Run the Sims: Week 15 DraftKings Player Pool

Warning: We are going super contrarian this week in tournaments.

James Conner

Welcome to the Week 15 Player Pool! I'll be using the following sources of data to create a pool of players to use in both cash games and tournaments on Draftkings. If you play on Yahoo or Fanduel and want advice feel free to hit me up on the Gridiron AI Slack Channel.

To create the player pool, I run this super fancy (not really) program I wrote to aggregate projections from the following sources:

The Week 14 Player Pool had plenty of hits, and I am thrilled with my recommendations there. Hopefully you landed on some solid lineups! In my lineups, I was able build a really solid cash game lineup that included the scrappy, balding Hunter Renfrow and the Mormon Monster Taysom Hill. I won 65% of my head to heads and cashed in the larger field double-ups. In tournaments, I made a pretty brutal mistake in playing Antonio Gibson at a really high rostership % on every single one of my 6 lineups -- except one. Bad News for me, my pivot was to Terry McLaurin who air-balled. Get 'em next time.

If any of this information is helpful to you, feel free to Buy Me a Coffee for my troubles.

You can find the projections here under the "Sims" tab and the player pool under the "Pool" tab.

If you want to blindly fire the player pool into your lineups, stop here. If you want to learn how to best use the player pool, keep reading.

Having accurate projections is half the battle when it comes to winning in DFS. What separates the scientists from the artists is being able to create unique lineups that are thoughtful and highly correlated. For the rest of the article, I will provide what I believe to be the best plays on the slate at each position while giving some context on how I think these plays are best implemented within your cash and tournament lineups. Let's dive in:

QB Player Pool (bold denotes cash game consideration)

Josh Allen

Josh Allen, vs CAR, $7800
Kyler Murray, @DET, $7900
Dak Prescott, @NYG, $6500 *
Tua Tagovailoa, vs. NYJ, $5700
Tyler Huntley (If Lamar Sits), vs. GB, $5400
Ben Roethlisberger, vs. TEN, $5600
Trevor Lawrence, vs. Hou, $5100 (More on Lawrence in the RB section)

In cash games like head-to-heads and double-ups, it makes sense to go after quarterbacks with the highest floor-ceiling projection at lower cost when possible since the range of outcomes for quarterbacks is a little tighter than other positions. Tua Tagovailoa plays the Jets at home in a divisional game this week. The last time the two met was in week 10, and Tua threw for 273 yards and two touchdowns. The second divisional game between teams can trend to be a little lower scoring, but that isn't scaring Vegas off this game as the Dolphins have an implied team total of 26 points. Another area that gives me pause is that Tua does not add much with his legs, so his floor is lower than some of the other options on the slate. I am leaning toward Tua in cash, but there are some paths to him not returning value, so I will likely fade in tournaments completely. On Second thought, it looks like spending up at QB won't be all that hard. That's likely the path I will take.

Josh Allen looks to be a really solid play this week as he is playing a non-divisional game late in the year, is averaging at least 30 rush yards per game, and has the highest QB ceiling on the slate. The only reservation I have is his turf toe injury but he looked fine this week, even taking some time off to see a production of Hamilton. Side note: what a musical. Anyway, Allen was not on the final injury report and should be full systems go. He is coming in as the second most rostered QB on the slate right now, but I am comfortable eating the chalk as he offers an incredible ceiling that others don't possess. His stack partners Diggs, Beasley, and Gabe Davis will be super chalky this week so If I play Allen in tournaments, I am leaning toward pairing him with Dawson Knox.

Kyler Murray offers a similar floor and ceiling as Allen in a cake matchup against expansion-level Detroit Lions. Sharp bettors like the Cardinals offense as well as their opening line implied team total has risen more than 2 points in the past week. That type of line movement usually leads to pretty solid QB fantasy scoring. He offers $200 in salary relief at the cost of being more popular than Allen. Interestingly, His pass catchers are pretty low-rostered right now. Christian Kirk seems to be the guy everyone wants to stack with Murray, while AJ Green and Rondale Moore come in at sub-10% rostered. I think my favorite stack partner for Murray is Zach Ertz as he knocks out the gross TE position and is also contrarian. the way this play fails is if the Cards get WAY UP and bleed the clock for half.

