The GridironAI Betting Model has locked in its top value plays for Divisional Weekend of the NFL season. Using advanced analytics, player performance trends, and line-movement data, these are David's best bets for this week.
David does the research and uses our models so you don't have to. Sunday picks will come out on Sunday morning.
Divisional Saturday Picks
| Pick | Opponent | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills +1.5 | vs Denver Broncos | 6U |
| SF 49ers +7 | vs Seattle Seahawks | 3U |
| Pick | Line | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Bills/Broncos Under 45.5 | Game Total | 1U |
| 49ers/Seahawks Under 44.5 | Game Total | 1U |
Bills at Broncos. This line opened at Broncos -1.5, moved to pick-em midweek, and now is back at Broncos -1.5. The narrative on this game is the Denver defense against a Bills team with a depleted receiving corp. The Broncos have the #2 defense by yards allowed. They have the #2 rushing defense and league leading 68 sacks (11 more than the next closest team). But the Bills have the #1 rushing offense, led by James Cook and supported by the legs of Josh Allen. The Bills weakness on defense is stopping the rush. They rank 5th to last in rushing yards allowed per game. But Denver's rush game isn't anything special, as they are middle of the pack. Denver's stats are also buoyed by their extremely easy regular season schedule (almost as easy as the Patriots), having only beaten one of the remaining 8 playoff teams, and that was the Texans with Davis Mills as QB. We've seen the Broncos offense be completely inept several times this season; 13 points vs. the Jets, 10 points vs the Raiders. I just think the Bills and Josh Allen have so much more experience in the playoffs, and are going to be better prepared for this game. Josh Allen is the best player on the field, and I trust him a lot more than Bo Nix. 93% of the GridironAI spread models like the Bills to cover with 1.5 points. The team scoring model projects 43 total points, implying value on the under.
49ers at Seahawks. The teams met 2 weeks ago and the 49ers offense couldn't do anything against the #6 ranked Seattle defense. The line in that game was only 2.5. Now home field has flipped and the 49ers have lost George Kittle. 4.5 point line movement seems like a lot of points for just those 2 changes. The 49ers have struggled against top defense all year; scoring 3 and 17 points against the Seahawks, 15 against the Texans, and 26 against the Browns, but their TD drives were only 16, 18, and 32 yards because of the Browns inept offense and turnover mistakes. The offenses are statistically pretty even. Seattle certainly has advantage on defense. Both of these teams have issues with turnovers, and Purdy and Darnold can throw multiple interceptions in any given game. I think that will really be the deciding factor. Will I be surprised if the Seahawks roll the 49ers, absolutely not. But given all of the factors, I have to take the points with the 49ers. 86% of the GridironAI spread models like the 49ers to cover. The team scoring model projects 41 total points, implying value on the under.
GridironAI Edge
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All odds current as of publication. Make sure you shop around at different sports books to get the best odds and line to maximize your return. Always wager responsibly.