Run the Sims: Week 14 DraftKings Player Pool

Using Machine Learning and Wisdom of The Crowd to Benefit from Chaos

Kamara Cover

Welcome to the Week 14 Player Pool! I'll be using the following data sources to create a pool of players to use in both cash games and tournaments on Draftkings. If you play on Yahoo or Fanduel and want advice feel free to hit me up on the Gridiron AI Slack Channel.

To create the player pool, I run this super fancy (not really) program I wrote to aggregate projections from the following sources:

So far, aggregating these projections has been more accurate than anyone projection on its own. For the nerds out there, the r-squared value for the aggregated projections has hovered right around 0.59 all season, while the individual projection r-squared values come in a little lower at 0.52-0.58. In short, combining all of the projections above is giving us a bit of an edge. Another advantage of the aggregated projections is they differentiate us from the crowd so we can build more unique lineups.

If any of this information is helpful to you, feel free to Buy Me a Coffee for my troubles.

You can find the projections here under the "Sims" tab and the player pool under the "Pool" tab.

Stop here if you want to blindly fire the player pool into your lineups. Keep reading if you want to learn how to best use the player pool.

Having accurate projections is half the battle when it comes to winning in DFS. What separates the scientists from the artists is being able to create unique lineups that are thoughtful and highly correlated. For the rest of the article, I will provide what I believe to be the best plays on the slate at each position while giving some context on how I think these plays are best implemented within your cash and tournament lineups. Let's dive in:

QB Player Pool (bold denotes cash game consideration)

Dak Prescott Smash

Taysom Hill @ NYJ, $5600
Cam Newton vs. ATL, $5400
Josh Allen, @ TB, $7800
Patrick Mahomes vs., LV $8000you a
Tom Brady vs. BUFF, $7600
Justin Herbert vs. NYG, $7100
Lamar Jackson @ CLE, $7400
Dak Prescott @WAS, $6700

In cash games like head-to-heads and double-ups, it makes sense to go after quarterbacks with the highest floor-ceiling projection at a lower cost when possible since the range of outcomes for quarterbacks is a little tighter than other positions. This sets up a good week to pay down as there are multiple options under 6K with a good point per dollar projections. Taysom Hill projects as the most popular quarterback play on Draftkings this week. I don't see a good reason to move off him in cash games as he is playing the Jets and carries a phenomenal floor-ceiling combination at just $5600. Cam Newton also projects as great value given his price, but he has a much lower ceiling and floor than Hill. I will only go to Newton if you need the extra $200 (spoiler alert: you won't). If I am paying down at QB in tournaments, I will likely play Cam Newton over the more popular Taysom Hill as a way to leverage the field.

If you paid up at quarterback in cash, I would go with Josh Allen as he is playing on the road against the Buccaneers in what should be a high-flying shootout. It's tough to see a scenario where Josh Allen fails in this spot.

For tournaments, I like to let the popularity of the WRs and tight ends dictate who I play at quarterback. At first glance, it looks as though Patrick Mahomes will come in under-rostered. Stacking him with one of Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce will be an exciting way to differentiate from the field as the high price tag is a challenge most will not be willing to take on. I am concerned about them playing the Raiders for the second time this year.

Tom Brady to Chris Godwin will be popular again this week. If you plan on playing this, make sure you target lower-owned players elsewhere. You can pair that stack with Stefon Diggs on the way back as a way to get a correlated, high ceiling piece into your lineup. Because of this, Diggs will likely come in at higher ownership in tournaments.

Justin Herbert should see plenty of roster-ship at home against the lowly Giants. Most people will want to stack him with two of Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, and Jared Cook as a way to capture a large portion of their hefty 26.5 implied point team total. Since Herbert stacks will be popular, be sure to get contrarian elsewhere in your lineup if you decide to go there.

The general rhetoric around Lamar Jackson has not been great, so he should come in incredibly low-rostered. On top of that, he plays the Browns for the second time in 3 weeks. I will likely stack him with one of Mark Andrews and Hollywood Brown as a way to gain an edge on the field. As of right now, I lean Mark Andrews as the stack partner as it knocks out the tight end spot, which is always a bonus.

