Showdown Advice: Baltimore vs Kansas City

Total Line: 47
Spread: -3
KC Implied Points: 25
BAL Implied Points: 22

Intro

After a lengthy seven-month hiatus, NFL DFS is back this Thursday night with an exhilarating Week 1 opener featuring a clash between the reigning champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, and the AFC runner-up Baltimore Ravens. This matchup promises to be highly competitive, showcasing two teams that excel on both sides of the ball. With some incredible salary value on several players this slate, it's time to dive into the options and strategize for your DraftKings DFS contests.

Let's start with a quick overview of a couple of optimal lineups for cash games. I typically compete in large-field $25 double-ups (single entry), but these lineups should be competitive in most cash games.

Projected Optimal Lineup

CPT: P. Mahomes ($15,600)
FLEX: L. Jackson ($11,400)
FLEX: R. Rice ($7,600)
FLEX: X. Worthy ($5,800)
FLEX: M. Andrews ($6,400)
FLEX: I. Likely ($2,600)

I expect the lineup above to be highly duplicated in cash games on Thursday night, and for good reason. It’s rare to fit so many core players into a Showdown lineup. While rookie Xavier Worthy is somewhat of a question mark and Isaiah Likely is a bit of a punt, Worthy is a first-round draft pick and Likely is one of the better tight end handcuffs in fantasy football. If the game turns out to be a pass-heavy affair that hits the over, this lineup could have a strong chance to finish in the money with Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson leading the way.

Keep in mind that this lineup is designed for a high-scoring, pass-heavy game. In Showdown contests, your lineup should reflect your prediction of the game’s flow. Since this lineup is rich in passers and pass catchers, it might struggle if the game ends up being low-scoring or if the run game overshadows the pass game.

High ROI Lineups

If you read my recent blog post, you know I’m incorporating a new strategy this year using a custom-built contest simulator to generate high ROI DFS lineups for both cash games and GPPs. We’re excited about the potential of this tool and hope to make it available to our users as our site grows with your support.

Now, let’s take a look at a few high ROI lineups from our contest simulator. Our projected optimal lineup above had the 3rd highest ROI in 5,000 contest simulations (10,000-person field paying out the top 45% in a $25 double-up). This indicates consistency between our play-by-play simulations and overall projections. It also offers insight into alternative lineups if you prefer not to go with a pass-heavy approach and would rather get exposure to other top players like Pacheco, Kelce, or Henry.

Highest ROI Lineup

CPT: P. Mahomes ($15,600)
FLEX: L. Jackson ($11,400)
FLEX: R. Rice ($7,600)
FLEX: M. Andrews ($6,400)
FLEX: I. Pacheco ($8,400)
FLEX: C. Steele ($200)

Average ROI: 57%
Average Points Scored: 98.9

Not ready to pull the trigger on rookie Xavier Worthy? You can substitute him and Isaiah Likely for Isaiah Pacheco and a $200 punt option. In this case, it was Carson Steele, and in our 2nd highest ROI lineup, it was Rasheen Ali. I expect this lineup to be highly duplicated tomorrow night, but it remains a solid option. I’ve shared a spreadsheet in our Discord DFS channel with the other top 20 ROI lineups for cash games tomorrow night. You’ll notice Patrick Mahomes is highly recommended in the CPT spot. Explore the other lineups and see if they fit your prediction for tonight’s game.