NFL 2019 Week 2 Projections - Top 10 At Each Position

By Andy Troiano · September 11, 2019

This post will cover the week two rankings generated by our models.

Changes from Last Year

I am going to add minimal commentary to these posts. It takes a significant amount of time to add commentary. If you have questions, join our slack channel or email us.

The time it took to add commentary is going to be reinvested in new features/projections (like Pick’Em / Prob of Beating Projections) that will help you win.

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Quick Thoughts

We are not manually modifying the projections from our models. We are trusting in the data.

We have a Rank of the Risk for the player obtaining their upside /downside projection in the tables below which will help you understand the spread in the rankings. This will also allow you to get a feel for how the model views the ranges of performance for a given player. Other sites are going to give you the mean prediction, we are going to help you understand how confident the mean score is going to occur.

  • In general:
  • The downside risk for top players will be high because there projected scores are significantly higher than other players.
    • For example - Week 1, Mahomes had “Very High” for downside risk Because he is supposed to ball out with 23 points. The chance of his downside risk is probably low because he is so good, right now, I don’t have the probability of attaining each prediction. That is something we are going to work on later this season.
  • The upside risk for top players will also generally be lower because they generally score close to the most points that can be expected at their position.

About the Graphs and Tables

The graphs are self-explanatory, they are going to provide you with the projected points for the players in order for the top 10 at each position.

The tables contain:

  • Points - Average points for the player
  • Upside Points - Upside opportunity for a player
  • Downside Points - Downsiderisk for a player
  • Upside Point Opp - Rating for the point opportunity, given the player's position
  • Downside Point Opp - Rating for the point downside, given the player's position

QB

Top 10 QB

QB Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Patrick Mahomes </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 28.1 </td> <td> 49.7 </td> <td> 8.3 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tom Brady </td> <td> NE </td> <td> 24.0 </td> <td> 32.7 </td> <td> 6.0 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mitchell Trubisky </td> <td> CHI </td> <td> 23.6 </td> <td> 33.3 </td> <td> 4.9 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Ben Roethlisberger </td> <td> PIT </td> <td> 23.2 </td> <td> 32.2 </td> <td> 5.4 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Matthew Stafford </td> <td> DET </td> <td> 22.9 </td> <td> 32.3 </td> <td> 4.8 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Lamar Jackson </td> <td> BAL </td> <td> 22.4 </td> <td> 8.5 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> Low </td> <td> Very High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Deshaun Watson </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 21.9 </td> <td> 31.4 </td> <td> 3.5 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Andy Dalton </td> <td> CIN </td> <td> 21.8 </td> <td> 37.6 </td> <td> 8.6 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Sam Darnold </td> <td> NYJ </td> <td> 21.0 </td> <td> 30.6 </td> <td> 3.4 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Matt Ryan </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 20.3 </td> <td> 28.8 </td> <td> 3.3 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

RB

Top 10 RB

RB PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Le’Veon Bell </td> <td> NYJ </td> <td> 23.6 </td> <td> 39.1 </td> <td> 8.7 </td> <td> Low </td> <td> Very High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Christian McCaffrey </td> <td> CAR </td> <td> 20.4 </td> <td> 35.0 </td> <td> 6.7 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> David Johnson </td> <td> ARI </td> <td> 20.3 </td> <td> 34.7 </td> <td> 6.9 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Alvin Kamara </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 19.8 </td> <td> 34.6 </td> <td> 5.9 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Damien Williams </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 18.4 </td> <td> 31.2 </td> <td> 6.5 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Todd Gurley </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 18.3 </td> <td> 30.6 </td> <td> 7.2 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Joe Mixon </td> <td> CIN </td> <td> 17.7 </td> <td> 29.7 </td> <td> 6.7 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tarik Cohen </td> <td> CHI </td> <td> 16.7 </td> <td> 29.1 </td> <td> 6.2 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Saquon Barkley </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 16.7 </td> <td> 28.7 </td> <td> 5.7 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> James Conner </td> <td> PIT </td> <td> 15.8 </td> <td> 27.5 </td> <td> 5.1 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
RB STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Le’Veon Bell </td> <td> NYJ </td> <td> 18.9 </td> <td> 31.7 </td> <td> 6.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> David Johnson </td> <td> ARI </td> <td> 16.7 </td> <td> 28.6 </td> <td> 5.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Todd Gurley </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 15.9 </td> <td> 26.4 </td> <td> 6.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Alvin Kamara </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 15.4 </td> <td> 27.6 </td> <td> 4.1 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Christian McCaffrey </td> <td> CAR </td> <td> 15.4 </td> <td> 27.2 </td> <td> 4.3 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Joe Mixon </td> <td> CIN </td> <td> 14.9 </td> <td> 25.0 </td> <td> 5.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Saquon Barkley </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 13.7 </td> <td> 23.6 </td> <td> 4.7 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Peyton Barber </td> <td> TAM </td> <td> 13.3 </td> <td> 23.6 </td> <td> 4.2 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Ezekiel Elliott </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 13.3 </td> <td> 22.7 </td> <td> 5.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Marlon Mack </td> <td> IND </td> <td> 13.0 </td> <td> 21.9 </td> <td> 5.5 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

