Boom or bust: week 5 fantasy floors, ceilings and touchdown odds
Gridiron AI plays out every NFL game thousands of times, snap by snap, and credits each pass and run to a player. Week 5 of the 2026 season: 15 games, 2,500 simulations each. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile of a player's simulated fantasy points (full PPR, 6-point passing touchdowns); the table lists the top 3 at each position by median.
| Rank | Player | Game | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Boom | Bust | Touchdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB1 | Dak Prescott | DAL vs TB | 11.4 | 23.1 | 36.0 | 42% (25+ points) | 20% (under 15) | — |
| QB2 | Josh Allen | BUF at LA | 10.5 | 20.6 | 31.3 | 29% (25+ points) | 25% (under 15) | — |
| QB3 | Jared Goff | DET at ARI | 10.0 | 19.1 | 28.8 | 21% (25+ points) | 28% (under 15) | — |
| RB1 | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET at ARI | 12.7 | 24.8 | 39.5 | 69% (20+ points) | 4% (under 10) | 76% |
| RB2 | Bijan Robinson | ATL vs BAL | 9.5 | 20.4 | 35.1 | 52% (20+ points) | 11% (under 10) | 64% |
| RB3 | Jaylen Warren | PIT vs IND | 8.5 | 18.5 | 32.1 | 45% (20+ points) | 15% (under 10) | 57% |
| WR1 | Puka Nacua | LA vs BUF | 8.6 | 19.8 | 35.4 | 50% (20+ points) | 13% (under 10) | 50% |
| WR2 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL vs TB | 6.3 | 16.3 | 30.8 | 36% (20+ points) | 23% (under 10) | 46% |
| WR3 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA vs SF | 6.4 | 16.1 | 30.8 | 35% (20+ points) | 23% (under 10) | 42% |
| TE1 | Trey McBride | ARI vs DET | 6.1 | 15.1 | 28.2 | 51% (15+ points) | 26% (under 10) | 42% |
| TE2 | Brock Bowers | LV at NE | 5.9 | 15.0 | 28.3 | 50% (15+ points) | 28% (under 10) | 41% |
| TE3 | George Kittle | SF at SEA | 4.0 | 11.7 | 24.7 | 35% (15+ points) | 40% (under 10) | 35% |
Highest ceilings
Points in a top-10% game: Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, DET at ARI) 39.5 points; Puka Nacua (WR, LA vs BUF) 35.4 points; Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL vs BAL) 35.1 points; Jaylen Warren (RB, PIT vs IND) 32.1 points; Kyren Williams (RB, LA vs BUF) 31.2 points.
Safest floors
Points in a bottom-10% game: Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, DET at ARI) 12.7 points; Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL vs BAL) 9.5 points; Puka Nacua (WR, LA vs BUF) 8.6 points; Jaylen Warren (RB, PIT vs IND) 8.5 points; D'Andre Swift (RB, CHI at GB) 7.8 points.
Most likely to score
Chance of a rushing or receiving touchdown: Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, DET at ARI) 76%; Javonte Williams (RB, DAL vs TB) 65%; Kyren Williams (RB, LA vs BUF) 64%; Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL vs BAL) 64%; D'Andre Swift (RB, CHI at GB) 61%.
Boom or bust
Chance of 20+ points / chance of under 10: James Cook (RB, BUF at LA) 28% boom, 28% bust; Drake London (WR, ATL vs BAL) 28% boom, 32% bust; Brock Bowers (TE, LV at NE) 31% boom, 28% bust; Derrick Henry (RB, BAL at ATL) 27% boom, 29% bust; Trey McBride (TE, ARI vs DET) 29% boom, 26% bust.
How the simulations work
Every game, played thousands of times. Each game that has not kicked off is played out snap by snap, thousands of times. Every play call, completion, run and score is drawn from models fitted to NFL play-by-play, and each game is anchored to the scoring the betting market expects from the two teams.
Each touch goes to a player. Every simulated pass has a target and every run has a ball carrier, chosen from how each team has used its players in the open field, in the red zone, at the goal line and when trailing or protecting a lead. Injury reports decide who is available, and a player who is in doubt sits out a share of the simulations.
A range, not one number. The floor is the score a player beats in nine of ten simulations and the ceiling is the score beaten in only one of ten. The median is the middle game. Boom and bust are the share of simulations above and below a fixed score for the position, and the touchdown chance counts rushing and receiving scores.
How it has held up. In testing on the 2025 season and the first weeks of 2026, about four in five fantasy-relevant players finished between their simulated floor and ceiling, which is what a 10th-to-90th percentile range should do. The simulator is a separate model from our rankings projection, so the two can disagree about a player.