Quarterback (QB)
Josh Allen - $7,900 - vs. Raiders
Josh Allen had one of the most challenging fantasy performances of his career last week against a formidable Jets defense. Just how challenging, you ask? While it wasn't his worst, it certainly ranks among his top 10 subpar outings. This assessment is based on calculating a standardized anomaly, known as a z-score, derived from an eight-game rolling average and standard deviation throughout his career. A z-score provides insight into how unusual a performance is compared to recent history. Therefore, Josh Allen's z-score of -1 last week may imply significantly fewer fantasy points than a similar z-score early in his rookie year.
But why is this relevant? I delved into Josh Allen's performance in the weeks following games in which he posted a z-score of -1 or lower. On average, he tallies about 24.5 DraftKings (DK) points per game after a subpar performance, and in his last five occurrences, he has averaged an impressive 27.3 DK points per game. Add to that the fact that his team is an 8-point favorite with a 27-point implied team total, and I'm confident in recommending him for all formats, especially cash games, this week. Don't second-guess it.
Running Back (RB)
Joshua Kelley - $5,000 - @ Titans
With Austin Ekeler sidelined this week, Joshua Kelley steps into the limelight. Kelley demonstrated his ability to capitalize on opportunities last week and is poised for a significant workload against the Titans. The New Orleans Saints struggled to move the ball on the ground against this defense last week, but I believe the Chargers' run-blocking capabilities will provide Kelley with a better chance for success. Priced at $5,000 on DraftKings, he doesn't need a monumental performance to justify his salary. However, do keep in mind that he is expected to be highly owned this week, so for GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) tournaments, consider fading him to gain leverage, as ownership may approach 30 percent.
David Montgomery - $5,800 - @ Seahawks
David Montgomery had a promising start against the Chiefs last week. He out-touched Jahmyr Gibbs 21 to 9 and handled red zone opportunities. While it's possible that Gibbs may take over as the primary back later in the season, I don't see that happening this week. The Lions are favored by 4.5 to 5 points against a Seahawks team that surrendered multiple touchdowns on the ground last week. I love Montgomery at $5,800.
Wide Receiver (WR)
Stefon Diggs - $8,000 - vs. Raiders
While I don't always recommend stacking in cash game lineups, there are times when it makes perfect sense. We've already discussed the Bills' impressive 27-point implied total, and if Josh Allen has a stellar game, it's likely that Stefon Diggs will contribute significantly as well. He dominated Sauce Gardner and the formidable Jets defense last week, turning 13 targets into a remarkable 10-102-1 stat line. I believe he could be in for an even more substantial performance at home against a middling Raiders secondary.
Tee Higgins - $6,400 - vs. Baltimore
Similar to Josh Allen, Tee Higgins has shown a tendency to rebound after subpar weeks early in his young career. Following a z-score of -0.75 or less, he averages 20.12 DK points in the subsequent week. I like him (and Joe Burrow, if you want to pivot from Allen) in a bounce-back scenario against the Ravens this week. The Bengals are 3-point favorites at home with a respectable 24-25 point implied team total. I'm comfortable recommending him for both cash games and tournaments.
Zay Flowers - $5,000 - @ Cincinatti
Zay Flowers could very well be the WR1 in Baltimore. In the absence of JK Dobbins, it's uncertain whether Gus Edwards and Justice Hill can provide the ground-and-pound game that Coach John Harbaugh desires. I expect Lamar Jackson will need to pass the ball more this week to secure a victory. I'm particularly fond of the Higgins/Flowers stack within their price range this week.
Tight End (TE)
Dalton Kincaid - $3,300 - vs. Raiders
While I typically advise against double stacking in cash games, Kincaid's modest price tag of $3,300, coupled with his ample targets in a challenging offensive game against the Jets last week, gives me confidence that he will produce enough points at his salary to remain competitive in cash games tomorrow.
Flex
Deebo Samuel - $5,600 - @ LA
There's not much more to say about Deebo Samuel other than the fact that he has the potential to score 30 points in any given week, making his $5,600 price tag a potential bargain. He receives handoffs and targets, and he has a quarterback who will connect with him on slants and screens, allowing him to excel in yards after the catch. I'm slotting Deebo into the flex position at $5,600 (with an honorable mention to Mike Williams at $5,700, who is also a solid choice).
Defense (DET) - $3,000 - vs. Seattle
While history suggests that these teams have engaged in high-scoring affairs in their recent meetings (with over 80 total points in the last three encounters), Detroit's defense has demonstrated improvement lately holding the Chiefs to just 20 points in week 1. Even without Travis Kelce in the lineup and Kadarius Toney dropping balls left and right, that’s quite a feat. Additionally, the Seahawks' offense struggled against the Rams in Week 1 and look like they could be in for a slow yearl. I recommend stacking Detroit with David Montgomery at the low price of $3,000.