David's NFL Conference Betting Picks & Predictions (with Units)

The GridironAI Betting Model has locked in its top value plays for Conference Weekend of the NFL season. Using advanced analytics, player performance trends, and line-movement data, these are David's best bets for this week.

David does the research and uses our models so you don't have to.

Conference Picks

Patriots at Broncos. This game is very puzzling for handicappers because nobody knows how good or bad Broncos backup QB Jarrett Stidham will be. On one hand, here's a guy who has not attempted a pass in the NFL for the past 2 years, and only has only 4 career starts. On the other hand, he's a QB that was specifically targeted by Broncos Head Coach, Sean Payton, to be the backup, because he felt he could easily slide into his offensive system. Because of this unknown, the line has been moving all over the place this week. It opened at Patriots -4, and quickly received sharp action on the Patriots pushing the line as high as 6, there was then some buyback on the Broncos, and the line hovered around 4.5-5 most of the week, and has slowly seen more Broncos money come in, pushing the line down to 3.5. Bettors are banking on the Broncos defense being as effective as the Texans defense was against the Patriots, and an offense that won't turn the ball over 5 times. I don't believe the Broncos defense is anywhere near as good as the Texans, and that's why I'm going to be on the Patriots. Yes, the Broncos were #2 in yards allowed, #3 in points allowed, and #1 in sacks. But the Patriots aren't far behind, #8 in yards allowed, and #3 in points allowed. Both teams played very weak schedules, in fact the Patriots had the #1 easiest, and the Broncos had the #2 easiest. But Denver's defensive stats are really propelled by the fact that they played against some awful offenses; Raiders (dead last in offense) twice, Chargers in Week 18 with all backups players, Texans with Davis Mills at QB, Bengals with Jake Browning at QB, Chiefs with Chris Oladokun at QB. So their defensive stats are really inflated by these games. On the other side of the ball, there is a big difference on offense, where the Patriots offense ranks #3 in yards and points, while the Broncos rank 10th in yards and 14th and points, and that was with Bo Nix as QB. The best thing the Broncos have going for them is home field in the altitude. 67% of the GridironAI spread models liked the Patriots to cover at -5.5, and now we can get that at -3.5. Yes, please! The GridironAI team scoring model projects 43 total points (24-19 Patriots), which is right in line with the sportsbook total and supports our side of the Patriots.

Rams at the Seahawks. This game could be better than the Super Bowl. These teams have played twice this year, and both were tight games, with the Rams winning 21-19 at home, and the Seahawks winning 38-37 at home in overtime in a crazy game where they came back from a 16 point 4th quarter deficit, and won on a 2 point conversion in OT. The Rams have the #1 offense in yards and points, and the Seahawks are 8th in yards and 3rd in points. The Seahawks are down their #2 RB, Zach Charbonnet, who tore his ACL last week. That means Kenneth Walker will likely carry more of the load, or the Seahawks will use 3rd string RB, Velus Jones Jr., who has seen minimal action this season and throughout his career. This could result in some potential fatigue later in the game. The difference in this game should be the Seahawks defense. The Seahawks ranked 6th in yards allowed and #1 in points allowed, while the Rams are 17th and 10th, respectively. I give a slight edge on offense to the Rams, but I think the defensive edge with the Seahawks is more significant. I see this game being a shootout. I understand why the total is 46, since the first time they played the teams scored a total of 40 points. But Sam Darnold threw 4 interceptions that game. While backing Darnold always scares me, because he had the third most interceptions in the league, I'm banking on that not happening. Both these offenses are high powered, and can have massive chunk plays down the field, especially with each team having one of the top 2 WRs in the league, with Nacua and JSN. Some people are concerned about the amount of travel that Rams have had. This will be their 7th road game in the last 9 weeks, with many of those being cross country trips to Carolina (twice), and Atlanta. I don't think that really plays a factor in things, but if it does, I'm glad I'm on the Seahawks. 73% of the GridironAI spread models like the Seahawks to cover at -2.5. The GridironAI team scoring model projects 54 total points (33-21 Seahawks), which implies value on the Over 45.5, and supports our side of the Seahawks.

GridironAI Edge

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All odds current as of publication. Make sure you shop around at different sports books to get the best odds and line to maximize your return. Always wager responsibly.