We’ve now seen four weeks of football, and the fraudulent teams have really started to show themselves. The Philadelphia Eagles got embarrassed on the road against Baker’s Bucs, and it's starting to feel like a continuation of the slump that ended last year. New Orleans have crashed back to earth a bit after their red hot start, but the Minnesota Vikings do, in fact, appear to be the real deal. Sam Darnold! Who’d have thought?
Over in the AFC, Aaron Rodgers’ Jets looked anemic; Bo Nix had 7 completions for -7 passing yards at halftime, and the Denver Broncos still emerged with a 10-9 victory. Plus, even though both teams are going to be okay in the long run, the Buffalo Bills got decimated by the one-man army that was Derrick Henry on Sunday night, tallying 210 total yards of offense and two touchdowns, including an 87 yarder on Baltimore’s very first play. So with all of that in mind, let’s see what our models have picked out for week 5.
Game Previews and Betting Suggestions
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans
The Bet: Buffalo to cover +1 (-110)
Gridiron AI prediction: 75%
Despite being just a -1 spread in favor of the Texans, this is tied for the highest percentage pick of the week by the Gridiron AI models, at 75%. The Bills and Texans both had rocky showings last week, with Houston nearly going down to the now 0-4 Jaguars before CJ Stroud assembled a clutch touchdown drive to take the lead in the waning moments. Buffalo, on the other hand, didn’t come out on top. Allen was stifled by a Ravens defense that hasn’t looked great all year, and Henry and Lamar ran away with a 35-10 blowout victory. The Texans suffered a similar loss just two weeks ago at the hands of Sam Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings, losing 34-7, so they aren’t without their own criticisms. In fact, Buffalo has downed several good teams on the season, trouncing Jacksonville and Miami, and winning a close game against the Cardinals in week one. All three of Houston’s wins have come in close games against not-great competition, including the Colts, Bears, and Jags.
While it’s understandable that Houston is given the edge at home, the Bills have actually proven a lot more on the field so far this season. Josh Allen has played at an elite level in every game except against the Ravens, and the Texans' offense has been sufficient, but not as high-powered as one would expect. If we use the Jaguars as a benchmark to measure each team, Buffalo had a point differential of +37 compared to Houston’s +4, which was honestly fortunate not to be a loss. So with that being said, take Buffalo to bounce back in a major way this week. Even though both of these teams are 3-1, Buffalo is clearly the superior squad through four weeks, which is why Gridiron AI believes this is the strongest pick of the week.
Dolphins @ Patriots
The Bet: Miami to cover +2 (-110)
Gridiron AI prediction: 75%
Tied with the first prediction, we have the Miami Dolphins covering the spread against the New England Patriots. Both teams are coming off brutal losses, with the Dolphins severely missing the presence of Tua Tagovailoa, and Jacoby Brissett showing why he’s been a career backup. The prospects of neither team are looking good right now, but the Dolphins have a much more talented roster overall. The offense was ugly on Monday night, but with Tyler Huntley getting another week of practice in Mike McDaniel’s complex offense, there’s an opportunity for some significant progression here. And with weapons like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De’Von Achane, all Huntley really has to do is get the ball in the hands of his playmakers, even if most of his passes are completed around the line of scrimmage.
There’s no reason to believe Jacoby Brissett and the Pats offense is going to make any significant improvements this week, and against a Miami defense that has serious talent, this is a serious chance for the Dolphins to stop the free fall. Brissett hasn’t thrown for more than 168 yards in a game yet this year, and while he isn’t turning the ball over at a high clip, he isn’t doing much productively with it either.
The Patriots are likely to try to establish the run game early, but without much brewing through the air, the Miami defense will be able to focus heavily on plugging the holes up front. Even if Tyler Huntley’s offense can show slight improvement over what they were able to accomplish against the Titans, it will make things exponentially easier for a defense that simply couldn’t get off the field. Don’t forget, the Patriots are supposed to be a complete rebuild, and even though the Dolphins don’t have Tua, this was a championship contender squad just three weeks ago. All Miami has to do is come within a few points of one of the worst teams in the NFL, and that’s why Gridiron AI gives them such a high chance to cover this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
The Bet: Buccaneers to cover +3 (110)
Gridiron AI prediction: 66%
Now, this is an interesting one. Both the Falcons and Buccaneers are optimistic franchises, after being deemed the worst division in football before week one. Atlanta just downed their bitter rivals, the New Orleans Saints, who were red hot before losing two consecutive games to drop back to .500. Baker and Tampa Bay had an electric outing against Philly, with almost as perfect a start as you could imagine, which was good to see following a rough week three performance against the Broncos. This offense is truly special when Mayfield is playing at his best, which has been true three out of four weeks so far this season. His connection with Evans and Godwin has been essentially automatic this year, and they are lighting up opposing defenses. Last week was his highest yardage mark of this campaign, with 347 and two touchdowns coming through the air with no picks.
