David's NFL Week 7 - Beat the Line Movement
Week 7 Pick - Lock in Now
| Pick | Opponent | Units |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots -6.5 (-110) | vs Tennessee Titans | 1U |
| New England Patriots Moneyline (-300) | vs Tennessee Titans | 2U |
Lock in these picks now on FanDuel if you have an account there. The line on every other book is Patriots -7, with a Moneyline between -325 and -350. The GridironAI models like the Patriots to both win and over, and the mathematics at these odds make it even more favorable. Given the outlier line at FanDuel, I'm locking in these bets now before FanDuel moves their line to converge with the rest of the market. I know laying -300 is steep, but the mathematics support the play.
My optimism in the Titans last week was dashed by their poor performance (once again) against the lowly Raiders. The Titans rank dead last in total offense, by a wide margin. Meanwhile, the Patriots have been rolling lately. Drake Maye is playing really well. Aside from their 5 turnover performance vs. the Steelers, they have only turned the ball over 2 times in their other 5 games. The Titans have been sacked 25 times this year, vs. 18 for the Patriots. The Titans have only sacked the opponent QB 9 times, vs. 13 for the Patriots. The Patriots should kick the crap out of the Titans, but we are splitting the bets because the math supports it, and there's always the garbage time backdoor cover.
GridironAI Edge
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All odds current as of publication. Make sure you shop around at different sports books to get the best odds and line to maximize your return. Always wager responsibly.