A quick tangent: For those not aware, the tight end position is a dumpster fire. Therefore, it makes sense to boost your expected value at the position by correlating it with another piece in your lineup. If you aren't able to do that, you might as well pay down as far as you can at the position. This week, it will be difficult to pay down at the position. More on that later.

It looks like the Cowboys' offense will not be popular this week. Dak Prescott looks like an incredible way to differentiate from the field. It also appears that his pass-catchers will be under-rostered as well. I could see the Cowboys coming into this game with a pass-heavy game plan as they have three healthy wide receivers and two RBs that are a little banged up.

RB Player Pool (bold denotes cash game consideration)

Saquonspot

Jeff Wilson @ CIN, $4400
Antonio Gibson vs. DAL, $5400
Josh Jacobs @ KC, $6200
Javonte Williams vs. DET, $5900
Austin Ekeler vs. NYG, $8300
Leonard Fournette vs. BUFF, $7400
Saquon Barkley @LAC, $6000
Ezekiel Elliot @WAS, $7300
Nick Chubb vs. Ravens, $7600
Alvin Kamara @NYJ, $7900
D'Onta Foreman vs. JAX, $5100

Elijah Mitchell was declared out Friday night, meaning Jeff Wilson at $4400 is mispriced for the lead back in Kyle Shanahan's run-heavy scheme. I think you need to lock him into cash-game lineups. I think I will fade Wilson in tournaments as there is a path to him splitting more carries with Hasty than we think. He could realistically lose all of the pass down work to Hasty as well, making him a really solid fade in tournaments.

Fantasy-Twitter Darling Antonio Gibson is coming off back-to-back 20+ point performances with J.D. McKissic sidelined due to a concussion. There is a chance McKissic suits up this week, and if that is the case, I will likely stay away in both tournaments and cash games.

Josh Jacobs projects to be popular this week as there is plenty of buzz around his new-found pass game role with Kenyan Drake and Jalen Richard out for the season. Jacobs has always had a capped ceiling with little pass game involvement; now, he has an actual workhorse role. Right now, the projections say he will be a popular play. I struggle to buy that as people HATE playing Josh Jacobs. The sentiment around Jacobs is something to monitor heading into Sunday.

Javonte Williams was the talk of the town in Week 13 and delivered as the every-down back against the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. Melvin Gordon looks like he will suit up in this week's contest, so I think expectations should be hampered. Willams or Gordon both shape up to be exciting tournament plays now that both are healthy.

Austin Ekeler sticks out as the highest ceiling player at the position with an upside projection over 30 points. After paying down at quarterback, I am comfortable locking him into cash game lineups as he should see plenty of targets with Keenan Allen declared out due to a positive COVID test. I will likely fade Ekeler in tournaments to save on salary and gain leverage on the field. This brings us to...

Alvin Kamara is catching some steam in the industry, and rightly so. He could see 30 touches against the Jets and is as close to 100% healthy as he has been all season. He will be decently popular, but I think this is an excellent opportunity to be overweight on one of the most talented players in the NFL. Kamara is also a great way to pivot off Taysom Hill, who - as we discussed earlier - should be the most popular QB play on the slate.

Leonard Fournette looks like a great play in tournaments and cash games as the Bills run defense has been gashed over the last few weeks. They gave up monster games to the Jets RBs, Jonathan Taylor, and New England RBs in 3 of the previous four weeks. I think the Buccaneers will attack the Bills with a balanced attack, giving Fournette plenty of opportunity to put up points.

Ezekiel Elliot is basically the opposite of Antonio Gibson when it comes to sentiment. He is certainly not passing the eye test, but Jerry Jones seems hell-bent on getting a return on his investment. On top of that, Zeke may get more opportunity as Tony Pollard looks to be a game-time decision with a foot injury. Zeke is shaping up to be one of my favorite tournament plays as absolutely no one wants to play old man Zeke, and he looks like a great pivot off Leonard Fournette at $100 cheaper. ==Update: it looks like Zeke might be popular --

SOUND THE ALARM: Nick Chubb is coming in at sub 1% rostered. Yes, Kareem Hunt should be back, but we have seen Nick Chubb get there even when splitting work with Hunt. This play is all about leveraging the field and hoping Chubb puts up one of his patented 100 yards 2 - touchdown games. Chubb is another great way to pivot off more popular plays like Fournette and Ekeler.

