Last week we went 19/32 (59%)!!! Overall we are 32/61 (52%). Massive improvement over week one, and we’ve now had two weeks to calibrate, so I hope to keep it going. We hit on a ton of anytime TD scorers last week, and this week I LOVE the anytime TD scorer choice, so pay heed. Disclaimer as always, these are one prop per team, not just my favorite 30 props or something, because I want to give everyone a little something no matter which game you are watching. HERE WE GO.
Baltimore Ravens @ Detroit Lions | 1:00 PM EST
TJ Hockenson over 5.5 receptions -115
Baltimore has given up 10 and 8 receptions the last two weeks. Hockenson is Goff’s favorite target.
Lamar Jackson over 1.5 TD passes -115
They should move the ball up and down the field. Rodgers threw 4 TDs last week again this Lions defense. Garapolo threw 2 in week one. Seems like a logical over here.
Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars | 1:00 PM EST
Kyler Murray over 282.5 passing yards -115
We went against it two weeks in a row with the under on Murray’s passing yards. Jacksonville stinks, QBs are passing all over them, and Kyler will sail over this. Let’s admit we were wrong and back the right side here on this prop.
James Robinson over 48.5 rushing yards -115
Just a gut feeling here. The Vikings did run all over this team last week. Gridiron has him over this number at 52 rushing yards. Again, just feeling this one.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs | 1:00 PM EST
Justin Herbert under 302.5 passing yards -115
Justin Herbert is awesome. KC’s defense is mediocre, but 302 pass yards is A LOT.
Patrick Mahomes under 311.5 passing yards -115
Wait, what am I doing here? This is going to be a shoot out. It’s going to be high scoring as hell! Both QBs should sail over 300 yards passing. Gridirion even has this dude passing for 317. What am I doing? Well the Chargers have allowed 372 passing yards in TWO GAMES. I think we go against the squares here and bet on a couple of QB unders.
New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots | 1:00 PM EST
Jameis Winston over 213.5 passing yards -115
I know, I do a Jameis prop every week. We’re 1/2, but 213 passing yards is insulting. Last week was bad but he’s still getting used to being the every-week starter, and this week will be better.
Jonnu Smith over 30.5 receiving yards
Eye test tells me this guy is Mac Jones favorite of the two TEs in the passing game. They do have plays for him, and he’s been pretty involved in every game. This is a small total, and he gets over this easy. Gridiron, FWIW, has him at 35 receiving yards.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans | 1:00 PM EST
Jonathan Taylor over 63.5 rushing yards -115
Wentz is hurt; what else is new. They will rely on their bread and butter rushing attack led by their stud RB. Not really overthinking this one, and the probability of him getting enough carries to get over this number is high. Gridiron has him exactly at this number, but they don’t consider the QB situation, which makes me feel even better.
Ryan Tannehill over 249.5 passing yards -115
Breakout week. Two hundred fifty yards is nothing these days.
Washington Football Team @ Buffalo Bills | 1:00 PM EST
Devin Singletary under 46.5 rushing yards -115
Last week we bet the over, was an easy win. This week, predictably they’ve raised the rushing total based on last week’s performance. But, Zach Moss is back, and I don’t think the running attack is going to be there against Washington’s excellent defense front.
Terry McLaurin over 69.5 receiving yards -115
You could probably take this number every week and feel decent about it. Washington is going to need to throw the football to stay in this game. This guy is Heineke’s favorite target. Gridiron hates me and has him at 58 receiving yards this week I’m fading that prediction.
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants | 1:00 PM EST
Matt Ryan over 1.5 TD Passes -115
Gridiron AI is predicting 2.7 TD passes. The Giants defense is bottom of the league. This should be a high scoring game. All adding up to $$$$$.
Kenny Golloday over 3.5 receptions -115
He just yelled at his OC, that’s like the bat signal for the catch over for a receiver when it’s this low.
Cincinatti Bengals @ Pittsburg Steelers | 1:00 PM EST
Joe Burrow over 242.5 passing yards -115
Again. 250 is kind of average these days. Gridiron is has him at 353 this week. That seems aggressive but the discrepancy tells you all you need to know. Book this guy to throw for 270.
