Using Machine Learning and Wisdom of The Crowd to Benefit from Chaos
Introduction:
This information is based on data from Friday Sep 18th
The information contained in the spreadsheet below uses the following sources of data. Please check them out
- Establish the Run Draftkings Point Protections and Ownership Predictions
- Gridiron AI Floor and Ceiling Projections for Draftkings
- FFAnalytics Floor and Ceiling Projections
Establish the Run has some of the best projections in terms of consistently beating the “field” From what I gather, they use a combination of machine learning, film analysis, and expert “gut” to arrive at numbers that have beaten the DFS market consistently. I was able to aggregate these floor and ceiling projections with Gridiron AI’s machine learning projections, which leverages millions of data points from the last 10-15 years of NFL data. For the final piece, I also averaged in the projections gathered by FFanalytics. the sources are here:
My theory is that inaccuracies that exist in the FFanalytics aggregation of expert consensus will be canceled out by a sharp group of experts at ETR and a noise-reducing machine learning model from Gridiron AI. It seems that I was correct after week 1 as my use of the model netted a 31% ROI in Week 1 DFS cash and small-field GPP tournaments. Hopefully we can replicate or even do better this week! The spreadsheet can be found below, but read on if you want to know how I’m using the data.
Quarterback Landscape:
Ownership is pretty flat at QB this week similar to last week. Josh Allen will carry the most ownership because of his projected ceiling. He is incredibly cheap relative to his ceiling though so eating chalk with him won’t be too bad since his value is so high. Remember, value is a score given by the staff at ETR that rewards players that are projected to score more than the typical player at that same price point. I’m comfortable looking at stacks for these three players.
Brady, Prescott, Herbert, and Hurts all have 30+ upside this week which automatically makes them a priority in tournaments regardless of price or ownership. I will likely build stacks with them and their respective skill players, but will be sure to balance out any ownership chalk with lower owned players. The field really loves all of the players in the Chargers-Cowboys Game, this is the type of thing that won’t be fun to fade, but will pay off big if the field is wrong.
About 50% of the field wants to pay up for QB, but not too far. This makes Murray, Wilson, and Hurts my favorite QB plays on the week, because they have modest ownership and relatively high ceilings, floors, and value.
Quarterback Pool
Cash
Dak Prescott vs. LAC
Jalen Hurts vs. SF
Justin Herbert vs. DAL
Single Entry/3-Entry
Russell Wilson vs. TEN
Kyler Murray vs. MIN
Jalen Hurts vs. SF
20-Entry Max
Josh Allen vs. MIA
Kyler Murray vs. MIN
Tom Brady vs. ATL
Russell Wilson vs. TEN
Jalen Hurts vs. SF
Dak Prescott vs. LAC
Justin Herbert vs. DA
Ben Roethlisberger vs. LV
Teddy Bridgewater vs. JAX
Derek Carr vs. PIT
RB Landscape:
Wow. Paying up at running back this week looks to be pretty contrarian. The field is in love with one of Najee, Zeke, Carson, and Montgomery. They all have solid value and price, but apart from Najee they lack a truly elite ceiling. I’m fading the chalk here outside of Najee Harris because I am a Steelers fan and this is supposed to be fun.
Damien Harris is also projected to be popular as he appears to be mispriced.
I will likely pay more than $6300 on at least one running back a lot in this slate. This is such a great week to play Christian Mccaffery.