Contrarian Pivots

Dak Prescott was a bit of let down last week in a game where the Cowboys got up big early and clocked the game away with Corey clement. RIP Zeke by the way. Stacking him with both CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper is a great way to get contrarian. Running that stack back with one of the offensive pieces for the Giant should also keep your lineup unique on a week where it just feels like the chalk is going to fail. An added bonus of playing Prescott is that his price might force the rest of your lineup into more unique combinations since he is at a middling price of $6500 where the other "good" plays are at the low and high end of the price spectrum. His salary has dropped over $500 over the past month, which aligns with the general sentiment surrounding him and his low rostership percentage.

If we get news that Lamar Jackson will sit tomorrow, Tyler Huntley is firmly in play. His rostership % will be lower than it should because the news will come late and the field will be anchored in their lineups by that point. You'll be able to do whatever you want with the rest of your lineup which should offer plenty of ceiling. Huntley could easily go for 100 rush yards in this game which would be an absolute smash at his price tag.

Ben Roethlisberger is completely cooked, but in the last few weeks he has put up solid fantasy numbers. At home against the putrid Titans defense at low rostership is a great spot for tournaments. Najee Harris will be popular this week as well and doesn't really have the ceiling where fading him will kill you in tournaments. I like stacking Ben with Claypool this week. I'm not sure I am in love with the double-stack as Diontae is going to be pretty popular.

RB Player Pool (bold denotes cash game consideration)

Javonte

James Robinson, vs. Hou, $5400
Najee Harris, vs. TEN, $7800
Myles Gaskin, vs. NYJ, $5600
James Conner, @DET, $6400
Chase Edmonds, @DET, $5100
Javonte Williams, vs. CIN, $6100
AJ Dillon, @BAL, $5700
Aaron Jones, @BAL, $6600
Michael Carter, @MIA, $4700
Jeff Wilson, vs. ATL, $5000

This is a really bad slate for running backs. There really isn't anywhere to pay up aside from Najee Harris who should see plenty of volume at home against Tennessee, but he lacks the explosive to have a truly elite ceiling. There really isn't a ton of ceiling at running back this week, so going with Najee might be a good play as most other running-backs won't see the same volume.

James Robinson is lock-in cash. The Texans are in the bottom 20% of the league in points allowed against the position. I am not going to fade the crowd there. However, he plays for the Jags and will be rostered by almost half the field in large-field tournaments. I will not play James Robinson in tournaments. Thank you. A good leverage play would be to go with Trevor Lawrence and Marvin Jones as a contrarian pivot.

Myles Gaskin is another interesting play in cash as the Dolphins should control this game as 9-point favorites at home against the Jets. The Jets are also in the bottom 20% of the league in points allowed to RBs. I will likely fade Gaskin in tournaments as he is a very shaky option and isn't offering any contrarian leverage.

Contrarian Pivots

A play I like a lot more than Gaskin is James Conner. I may go with him in both cash and tournaments. He is a little banged up, but is absolutely crushing this year and will be lower-rostered due to the return of Chase Edmonds. Both backs can return really solid value this week against the lowly Lions. Conner is one of my favorite plays this week.

Javonte Williams is hitting every single mark you need to hit to be a late-season smash. I think his popularity this week will be limited by Melvin Gordon's health. Williams is averaging 4.8 ypc, 3.0 targets, 20 PPG over the last month. Gordon has a sprained thumb which should lock Williams into the 3rd-down pass-catching role that will help him rack up the PPR points.

AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones both stand out as awesome pivots off the chalk. Dillon is priced near the very popular Gaskin and Robinson and has a similar ceiling projection to both. Aaron Jones is probably the most explosive RB on the slate and is worth playing at his rostership percentage. For what it's worth, he isn't projecting as well as Dillon. Playing Dillon and fading Devante Adams is the type of play that can either bury you or win you a big tournament.