Najee Harris under 67.5 rushing yards 115
I want to see it because I own this guy in fantasy football, but I haven’t through 2 games. He’s not really getting the carry volume to hit any significant yardage numbers. Only 10 carries last week after only 16 in week 1? What did they draft this guy for!
Chicago Bears @ Cleveland Browns | 1:00 PM EST
Justin Fields over 53.5 rushing yards -115
Been waiting for this one baby. Remember what I said about Trevor Lawrence before week 1? That when he doesn’t trust what is there or if the speed of the NFL is kinda too much he’ll just run as much as possible. Well that will actually happen this week. Love this prop.
Donovan Peoples-Jones under 23.5 receiving yards -115
Beckham Jr is going to play. Everyone behind him on the depth chart is going to get less snaps including this dude. Maybe he catches a few balls and gets over this, but I am betting he doesn’t.
New York Jets @ Denver Broncos | 4:25 PM EST
Zach Wilson under 1.5 interceptions -215
This is so funny. We won the over on this last week BTW but he’s one of the only QBs in the NFL that has the O/U at 1.5 instead of 0.5. Most QBs aren’t throwing 2-3 INTs per week. I know that Denver probably has the best secondary in the NFL but the Jets will protect their young QB better this week through better play calling and he won’t toss 2 picks.
Teddy Bridgewater over 241.5 passing yards
Teddy is on fire to start the year. Gridiron hates Teddy and has him passing for 203 yards against this poo poo defense. Not really sure where that is coming from. This looks like an easy one, honestly.
Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders | 4:25 PM EST
Jacoby Brissett under 223.5 passing yards -115
Tua wasn’t even getting to this kind of number. Do you think they are going to get LESS conservative in the passing game with their back up QB?
Kenyon Drake over 9.5 rushing attempts -115
FORMER TEAM. Revenge game. They actually paid this guy in the offseason for this very moment. LFG.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles Rams | 4:25 PM EST
Tom Brady over 0.5 interceptions -130
It’s been too good to start the season. It’s the NFL; adversity is just around the corner. This is the week they run into some and Tom is gonna toss at least 1 INT.
Cooper Kupp under 7.5 receptions -115
Huge game last week. Kudos to this guy. He’s one of the best receivers in the NFL. Lucky for us, the week after a huge game like that is the time to fade. With all the targets on that offense, is he catching eight balls this week. I’ll bet NO, and you should too. Gridiron is backing me up here with five catches on eight targets.
Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings | 4:25 PM EST
Russell Wilson over 1.5 touchdown passes -220
Viking’s defense is 22 in passing DVOA. If the first two games are any indication, this could be a shootout. Russell has come out of the gates this year smoking hot, like last year. This one is a no-brainer for me.
Adam Thielen anytime touchdown scorer +105
TD machine giving us plus money for him to score a TD, yes, please.
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers | 8:20 PM EST
Davonte Adams anytime touchdown scorer -110
I will make a similar explanation for my next prop. Adams has not scored through 2 games. Rodgers knows that, and payoff time is this week.
Brandon Aiyuk over 2.5 receptions -115
This is the week they get him involved. On prime time. It’s been strange, I know, but that has caused value here. Later in the season, this guy will be in the starting WR 5.6-7.5 reception per game range, in my opinion. Get it while the getting is good.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys | 8:15 PM EST, Sept 27
Devonta Smith over 4.5 receptions -115
Let’s go back to the well. Not understanding what the game plan was last week, Dallas D + number 1 receiver status = big primetime performance.
CeeDee Lamb over 81.5 receiving yards -115
You saw what happened with no Gallup last week. This is a much worse passing defense. Gridiron AI predicts 50 receiving yards. As an Eagles fan, I hope that’s the case but trust me, I’ve watched enough Eagles-Cowboys games to tell you that pretty much any Cowboys OVER offensive prop is a value.
Thanks, everyone. If you have any questions, comments, etc hit me up in the Gridiron AI Slack channel, via email at jtroiano2@gmail.com or via my Twitter handle @jamestroiano.
Anything I see pregame after this column I will definitely drop in Slack or via Twitter. Good luck this week.