Saquon Barkley projects as a solid value at a modest $6000 price tag. I don't think many people will play him in tournaments which makes him an interesting play. We have not seen an actual ceiling game from him since he injured his ankle, but I think a 30+ point game is still in his range of outcomes.

D'onta Foreman is going to go overlooked at his price tag of $5100, but he should get plenty of volume against Jacksonville's lousy defense. He is the lead back in Tennessee despite Hilliard outscoring him the last they split carries. I'll have him in a few of my tournament lineups—especially larger field tournaments.

WR Player Pool (bold denotes cash game consideration)

Mt. St. Julio

Mike Williams vs. NYG, $6000
Chris Godwin vs. BUF, $7100
Hunter Renfrow @KC, $6100
Tyreek Hill vs. LV, $8500
Stefon Diggs @TB, $8100
Tyler Lockett @HOU, $6700
DK Metcalf @HOU, $6500
Ja'Marr Chase vs. SF $6900
Mike Evans vs. BUF, $6600
Jamison Crowder vs. NO, $4700
Josh Palmer vs. NYG $3000
CeeDee Lamb @WAS, $7200
Terry McLaurin vs. DAL $7000
Brandon Aiyuk @CIN, $5800
Jerry Jeudy vs. DET, $5600
DJ Moore vs. ATL, $6200
Amari Cooper @WAS $5900
Michael Gallup @WAS, $5500
Russell Gage, @CAR, $5700
Marquise Brown @CLE, $6300
Julio Jones vs. JAX, $5400
Tre'Quan Smith, vs. NYJ, $4800
Tee Higgins vs. SF, $6400

Mike Willams seems to be a cash game lock and load as a receiver that should get plenty of targets in he Chargers high paced, pass-heavy scheme. He's a player I will likely fade in tournaments as he is a volatile player at high rostership. If he is in a tournament lineup of mine, I will get very contrarian at other positions.

Chris Godwin is another cash game must as Tom Brady continues to dictate that the Bucs pass the ball 50 times a game so he can remain relevant enough to pump his NFT company. I digress. Godwin is an excellent play in cash an -- as always -- in play as part of a double stack with Gronk or Mike Evans. Make sure to be more unique in other areas of your tournament lineups if you decide to include Godwin in a double stack. For the record, I would not play Mike Evans in Cash as he carries a lower floor with the type of targets he gets.

Hunter Renfrow is a reliable option with a decent ceiling in a game that could demand a lot of pass volume from Derek Carr. Waller is out this week and the pass offense seems to funnel through the scrappy, balding Renfrow. I'll be playing him in cash and a decent amount in tournaments while looking to be contrarian elsewhere.

Renfrow Balding

Tyreek Hill is literally the poster boy for Josh Hermsmeyer's Air Yards buy-low model this week as a player that has not realized the fantasy points that are correlated with the type of downfield volume he sees. I think he comes in as a fantastic tournament play as I think a lot of players will elect to save some money and pivot to Stefon Diggs at a similar price. Diggs will also be part of a lot of TB/Buf stacks. I will likely play Tyreek in tournaments while pivoting to Stefon Diggs in cash games. I'll save myself some time here by saying that Diggs is awesome in a game that will probably shootout... play him in cash and tournaments.

DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett both project really well this week and are more popular than I thought they would be. I wouldn't blame anyone for taking a swing at a Russ double in a game where the Seahawks should be able to do whatever they want. The problem is, Pete Carroll wants to RUN THE DAMN BALL.For that reason, I'm out.

Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins both project as less popular plays that have really solid ceiling projections. I really like pairing one of them with Brandon Aiyuk or George Kittle as a "mini stack" to add some correlation to my tournament lineups. Both teams have injury/illness concerns at the running back position so the offensive production could flow through the pass game. The downside case for this mini-stack is that Jimmy Garrappolo is a league average QB at best and Joe Burrow's hand blew up like a balloon last week with a pinky injury. On top of that, both teams lean run first when given the option. I will have exposure to this mini-stack in at least one of my tournament lineups, as it offers excellent leverage on teams that play Jeff Wilson.

Speaking of Brandon Aiyuk, I will quickly note that I would not play him as a standalone. If he goes off, so does one of Chase or Higgins. I think Deebo Samuel will be active in a limited role (if at all), so I would not let his activation on Sunday deter you from playing Aiyuk or Kittle. I'll have more on Kittle in the tight end section, but I am leaning more toward playing him as they bring back in a Bengals stack since he is also going overlooked.

Listen, I wouldn't say I like this. I hate it. But Elijah Moore is banged up, and Corey Davis is done for the year. The Jets are down to Ty Johnson and Austin Walters at RB. If the Jets are to move the ball, it will likely flow through Jamison Crowder. The problem is, the offense might not move the ball at all. I will do everything I can to avoid Jamison Crowder in cash games, but he is definitely in play at his price tag. I don't want to hitch my cash game lineup to Zach Wilson. I'm Sorry. Please do me a favor and do not play Jamison Crowder in tournaments. Please.

If you are going to pay down at WR, I think you are better off going with the following players: Josh Palmer as he will see more targets with Keenan Allen out and might be pretty talented. Plus, he's 3K which allows you to do interesting things at other positions. It also doesn't look like he will be all that popular. See! you don't have to play Crowder. Tre'Quan Smith is also a reasonable pivot off of Crowder at a similar price tag as a player that should see more volume with Deonte Harris suspended for three games. People are all over Taysom Hill, but they are not as excited about playing Smith. Curious!

If you are going to get frisky and play Cam Newton in tournaments (after further examination, I have decided that no one will play him), I think you should stack him with DJ Moore Moore is a good pivot off the Renfrow chalk (what a world) and correlates well. You can bring it back with Russel Gage who does is not popular despite demanding a 30% target share over the last two weeks. To be clear, I am only playing Gage in Cam - Moore stacks as a bring-back. No need to go there as a one-off.

I want to recommend Jeudy as a great contrarian play, but I don't think Detroit shows up for this game. There doesn't appear to be a strong case for any ceiling plays in this game, as it is unlikely the Lions will be able to put up enough of a fight for Jeudy to get a ton of volume. As he is popping in the model as a low-rostered play, I've included him. I'm not falling over myself to play him personally.

Cowboys WRs Gallup, Cooper, and Ceedee all project as great plays on this slate. I am warming up to a Dak double stack with Ceedee and one of Gallup, Cooper, and Dalton Schultz. This allows you to play some safer, more popular plays elsewhere as the Dak double stacks will likely be pretty contrarian. I love bringing it back with Terry McLaurin at a really low % rostered number. This is a stack where you get a lot of talented pieces in your lineup while not eating a ton of chalk.

Julio Jones is POPPING in the model, and no one will play him. At $5400, I will have plenty of exposure and hope that we get a full game out of him. This play is not for the faint of heart.

I'm including Marquise Brown in here despite preferring Mark Andrews in my Lamar Jackson lineups. I think you could also go with Brown in that single stack. Playing both is thin because Lamar may not throw the ball enough to support both in a divisional matchup against a team that will likely run the ball a ton. The path to this game shooting out is the Browns being able to gash the Ravens on the ground. I like bringing the Lamar single stacks back with Nick Chubb as a super contrarian piece of my lineup. The rest of the lineup can be a little chalky if you go in this direction.

TE Player Pool (bold denotes cash game consideration)

Dawson Knox

Austin Hooper vs. BAL, $3400
Jared Cook vs NYG, $3200
Rob Gronkowski vs. BUF, $6000
James O'Shaugnessy @TEN, $2900
Brock Wright vs DEN, $2500
Travis Kelce vs. LV ,$7400
Mark Andrews @CLE, $5900
Noah Fant vs. DET, $4500
George Kittle @CIN, $6900
Kyle Pitts @CAR, $5500
Dalton Schultz @WAS, $5400
Dawson Knox @TB, $5000
Foster Moreau vs. KC, $4000

This is a really interesting week at tight end, and I won't write up all of these players as I respect my mental health. I will offer different contexts you should think about when you are putting these players into your lineups.

