NFL Power Ratings (2021, final)
Gridiron AI power ratings for all 32 NFL teams, final of the 2021 season. Each number is points per game against an average team on a neutral field, built from scores and opponent-adjusted play-by-play efficiency. The betting market column is the rating implied by point spreads and totals; the last column shows where our rating differs from it. These describe team strength and are not betting picks.
| Rank | Team | Overall | Offense | Defense | Special teams | Betting market | Vs market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Bills | +8.9 | +5.3 | +3.3 | +0.3 | +5.1 | +3.8 |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +7.0 | +5.5 | +1.7 | -0.3 | +5.3 | +1.7 |
| 3 | Kansas City Chiefs | +6.8 | +6.3 | +0.4 | +0.1 | +6.3 | +0.4 |
| 4 | Los Angeles Rams | +5.8 | +2.6 | +3.4 | -0.2 | +4.4 | +1.5 |
| 5 | Dallas Cowboys | +5.7 | +4.6 | +0.9 | +0.2 | +4.2 | +1.5 |
| 6 | Green Bay Packers | +4.8 | +4.0 | +1.2 | -0.3 | +5.4 | -0.6 |
| 7 | New England Patriots | +4.0 | +2.0 | +1.8 | +0.2 | +3.6 | +0.4 |
| 8 | San Francisco 49ers | +3.8 | +1.0 | +3.2 | -0.4 | +2.9 | +0.9 |
| 9 | Indianapolis Colts | +3.7 | +2.1 | +1.1 | +0.6 | +2.7 | +1.0 |
| 10 | Tennessee Titans | +3.1 | +1.4 | +1.5 | +0.2 | +1.0 | +2.1 |
| 11 | Seattle Seahawks | +2.7 | +1.5 | +0.7 | +0.5 | +2.1 | +0.6 |
| 12 | New Orleans Saints | +2.6 | -1.1 | +3.5 | +0.2 | +2.1 | +0.5 |
| 13 | Cincinnati Bengals | +1.8 | +1.1 | +0.6 | +0.1 | -0.7 | +2.5 |
| 14 | Arizona Cardinals | +1.3 | +1.1 | +0.2 | 0.0 | +3.1 | -1.8 |
| 15 | Baltimore Ravens | +0.4 | -0.1 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +1.5 | -1.1 |
| 16 | Philadelphia Eagles | +0.1 | +0.7 | -0.5 | -0.2 | 0.0 | +0.1 |
| 17 | Los Angeles Chargers | +0.1 | +3.5 | -3.0 | -0.4 | +2.8 | -2.8 |
| 18 | Minnesota Vikings | -0.1 | +1.6 | -1.4 | -0.3 | -0.7 | +0.6 |
| 19 | Miami Dolphins | -0.1 | -1.5 | +1.4 | -0.1 | -0.3 | +0.1 |
| 20 | Cleveland Browns | -0.7 | -1.4 | +0.8 | -0.1 | +0.9 | -1.6 |
| 21 | Denver Broncos | -2.1 | -3.3 | +1.5 | -0.3 | -2.4 | +0.2 |
| 22 | Pittsburgh Steelers | -2.1 | -2.2 | +0.2 | -0.2 | -1.0 | -1.2 |
| 23 | Las Vegas Raiders | -2.5 | -0.2 | -2.4 | +0.1 | -2.3 | -0.2 |
| 24 | Chicago Bears | -3.1 | -3.1 | -0.1 | +0.1 | -2.8 | -0.3 |
| 25 | Washington Commanders | -3.6 | -2.9 | -0.7 | 0.0 | -3.1 | -0.4 |
| 26 | Atlanta Falcons | -4.9 | -2.2 | -2.6 | -0.1 | -3.1 | -1.8 |
| 27 | Carolina Panthers | -5.4 | -4.2 | -1.1 | -0.2 | -3.7 | -1.7 |
| 28 | Detroit Lions | -6.0 | -2.0 | -4.3 | +0.3 | -5.4 | -0.6 |
| 29 | Houston Texans | -6.2 | -3.5 | -2.9 | +0.2 | -6.7 | +0.5 |
| 30 | New York Giants | -7.4 | -6.8 | -0.4 | -0.2 | -6.2 | -1.2 |
| 31 | New York Jets | -8.3 | -3.8 | -4.6 | +0.1 | -6.8 | -1.5 |
| 32 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -10.0 | -6.0 | -3.7 | -0.3 | -8.3 | -1.6 |
How we build the ratings
Start with every play. We use play-by-play data for every NFL game and measure each play by expected points added (EPA): how much it changed the points a team should expect to score. Passing and rushing are rated separately, kneel-downs and spikes are dropped, and garbage time (when one team is more than 90% likely to win) counts a quarter as much.
Adjust for the opponent. Every offense and every defense is solved for at the same time, so a good day against a strong defense counts for more than the same day against a weak one.
Weight recent games, and stay cautious early. Recent games count more. Passing quality is stable, so it fades slowly; rushing fades faster. Last season carries over at reduced weight, and every rating is pulled toward the league average when there is little data, which is why early-season ratings look like a toned-down version of last year.
Convert to points and blend with scores. Per-play efficiency is converted to points per game using how efficiency has translated into scoring margins since 2011. That makes up 25% of the rating. The other 75% is a points-based rating that updates from the final score of every game. We chose that mix because it predicted past games best.
Compare with the betting market. The Market column is solved the same way from point spreads and totals: it is the rating the betting market has been giving each team. Vs Mkt shows where our number is higher or lower.
How accurate it is. On 2021-2025 games the ratings had not seen, the predicted margin missed the final margin by 10.2 points a game on average. The closing betting line missed by 9.8. The ratings are a good description of how strong each team is. They do not beat the market, and they are not betting picks.