Does anyone know where things truly stand after two weeks of the NFL season? After some of the weird results we saw in Week 1, it seems Week 2 has over-corrected, keeping us in the dark, with powerhouses such as San Francisco, Baltimore, Dallas, and Detroit all losing to teams that were considerable underdogs.
Are we really meant to believe that New Orleans and Tampa Bay are the new kings of the NFL? Hopefully, we’ll get a clearer picture after Week 3, with another juicy slate of games to enjoy. Let’s dig into some of the best matchups of the week and break down what our AI models have predicted as the best bets.
Game Previews and Betting Suggestions
1. Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints
- The bet: New Orleans to cover -3 (-110)
- Gridiron AI prediction: 64%
What a dream start to the 2024 season this has been for New Orleans. Their fans must be pinching themselves, watching a team that appeared to start the season with flaws all over the roster, only to roll over their first two opponents. The Week 1 demolition of Carolina was initially attributed to the Panthers simply being abysmal. However, when the Saints landed 35 first-half points on the Cowboys, a playoff team from last year, people suddenly started to take notice.
It has been a truly remarkable turnaround, with every single element of the team taking huge strides forward, none more so than the offensive line, which entered the season as PFF’s second-worst in their preseason rankings. Well, after two weeks, that couldn’t look further from the truth. They are protecting Derek Carr well and working in perfect unison in Klint Kubiak’s run game.
Carr himself is playing with excellent efficiency, feeding his primary receivers and connecting with Rashid Shaheed on stunning deep touchdowns in both games. Alvin Kamara looks back to his elusive best as well, which has contributed to an outrageous 91 team points over the first two weeks.
This week, they go up against a Philly defense that has been disjointed over the first two games. Kirk Cousins moved the ball with ease against them on the final drive, and there wasn’t enough pressure from Jalen Carter and company on the d-line. That spells danger when going up against a red-hot Saints offense.
The Eagles have some firepower of their own, even without A.J. Brown. DeVonta Smith is as reliable and talented as they come, and Saquon Barkley is proving as good as anyone could have hoped. However, there have been too many mistakes from Hurts so far this season, and I think this Saints team is going to be too much for them, particularly in their Superdome. Our models agree, giving New Orleans a 64% chance of covering.
2. Chicago Bears @ Indianapolis Colts
- The bet: Chicago to cover +1.5 (-110)
- Gridiron AI predicted likelihood: 64%
It has been a tough start to the season for Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears, giving fans a terrifying flashback to the earliest days of Justin Fields. It’s obviously too early to condemn Williams to the same fate as Fields, especially since there’s no doubt that Williams is a far more talented prospect, but the warning signs are there.
Much has been made of the weapons that GM Ryan Poles brought in to support Caleb Williams, but the real priority should have been the offensive line. Williams has been constantly under pressure, and the worst-case scenario for Chicago will be if he loses confidence in the pocket and struggles to keep his eyes downfield. Thankfully, he should get a bit of respite this week, going up against an Indianapolis defensive line that just lost DeForest Buckner. The Colts have also been gashed by the run already this year, so hopefully, Chicago can establish a bit of a ground game to lighten the load on Williams.
While the Bears’ offense is taking time to gel, their defense is having no such problems. They completely put the clamps on the Texans in the second half of their Week 2 fixture, after managing to salvage a win against the Titans in Week 1. This week, they’ll have their eyes on Anthony Richardson, who despite being capable of making some of the most jaw-dropping plays in the NFL, has proven to be mistake-prone. His accuracy is definitely still a problem, leading to three interceptions in Week 2, although one came on an ambitious Hail Mary attempt.
Despite these issues, the Colts should not be underestimated. Jonathan Taylor remains one of the best running backs in the NFL, and Michael Pittman headlines an intriguing pass-catching corps that’s dripping with explosive talent in the form of Adonai Mitchell, Alec Pierce, and possibly Josh Downs.
This game should be a brilliant watch, but the lack of defensive pressure should help Caleb Williams turn out his best offensive performance yet. Our models give Chicago a 64% chance of covering.
3. Green Bay Packers @ Tennessee Titans
- The bet: Tennessee to cover -2.5 (-110)
- Gridiron AI predicted likelihood: 62%
Mike LaFleur delivered one of the best coaching performances of the season so far by managing to squeeze out a win with Malik Willis at quarterback. He did so by getting deep into his playbook to inflict every kind of run play you can imagine on a porous Indianapolis defense. It was a remarkable effort, but it will be a challenge to repeat, especially given that everyone knows what to expect now.