In Cash games, I'll likely play Austin Hooper as he will probably be second in line for targets with David Njoku and Harrison Bryant out for Sunday's game against the Ravens. If I decide to move off Hooper, it will be to save a little money with Cook, who could see an increase in volume with Allen out. If I want to save a lot of money, I will completely punt off the position with Jams o-shag - Hennessy or TJ Hockenson's(Out, Hand) backup Brock Wright who is from tight end factory Notre Dame and ran a 4.6 40. I've played worse min priced tight ends.

For tournaments, the rest of your lineup will dictate where you go at the tight end. It makes sense structurally to force yourself on some higher-priced tight ends as they all offer high ceiling projections at low roster percentage. The challenge here is savings elsewhere. There are enough low-priced players that aren't too chalky to make up for George Kittle, Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, or Mark Andrews. I will probably not stack Kelce as that gets pretty pricey, with Mahomes and Tyreek carrying high price tags. Kittle makes sense to stack with Ja'marr Chase or Tee Higgins, but not Jimmy G. Gronk is interesting as a one-off, but I think the popularity of the TB/BUF will drag his popularity up a little. If playing Gronk, I would consider fading Chris Godwin in the same lineup. Mark Andrews shapes up to be a solid price for the ceiling his offers. I don't think I'll play a ton of Lamar Jackson, but where I do, it will likely be with Mark Andrews.

Dalton Schultz Makes a ton of sense with what should be a great tournament play in Dak Prescott. Schultz has the bonus of knocking out the tight end position in a thoughtful, correlated way.

Dawson Knox is another way to get exposure to the TB/ BUF game in a unique way. I think the volume will be there to stack Dawson Knox and Stefon Diggs with Josh Allen.

Noah Fant is popping in the model as a super contrarian way to get exposure to a team that will dominate a horrible Lions defense. He could finally pop up for a spike game after being underwhelming all year. If you are playing in a large field tournament like the Milly-maker, Fant makes a ton of sense. I probably won't go there in the smaller field tournaments. Similarly, Foster Moreau burnt everyone last week as the chalk-tight end. His role is fine given his price and he could pop up for a big game at low ownership. This is another large field play that I will stay away from in the smaller field tournaments.

Kyle Pitts Kyle Pitts will win someone a lot of money one of these weeks when he finally cashes in on all his air yards. I recommended Russell Gage as the bring-back in your Cam Newton - DJ Moore stacks, but Pitts as a bring back is way more exciting. I'll probably have one Pitts lineup.

Defense Player Pool (bold denotes cash game consideration)

New Orleans D, vs. Jets $3600
Baltimore D, vs. CLE $2800
Denver D, vs. Lions, $3800
Tennessee D vs. JAX, #3700

Cleveland, Seattle, and Carolina look to be the chalk at defense. Because of this, I have eliminated them from consideration. The field has no idea at defense, so its a good place to be different. Outside of those plays, the only reasonably talented defense at a cheap price is Baltimore. I will likely go there in cash games. If not Baltimore, paying up a little for the Saints D** makes a lot of sense against "not-an- NFL quarterback" Zach Wilson.

For tournaments. Denver and Tennesseeare playing the league's worst teams at lower ownership. It may make sense to pair a Denver RB with their Defense and D'onta Foreman with Tennessee D in larger field tournaments. However, Baltimore is a solid enough overall play that I will likely play them in most of my tournament lineups.

If you made it this far, thanks for reading. Hopefully you learned something. If you would like an outline of the player pool and all the stack combinations discussed in this article, navigate to the "Pool" section of the spreadsheet found here. I'll have some Sunday morning updates for you as we get some more news, so stay tuned.

Good luck everyone, and don't forget to Buy Me a Coffee if you hit it big out there this week!