Things aren’t going quite as smoothly for Kirk and Atlanta’s offense. Cousins threw for a respectable 238 yards on 35 attempts last week, but with zero touchdowns and an interception to go with it. He’s certainly improved since a dreadful week one performance, but it seems like he still might not be fully recovered from the Achilles tear he suffered last season. And the Falcons are not going to be able to rely on the run game against this Tampa front. Vita Vea just single-handedly wrecked the middle of the field on every inside handoff for Philly last week, and if not for the single long stretch run, Saquon would’ve had an atrocious stat line after that game. For whatever reason, the Falcons still have an obsession with giving the ball to Tyler Algier ten times a game with Bijan on the sideline, which isn’t going to cut it against TB. The Bucs just match up too well in this one, so covering a field goal spread shouldn’t be difficult at all, and the AI model agrees.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New Orleans Saints
The Bet: Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 (-110)
Gridiron AI prediction: 56%
Say what you want about Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, but the fact of the matter is, they’re 4-0. KC is one of two teams still undefeated heading into week two, and for good reason. For all the flack this offense is getting from the media, some of which is deserved, this defense is elite.
In reality, the Chiefs have played four good teams so far this year: the Ravens, Bengals, Falcons, and Chargers. Their 23 points scored per game is slightly above league average, and it's coming against some pretty difficult defenses. On the other hand, while playing some of the league’s top offenses, this team has allowed the 7th fewest points per game, with opposing teams averaging a measly 18. That equates to an average margin of victory of 5 points despite playing against some of the best competition in the league.
Now they’re set to face the Saints, who have fallen from grace from their performance in the first two weeks, which feels like a long time ago at this point. Carr is averaging about 200 yards, .5 touchdowns, and 1 pick over his last two games, which is underwhelming, to say the least. His cumulative completion percentage of 72% is artificially inflated by dump-off passes to Alvin Kamara, and doesn’t really reflect how this offense has moved the ball. New Orleans doesn’t match up well against the Chiefs, who boast a speedy, athletic linebacker group that’s going to keep Kamara from being a difference-maker out of the backfield. And any running lanes up the gut that would be there against most teams simply won’t be against Chris Jones. Don’t get me wrong, this Saints defensive unit has been good too, but against a worse sample of offenses. When in doubt, always trust the defending back-to-back Super Bowl champions; which is why the AI gives them a 56% chance to win by a touchdown.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Bet: Cincinnati to Cover +1 (-110)
Gridiron AI prediction: 56%
The final pick for this week’s NFL prediction and betting preview has the Cincinnati Bengals covering a one point differential at home against the Baltimore Ravens. Sure, the Ravens are a hot team right now, and Derrick Henry is a real problem, but don’t underestimate this Bengals offense. Their 0-3 start was no fault of theirs, having been a top ten unit thus far, landing 25 points on the Chiefs, 33 against the Commanders, and 34 against the Carolina Panthers over the last three weeks. Joe Burrow has a 7-1 touchdown ratio since week two, and is averaging 271 yards per game over that span. Not to mention, Zack Moss and Chase Brown have made for a more than competent duo over the past few weeks, and have helped provide some balance to this pass-heavy offense.
It goes without saying that the Ravens are a great team, and they’re going to score points of their own, but this team is weak at corner, which Burrow is going to be able to easily exploit. The Bills have a somewhat hampered passing attack with a completely new receiving core, and they rely on the run game to clear space for passes. But with the run game not working, they were completely stymied through the air. That’s not going to be the case for Cincinnati, which has Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and a young talent in Andrei Iosivas who are going to collectively make life very difficult for this Baltimore secondary.
With that being said, this Bengals defense isn’t exactly a bastion. Henry and Lamar are poised to have plenty of success on the ground, and Zay Flowers has a great opportunity to make some big chunk plays downfield. But this Ravens’ passing attack feels a bit undermanned, so it’s hard to say if they’ll be able to truly take advantage of the Bengals’ weak back end. Either way, this has shootout written all over it, and is sure to be a close matchup. That’s why Gridiron AI gives Cincinnati a 56% chance to cover the 1-point spread.