Michael Carter is the cheap RB that everyone will play this week. I may throw him in a tournament lineup or two in order to access some of the elite wideouts on the slate. I'm not sure you need to go there though.

Jeff Wilson is a really solid value again as the lead back for the 49ers against the awful Falcons defense. If the game gets out of hand early, he could get 20+ touches.

Just a quick note here: This RB slate is GARBAGE. My priority will be to pay down/be as contrarian as possible because I don't see a whole lot that I am confident in.

WR Player Pool (bold denotes cash game consideration)

Davante

DaVante Parker, vs. NYJ, $4300
Diontae Johnson, vs. TEN, $7500
Davante Adams, @BAL, $8900
Stefon Diggs, vs. CAR, $7700
Cole Beasley, vs. CAR, $4900
Christian Kirk, @DET, $5300
Deebo Samuel, vs. ATL, $8200
AJ Green, @DET, $4900
CeeDee Lamb, @NYG, $7400
Brandon Aiyuk, vs. ATL, $6300
Marquise Brown, vs. GB, $5900
Ja'Marr Chase, @DEN, $7100
Tee Higgins, @DEN, $6500
Amari Cooper, @NYG, $6400
Chase Claypool, vs. TEN, $5900
Jerry Juedy, vs. CIN, $5400
DJ Moore, @BUF, $6000
Gabriel Davis, vs. CAR, $3700
Rondale Moore, @DET, $4400

As much as I hate the RB pool, I love the WR pool. DaVante Parker comes in as the best value on the slate with a 20+ point ceiling projection at $4300. I will likely play him in cash and fully fade him in tournaments. A really solid pivot off Parker for tournaments is Rondale Moore who, with Chase Edmonds back, could see his usage increase. I think a big game is still within Rondale Moore's range of outcomes and you can get a spike game here at low ownership while gaining a ton of ground on the field if DeVante Parker fails.

Speaking of Davante (lowercase "v"), it will be VERY hard to fade Devante Adams this week. The Ravens are coming in with a few practice-squad-level players in their secondary. He will be very popular in tournaments and you almost have to play him in cash. One way to differentiate from the field would be to fade Adams altogether and play AJ Dillon. If Lamar Jackson sits, it is likelier that GB controls this game after getting up early. There is a path to Adams not returning a monster ceiling game, and if that happens it is likely the Packers pound the rock to clock the game with AJ Dillon. That type of play can win you a tournament but is not for the faint of heart as Devante Adams is one of the few players on this slate that possesses a 40+ point ceiling in his range of outcomes.

Another great play that could come in lower-rostered than I currently have him projected is Deebo Samuel. He should get 6 or so carries and return to more of a full time role as a receiver as he is likelier more healthy this week than he was last week. Brandon Aiyuk is also an amazing tournament play this week in the same game. I don't think I will stack either with Jimmy G, but I am definitely interested in playing both as one-offs in tournaments.

Dionte Johnson is another cash game lock this week as he has had at least 7 targets in his past 16 games. That's the type of volume that is really hard to get away from in a cash lineup. A pivot that I like is actually someone on the same team. Chase Claypool is also averaging at least 7 targets over his past 16 games and has a monster ceiling that we haven't seen yet this year. If the touchdowns go his way instead of Diontae or Najee, playing him will put you well ahead of the field.

Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, and Gabe Davis give you access to the Bills offensive machine at different price points. Of the three, I think I want to prioritize Diggs in both cash and tournament lineups as I think he will go lower rostered than he should with a lot of other plays being more popular. If I can;t fit him in cash, I think the play I like more is Gabe Davis as he offers more ceiling than Karen, I mean Cole Beasley. Again, my favorite receiver to play with Josh Allen is Dawson Knox.

AJ Green is someone that no one will want to play as he is #old. However, he is playing the Lions and is a favorite target of Kyler Murray in the redzone. I think he has a slightly higher probability of scoring a touchdown that his teammate, who is an awesome cash play, Christian Kirk. I think I will play one of AJ Green or Rondale Moore in tournaments, and Kirk in cash.