Tennessee is much stingier on the ground, giving up just 92.5 yards per game so far, good enough to put them in the top 10. Their defense has been impressive, despite the losses, which means I expect Green Bay to have much less success this time around. The key for Tennessee will be to make Willis throw the ball, and I think they should be able to do that. In that scenario, Tennessee should feel confident about walking away with the win, and this is backed up by our models giving them a 62% chance of covering -2.5.
Of course, the other thing Tennessee needs to do is stop producing insane turnovers. I’m looking at you, Will Levis! The Titans’ sophomore quarterback is capable of incredible plays but is also making costly mistakes. Levis just needs to distribute the ball to his playmakers and not turn the ball over. Calvin Ridley flashed some explosiveness, and Tony Pollard has been great in the run game so far. Levis just needs to let them do the hard work for him, with him contributing a couple of big plays when the time is right.
Hopefully, head coach Brian Callahan has managed to cut down on the mistakes in Levis' game, which is probably all it will take to walk away with a comfortable victory here. It’s getting to must-win territory for the Titans, and they cannot afford to let another win slip away against a Jordan Love–less Packers team.
4. Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals
- The bet: Detroit to cover -3 (-110)
- Gridiron AI predicted likelihood: 59%
This one is shaping up to be an absolute barnstormer between two very talented offenses. Arizona announced their arrival last week by dropping 41 points on the LA Rams. Kyler Murray looked back to his brilliant best, firing beautiful passes downfield and making magic happen with his legs. For Arizona fans, the biggest relief was seeing Marvin Harrison Jr. have a big day, answering any doubts that lingered after his shockingly quiet Week 1 outing.
When you factor in James Conner, one of the most reliable do-it-all backs in the NFL, and Trey McBride, a rising star at tight end, this is suddenly one of the league's most exciting offenses. And while the defense lacks top-end talent, they proved they could hold their own against the Rams in Week 2. It’s worth pointing out that the Rams' offensive line was severely depleted, but Arizona still gave plenty of reasons for optimism.
There is also immense talent on the Detroit side, which suggests this could be a high-scoring affair. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs are all among the best at their respective positions, but they’ve been held back by some uncharacteristic Jared Goff errors. He already has three interceptions on the season to just one touchdown. Both he and Lions fans will be eager to see him get back on track, especially given that he just signed a lucrative contract extension.
Arguably, the best player on the Lions is defensive end Aidan Hutchinson, who has started his third NFL season red-hot. He already has 5.5 sacks, thanks to a 4.5-sack performance against the Buccaneers last week. With the Arizona Cardinals boasting such a talented offense, Hutchinson will be key in keeping them in check.
While the Cardinals have plenty to be excited about, it’s important not to forget that this Lions team was just two quarters away from the Super Bowl last year. Furthermore, Arizona’s dominant performance last week came against a Rams team struggling with injuries. I expect the Lions to enter this game angry and with a point to prove, and Ben Johnson should have no problem scheming up big plays for his explosive playmakers against this talent-poor defense. Our models give Detroit a 59% chance of covering this week, which looks like a solid bet to me.
5. Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons
- The bet: Kansas City to Cover -4 (-110)
- Gridiron AI predicted likelihood: 76%
To wrap up this week, let’s take a look at a very interesting clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta was so close to going 0-2 on Monday night, but a clutch drive from Kirk Cousins gave them some much-needed momentum. It wasn’t a great all-around day for Cousins, but he can take great confidence from his performance on the final drive, which proved he can still get it done after the Achilles tear.
The star of the season so far for Atlanta has been Bijan Robinson, one of the most exciting running backs to watch in the entire NFL. His ability to cut at pace is second to none, and he’s also a lethal threat as a receiver. Kyle Pitts and Drake London haven’t yet gelled in the new system, but there’s still time. Fans will be hoping they can do so this week, as it will need to be all hands on deck to take down the Chiefs.
On the Kansas City side, the offensive upgrades haven’t quite produced the improvements fans hoped for. This is partly because Marquise 'Hollywood' Brown hasn’t been able to take the field yet, and Xavier Worthy is understandably taking time to adjust to life in the NFL. Unfortunately, things won’t get easier, with Isaiah Pacheco sidelined for the next two months with a fractured fibula.
A definite bright spot for KC has been Rashee Rice, who has expanded his route tree and looks as dangerous as ever. Until Worthy can be trusted more as a receiver, expect more short passes from the Chiefs. Pacheco’s injury should lead to more work for Rice and likely more targets for Travis Kelce, who has been quiet so far this season.
Despite all the injuries, the Chiefs are the better all-around team and should expect to walk away from this game with a win. The Gridiron AI models give them a whopping 76% chance of covering the -4 they’ve been given.
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