WR

Top 10 WR

WR PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Odell Beckham Jr. </td> <td> CLE </td> <td> 27.7 </td> <td> 41.4 </td> <td> 14.7 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Antonio Brown </td> <td> OAK </td> <td> 24.5 </td> <td> 28.2 </td> <td> 8.6 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Antonio Brown </td> <td> OAK </td> <td> 24.5 </td> <td> 28.2 </td> <td> 8.6 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Antonio Brown </td> <td> OAK </td> <td> 24.5 </td> <td> 28.2 </td> <td> 8.6 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Antonio Brown </td> <td> OAK </td> <td> 24.5 </td> <td> 28.2 </td> <td> 8.6 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> JuJu Smith-Schuster </td> <td> PIT </td> <td> 23.7 </td> <td> 35.9 </td> <td> 12.4 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Sammy Watkins </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 22.7 </td> <td> 34.2 </td> <td> 11.8 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Julian Edelman </td> <td> NE </td> <td> 22.1 </td> <td> 33.9 </td> <td> 10.9 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jarvis Landry </td> <td> CLE </td> <td> 21.8 </td> <td> 39.2 </td> <td> 11.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> John Ross </td> <td> CIN </td> <td> 21.2 </td> <td> 34.1 </td> <td> 10.0 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> DeAndre Hopkins </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 20.8 </td> <td> 31.8 </td> <td> 10.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Davante Adams </td> <td> GB </td> <td> 20.4 </td> <td> 18.3 </td> <td> 3.7 </td> <td> Low </td> <td> Very High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tyler Boyd </td> <td> CIN </td> <td> 20.1 </td> <td> 31.7 </td> <td> 9.3 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
WR STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Odell Beckham Jr. </td> <td> CLE </td> <td> 18.4 </td> <td> 28.5 </td> <td> 8.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Antonio Brown </td> <td> OAK </td> <td> 16.1 </td> <td> 19.5 </td> <td> 4.9 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Antonio Brown </td> <td> OAK </td> <td> 16.1 </td> <td> 19.5 </td> <td> 4.9 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Antonio Brown </td> <td> OAK </td> <td> 16.1 </td> <td> 19.5 </td> <td> 4.9 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Antonio Brown </td> <td> OAK </td> <td> 16.1 </td> <td> 19.5 </td> <td> 4.9 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> JuJu Smith-Schuster </td> <td> PIT </td> <td> 15.6 </td> <td> 24.7 </td> <td> 7.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Sammy Watkins </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 14.9 </td> <td> 23.5 </td> <td> 6.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Julian Edelman </td> <td> NE </td> <td> 14.6 </td> <td> 23.5 </td> <td> 6.4 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> John Ross </td> <td> CIN </td> <td> 13.7 </td> <td> 23.5 </td> <td> 5.6 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> DeAndre Hopkins </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 13.7 </td> <td> 21.9 </td> <td> 6.0 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jarvis Landry </td> <td> CLE </td> <td> 13.6 </td> <td> 27.8 </td> <td> 7.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Davante Adams </td> <td> GB </td> <td> 13.4 </td> <td> 12.6 </td> <td> 1.9 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

TE

Top 10 TE

TE PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Travis Kelce </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 22.7 </td> <td> 33.8 </td> <td> 11.6 </td> <td> Low </td> <td> Very High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Evan Engram </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 16.1 </td> <td> 25.3 </td> <td> 7.1 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> C.J. Uzomah </td> <td> CIN </td> <td> 15.4 </td> <td> 24.7 </td> <td> 6.5 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> David Njoku </td> <td> CLE </td> <td> 14.6 </td> <td> 23.6 </td> <td> 6.1 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tyler Eifert </td> <td> CIN </td> <td> 13.5 </td> <td> 22.6 </td> <td> 5.2 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Zach Ertz </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 11.8 </td> <td> 19.7 </td> <td> 4.5 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Blake Jarwin </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 11.7 </td> <td> 20.6 </td> <td> 3.8 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Matt LaCosse </td> <td> NE </td> <td> 11.5 </td> <td> 19.5 </td> <td> 4.2 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Austin Hooper </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 11.5 </td> <td> 19.4 </td> <td> 4.4 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> T.J. Hockenson </td> <td> DET </td> <td> 11.0 </td> <td> 19.1 </td> <td> 4.0 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
TE STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Travis Kelce </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 14.9 </td> <td> 23.1 </td> <td> 6.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Evan Engram </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 10.2 </td> <td> 16.7 </td> <td> 3.8 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> C.J. Uzomah </td> <td> CIN </td> <td> 10.0 </td> <td> 16.9 </td> <td> 3.6 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> David Njoku </td> <td> CLE </td> <td> 9.5 </td> <td> 16.0 </td> <td> 3.3 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tyler Eifert </td> <td> CIN </td> <td> 8.8 </td> <td> 15.5 </td> <td> 2.8 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Zach Ertz </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 7.6 </td> <td> 13.4 </td> <td> 2.5 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Blake Jarwin </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 7.5 </td> <td> 14.1 </td> <td> 2.0 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Austin Hooper </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 7.4 </td> <td> 13.1 </td> <td> 2.4 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Matt LaCosse </td> <td> NE </td> <td> 7.3 </td> <td> 13.2 </td> <td> 2.2 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> T.J. Hockenson </td> <td> DET </td> <td> 7.0 </td> <td> 13.1 </td> <td> 2.0 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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