer plays, there are fewer points, which means the end score has a much higher likelihood of being within one possession.
We are also now going to get the addition of an x-factor in the shape of rookie quarterback Drake Maye. Surely he can give the Pats a boost and an upgrade over Brissett, which is just another reason why the Gridiron AI model has the Pats to cover +7.
Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Giants
- The Bet: Cincinnati to cover -3.5 (-110)
- Gridiron AI prediction: 61%
The 2024 Cincinnati Bengals are the textbook definition of an underachiever. Despite nearly flawless play from Joe Burrow over the past few weeks, the Bengals are currently 1-4, when in reality they should be well above .500. Their offense is scoring at the 4th highest clip of any team in the NFL, and while you have to be careful when invalidating wins and losses, if 5 or 6 plays went differently, the Bengals could legitimately be 5-0 right now. A botched field goal against the Ravens, the inability to get a single stop against the Commanders, a back-breaking PI call against the Chiefs, and a slow start against the Patriots in week one are all contributing factors to this team’s record right now, and while they did actually happen, their record isn’t really an accurate representation of their playing level.
The Giants, on the other hand, are coming off a big win over a good Seahawks team coached by Mike McDaniel, but are incredibly talent-deficient on offense outside of their rookie wideout, Malik Nabers. Daniel Jones made the unit look solid last week, and they are poised for another good outing against a weak Bengals defense, but they simply are not going to be able to keep up with Joe Burrow. Cincinnati’s quarterback is playing at the top of his game right now, throwing for nearly 400 yards and 5 touchdowns in their most recent loss, and the Giants simply don’t have the personnel to compete. With the Bengals heavily emphasizing the passing game, there’s going to be ample opportunity to form a big lead, and a 3.5-point spread should not be cause for concern. For those reasons, Gridiron AI has the Bengals covering in this one.
Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons
- The Bet: Carolina to cover +6 (-110)
- Gridiron AI prediction: 60%
The Atlanta Falcons are coming off a monumental OT win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but let’s not overreact to what happened last week. The Bucs’ secondary is clearly dealing with issues: after allowing Bo Nix and the Broncos to score 26 points in the win, Kirk Cousins just had the game of his life against them. So while there is significant reason to feel good about this Atlanta offense, take the gaudy stats from last week with a grain of salt. In all four of their previous games, the Falcons' offense has simply been okay, Bijan Robinson hasn’t lived up to expectations, and Kirk Cousins has shown flashes of greatness but mostly just been serviceable.
Carolina has experienced a massive performance boost since the benching of Bryce Young, with Andy Dalton logging a nice win over the Raiders and a competitive game against Joe Burrow’s Bengals. Obviously, last week against the Chicago Bears was a mess, but Chicago’s defense is easily one of the best in the NFL. With all the coverage Kirk Cousins and the Falcons offense is getting, don’t forget that their defense also gave up 30 points last week. The Falcons should certainly be favored in this one, but -6 against a division rival that’s starting to put things together seems a little rich. Much like the Eagles, the Falcons' offense is the epitome of inconsistency, with Bijan, Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Kyle Pitts rarely putting up two good games in a row. Counting on that team to outscore Carolina by an entire touchdown isn’t great odds, which is why Gridiron AI has the Panthers covering +6.