Run the Sims: Week 16 DraftKings Player Pool

The Answers to the Test

Welcome to the Week 16 Player Pool! I'll be using the following data sources to create a pool of players to use in both cash games and tournaments on Draftkings. If you play on Yahoo or Fanduel and want advice feel free to hit me up on the Gridiron AI Slack Channel.

To create the player pool, I run this super fancy (not really) program I wrote to aggregate projections from the following sources:

• Establish the Run Projections and Ownership Predictions
• Gridiron AI Projections
• FantasyLabs Projections
• FFAnalytics Expert Consensus Projections
• Rotoviz Game Level Similarity Projections

If any of this information is helpful to you, feel free to Buy Me a Coffee for my troubles.

You can find the projections here under the "Sims" tab.

The "DFS Cash Pool" was created using FantasyLabs optimizer tool to generate 150 lineups by median projection while limiting the max player exposure to 30% so I would have a more diverse portfolio of players in my lineups. The tab includes the aggregated median, floor, and ceiling projections. It also includes Ownership% and Exposure percentage. Ownership% is Establish the runs current prediction for how popular that player will be in the Million Dollar Maker Tournament. For cash, we can ignore this, for tournaments this becomes very important. (More on that later.) So for cash games, I tend to gravitate toward more popular plays as the "Wisdom of the Crowd" is usually a decent indicator of the "best plays".

The "DFS Tournament Pool" was generated in a similar way. Using the FantasyLabs optimizer tool I generated 150 lineups, this time by Ceiling Projection as you need your players to hit the higher end of their range of outcomes in order to win a tournament. Again, I limited player exposure to a 30% maximum to force the optimizer to be diverse. I also added a few rules to the optimizer in order create correlated lineups that were more contrarian than the cash game lineups. Those rules are:

• Stack QB with at least 1 WR or TE from the same team
• Stack WR with at least 1 WR or TE from the opposing team
• Include at least 3 players under 15% ownership
• Include at most 2 players over 25% ownership

Note: these cutoffs are somewhat arbitrary, but are rooted in studies done on the most successful builds in top 1% tournament lineups.

I added a column to this pool called "Leverage". This column is simply the exposure of the player in the 150 lineups - the ownership percentage. This number can tell us how much leverage we gain on the field if this player outperforms the more popular plays at the position.

When choosing players from the pool I would prioritize ceiling first and foremost. Next, I would make sure that I am including only 1-2 higher owned players and filling in the rest of the lineup with high leverage players. Again, keep an eye on ceiling while doing this as a low owned players is great, but if they don't have a high ceiling, they may not help you gain a ton of ground on the field.

Lets Dive in!

Quarterback Cash/Tournament Pool

Interestingly enough, the optimizer generated the same pool at the quarterback position. Justin Herbert stands out as the highest ceiling Quarterback in a game where the Chargers should be able to do whatever they want. If I'm not going with Herbert in cash I will likely play Jalen Hurts as he offers a really solid rushing floor at home against a really bad Giants team.

In tournaments, the model really seems to like Matt Ryan. This is a tough play to tout, but the Falcons are playing the Lions. Kirk Cousins double stacks are a contrarian way to get exposure to the highest scoring game on the slate according to Vegas over/unders.

If playing any other of the quarterbacks, be sure to at least stack then with one pass catcher and consider running it back with a TE or WR on the other team. I'll have suggestions on stacks in the "Stacks Tab" of the spreadsheet.

Running Back Cash Pool

For Cash RBs, I will likely go with the players that have high ownership% and solid projections. Cash is not the place to get cure. Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Joe Mixon Stand out as the primary running back on teams that are heavily favored at home. These types of backs typically see game scripts that make it very hard for them to fail. Note: Miles Sanders, Justin Jackson, and Ronald Jones are also great plays this week and are not in the player pool. I would only play them in cash though and will fully fade them in tournaments.

Running Back Tournament Pool

In tournaments, we see plenty of familiar faces from the cash pool with the addition of Melvin Gordon. Michael Carter burnt a lot of people last week and it surprises me to see him again. Proceed with caution as he plays for an awful team. However, they are favored this week against the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars.

Wide Receiver Cash Pool

Again, for cash, I am going to target players where the model and the field agree. Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson will offer plenty of ceiling for your lineups and should be easy to fit in your lineups if you pay down at Quarterback and Running back. It feels like a good week to pay up at wide receiver. On the low end, I really like Nico Collins as the Texans will need to put up points to keep up with the Chargers and Brandin Cooks is out. I'm not as excited about Darnell Mooney with the recent news that Nick Foles will get the start. Laquon Treadwell has led the Jaguars in targets the past 3 weeks so he is a really good option at $3500 as well. Russel Gage -- People are asking, is he elite? His 30% target share sure says he is.

Wide Receiver Tournament Pool

Van Jefferson Joins the chat as a way to get contrarian exposure to the MIN - LAR game. Stacking him with Stafford while fading Kupp is hard to stomach, but is the type of play that can win you a big tournament. Tyler Lockett is perpetually overlooked and should be a great play again this week. Adam Thielen as a pivot off Justin Jefferson has been making saavy tournament players money all year. Hunter Renfrow is still underrated because he is balding.

Tight End Cash Pool

I hate the tight end position. I will try to pay down as much as I can. My model absolutely loves Brevin Jordan and CJ Uzomah. Again, I hate tight end.

Tight End Tournament Pool

Kyle Pitts is the poster child for peripheral volume not being realized. Maybe this is the week he cashes in on all those unrealized air yards. I am going to play Matt Ryan and Kyle Pitts and I am probably going to be disappointed. A lot of the tournament lineups I generated are very bullish on Tyler Higbee. Did i mention how much I hate the tight end position?

Defense/Special/Teams Cash/Tournament Pool

I need to finish this article so for defense I'll leave you with a couple of tips: Pay down, fade high-owned defenses in tournaments, and try to pair your defense with an RB that's on a team that is heavily favored at home.

If you made it this far thank you for reading. Let me know what you think of the article/plays on [Twitter] (https://twitter.com/run_the_sims). Good luck everyone and don't forget to Buy Me a Coffee if you hit it big out there this week!