Contrarian Pivots

Ceedee Lamb and Amari Coooper come in a little underwhelming in projections; however, I think both posess a pretty solid ceiling against the lowly Giants and will be underrostered with all the other plays on the slate. Again, I think bringing it back with Saquon Barkley is a solid way to bring it back. If (Big IF with Mike Glennon at QB) the Giants put up a lot of points, it will likely flow through Barkley.

Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are again great tournament plays. I think this game could shootout as the Broncos will want to run the ball, but as we saw last week against the 49ers, the Bengals may make that difficult on them. There is a scenario where this game turns into a shootout and a Ja'marr Chase or Tee Higgins stack with Jerry Jeudy wins all the money.

DJ Moore does not project to be all that popular this week despite Bills stacks being a favorite tournament play of many. I think he comes in a little higher rostered than expected as many people will choose him as the bring back in Allen stacks.

Marquise Brown will go severely under rostered whether Lamnar plays or not. Any time a player with his explosiveness is not popular it makes sense to consider him for tournaments. It hink he is a eally solid way to correlate with Devante Adams while making your lineup more unique.

TE Player Pool (bold denotes cash game consideration)

Dawson Knox

George Kittle, vs. ATL, $7500
Mike Gesicki, vs. NYJ, $5000
James O'Shaugnessy, vs. HOU, $3200
Dawson Knox, vs. CAR, $5100
Mark Andrews, vs. GB, $6400
Zach Ertz, @DET, $5400
Pat Freiermuth, vs. TEN, $4500

Everyone has finally caught up with the fact that George Kittle is back to absolutely smashing as the main engine of the 49ers offense. It seems like when Kyle Shanahan gets in a high-pressure situation he leans on Kittle as his main playmaker. That was certainly the case last week in a tight game against the Bengals. You can certainly afford Kittle in cash this week and I think he is a great play. On the other hand, I think he is a great fade in tournaments as Deebo Samuel is another week healthier and I don't think the 49ers will need to lean on him to help them win against the Falcons.

Mike Gesicki is a cheat code in the sense that he is essentially a slot wide receiver that you can play at the tight end position. If you want to pay up for Najee or fit both Diggs and Adams into your lineup for cash, Gesicki is a great way to do that. If you want to pay all the way down at the position, James O'Shaughnessy is getting plenty of volume at a #3200 price tag. I will likely fade both options in tournaments.

Contrarian Pivots

Dawson Knox might end up being pretty popular as a stack partner with Josh Allen, but I think he is a great way to include the high-ceiling QB in a stack at lower rostership %.

We saw last week that Tyler Huntley treated Mark Andrews as a safety blanket when he came in for Lamar Jackson. I think he is a great pivot off of George Kittle as a way to build ceiling into the tight end position while staying contrarian.

I love Zach Ertz this week in tournaments as I think he is a big part of the Cardinals redzone offense. He has been averaging 8.0 PPG over the past month, which is a great floor at an awful position.

Another play I really like in tournaments this week is Pat Freiermuth who is an absolute touchdown scoring machine. He is also averaging 8.0 PPG over the last month.

DST Player Pool (bold denotes cash game consideration)

Dallas DST, @NYG, $3600
Arizona DST, @DET, $4000
Jacksonville DST, vs. HOU $2800
Miami DST, vs. NYJ, $3700
Green Bay DST, @BAL, #3300

At defense this week, it seems like paying up will be doable and a way to differentiate from the field. the defenses I have recommended above are all playing teams that are projected to score less than 21 points. This trend correlates very well with defensive fantasy scoring. I think pairing James Conner with the Arizona DST and AJ Dillon with Green Bay DST are great tournament correlation plays. Paying down for Jacksonville at home against HOU seems like a great play as well as that came could be an absolute dumpster fire with a lot of turnovers. Finally, we will finish up our tour of defenses against bad teams with the *Miami DST** against the Jets at home.

If you made it this far, thanks for reading hopefully you learned something. If you would like an outline of the player pool and all the stack combinations discussed in this article, navigate to the "Pool" section of the spreadsheet found here. I'll have some Sunday morning updates for you as we get some more news so stay tuned. Good luck everyone and don't forget to Buy Me a Coffee if you hit it big out there this week!