RB Player Pool
Cash
Najee Harris
Alvin Kamara
Chris Carson
Ezekial Elliot
Single Entry/3-Entry
Alvin Kamara
Christian McCaffrey
Dalvin Cook
Joe Mixon
Austin Ekeler
Nick Chubb
Najee Harris
Jonathan Taylor
Darrell Henderson
Chris Carson
Myles Gaskin
Leonard Fournette
20-Entry Max
Alvin Kamara
Christian McCaffrey
Dalvin Cook
Joe Mixon
Austin Ekeler
Nick Chubb
Najee Harris
Jonathan Taylor
Darrell Henderson
Chris Carson
Myles Gaskin
Leonard Fournette
Derrick Henry
Ezekiel Elliott
Mike Davis
David Montgomery
Melvin Gordon
Damien Harris
Miles Sanders
Devin Singletary
Chase Edmonds
WR Landscape:
Similar pattern to RBs. Ownership is concentrated where the value is at around 6-7K. The high owned players that fall outside of that are the Bills and Bengals receivers. They are all seeing boosted ownership compared to the other players at their price. LA WRs (and tight ends) are also very expensive. That makes me like Henderson +Stafford more in tournaments as a pivot.
The players I will be targeting are at more extreme price points at receiver this week, whereas last week I paid up for receivers in many spots.
WR Player Pool
Cash
CeeDee Lamb
Cooper Kupp
Amari Cooper
Keenan Allen
Robert Woods
Chris Godwin
Tyler Lockett
Diontae Johnson
Ja'Marr Chase
Allen Robinson
Cole Beasley
Marvin Jones
Single Entry/3-Entry
Stefon Diggs
Amari Cooper
Chris Godwin
Calvin Ridley
Ja'Marr Chase
DeAndre Hopkins
Keenan Allen
Deebo Samuel
Justin Jefferson
Diontae Johnson
Jarvis Landry
CeeDee Lamb
AJ Brown
DK Metcalf
Robert Woods
Adam Thielen
Tyler Lockett
Cooper Kupp
DJ Moore
Allen Robinson
Mike Evans
JuJu SmithSchuster
Brandin Cooks
Corey Davis
Antonio Brown
Cole Beasley
Mike Williams
Julio Jones
Jakobi Meyers
DeVonta Smith
Tee Higgins
Laviska Shenault
Marvin Jones
DeVante Parker
20-Entry Max
Stefon Diggs
Amari Cooper
Chris Godwin
Calvin Ridley
Ja'Marr Chase
DeAndre Hopkins
Keenan Allen
Deebo Samuel
Justin Jefferson
Diontae Johnson
Jarvis Landry
CeeDee Lamb
AJ Brown
DK Metcalf
Robert Woods
Adam Thielen
Tyler Lockett
Cooper Kupp
DJ Moore
Allen Robinson
Mike Evans
JuJu SmithSchuster
Brandin Cooks
Corey Davis
Antonio Brown
Cole Beasley
Mike Williams
Julio Jones
Jakobi Meyers
DeVonta Smith
Tee Higgins
Laviska Shenault
Marvin Jones
DeVante Parker
Chase Claypool
Robby Anderson
Courtland Sutton
Jaylen Waddle
Brandon Aiyuk
Tyler Boyd
Emmanuel Sanders
Nelson Agholor
DJ Chark
Darnell Mooney
Marquez Callaway
Tim Patrick
Christian Kirk
Russell Gage
Van Jefferson
Michael Pittman
KJ Osborn
Good Darts - high ceiling and floor with very little ownership. I will periodically redact people that show up here and don't perform.
Terrace Marshall
Jalen Reagor
Deonte Harris
Zach Pascal
AJ Green
Donovan PeoplesJones
Jamison Crowder
Chester Rogers
Henry Ruggs
Parris Campbell
Trent Sherfield
Jalen Guyton
TE Landscape:
Waller and Kittle Seem really obvious here, but it will be tough to get them in. I’ll certainly build some teams that prioritize them.
TE Player Pool
Cash
Cook
Fant
Higbee
Single Entry/3-Entry
Darren Waller
George Kittle
Jonnu Smith
20-Entry Max
Darren Waller
George Kittle
Jonnu Smith
Dallas Goeddert
Cole Kmet
Rob Gronkowski
Kyle Pitts
DST Landscape
Cash
Steelers
Saints
Jets
All Tournament Structures
Buccaneers
Cardinals
Panthers
Eagles
Seahwaks
Bills
Titans
Jags D
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