Here we are! Week 1 of the NFL season. Technically, the season started on Thursday with the thriller between Tampa Bay and Dallas (there were plenty of over and anytime TD props cashed in that game). This article, however, will focus on the Sunday/Monday games of Week 1.
We’ll aim to put this article out weekly and I’ll give you my best prop bets for every game, one for each team. Sometimes I may have a bonus bet here or there if I see two or three props we just absolutely can’t pass up. How are we looking at these props to identify success? Well…it’s gambling fam. We’re going to look at the lines, vig and then use some good ol’ intuition, team statistics and average and of course our Gridiron AI data.
I’ll do my best to explain and after each week we’ll keep track of our score to track success. LFG!
Minnesota Vikings @ Cincinatti Bengals | 1:00 PM EST
Justin Jefferson Over 75.5 Receiving Yards -115.
Look, let’s not get cute. GRIDIRON AI has Jefferson at 107 receiving yards this week. He’s an absolute stud. Cincy’s defense stinks.
Ja’Mar Chase Over 3.5 Receptions -160
The Burrow to Chase connection was insane during their magical CFB playoff run. I know Chase had some preseason issues with catching the ball but targets won’t be a problem on this team with AJ Green gone. There is nobody that Burrow trusts more than Chase. Book it.
San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions | 1:00 PM EST
Trey Sermon Longest Rush Over 11.5 yards -115
It’s possible I am getting too cute here but I can’t overlook this one. Trey Sermon showed big play ability in college. Kyle Shanahan loves to use his whole stable of RBs. Reports out of training camp on Sermon have been glowing. He’s gonna break a long one even if he gets limited carries.
De’Andre Swift Over 66.5 rushing + receiving yards -115
Two words. Anthony Lynn. Gridiron AI has 15 touches and 74 toal yards predicted here and I’ll take the over on that. Lions might get blown out but Swift is gonna get touches.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons | 1:00 PM EST
Jalen Hurts Over 242.5 passing yards -115
Falcons defense was 19th in passing DVOA last year. They got rid of some guys that could play in the secondary like Neal and Kazee. They also hired an offensive head coach so I don’t see what’s changing week 1 here against the Eagles. Maybe Dean Pees turns this defense around at some point but not this week against the dual threat Hurts and the revamped passing attack.
Calvin Ridley Over 88.5 receiving yards -115
Gridiron AI has this dude over 100. Eagles secondary sucks. Lock this one in early.
Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts | 1:00 PM EST
Carson Wentz Over 0.5 INT -150
As an Eagles fan, maybe I couldn’t help myself here. Recent history tells us that Wentz turns the ball over. Carson played 12 games last year, and this prop only didn’t cash in THREE GAMES!
DK Metcalf Longest Reception Over 24.5 yards
DK is a big-play receiver, and he’s going over 100 yards in this one. He’s good for at least one bomb. This dude eats 25-yard receptions for breakfast.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans | 1:00 PM EST
Trevor Lawrence Over 18.5 rushing yards -108
Rookie QB in his first game. He’s majorly athletic and when he doesn’t trust his eyes and as he adjusts to the game’s speed, expect him to take off and run.
Brandin Cooks Under 56.5 receiving yards -114
Cooks used to be a good player, but it’s telling that he’s been traded a million times at this point. I don’t trust Tyrod Taylor, the HC or OC to execute a competent offense. Do they have anyone else to throw to? Not really, but that just goes to show you unconfident I am in the offensive infrastructure.
Pittsburg Steelers @ Buffalo Bills | 1:00 PM EST
Stephon Diggs Anytime Scorer +100
Josh Allen should throw for a ton of yards and 3 to 4 TDs. Gridiron has him throwing 3. One of those is coming to Diggs. Usually not a huge fan of TD props but I think this number is a first game special, and you won’t see plus odds the rest of year. FYI even if you don’t see plus odds, I like this one up to -110ish
Chase Claypool Over 48.5 Receiving Yards -120
The dude is a big play receiver. Big Ben is back, has looked good in the preseason. I know the whole receiving core is back and there is competition for targets, but Claypool can go over this on only a couple of targets, and I think he’ll do it. Gridiron is backing me up with a prediction of 70 yards.
NY Jets @ Carolina Panthers | 1:00 PM EST
DJ Moore Over 60.5 receiving yards -115
11 for 90? Sounds about right by Gridiron’s analysis. He should have a big game against a bunch of guys in the NYJ secondary you’ve never heard of.
Michael Carter Under 15.5 rushing yards -120
Are my eyes deceiving me with this total? Michael Carter is 4th on the Jets depth chart and hurt. If anything, I think he may be involved in the passing game but if he gets 2 carries, I will be surprised. Obscure prop, you might be thinking that…but we’re trying to make money here.
Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans | 1:00 PM EST
Kyler Murray Under 261.6 passing yards -115
I don’t love the props in this game, but hey, I have to pick something! In a rare disagreement with the Gridiron AI projection, I’m going under here. Tennessee’s defense should be improved from last year. They were garbage last year, and I think this total is high. Murray threw for this many yards 7 times last year during the 16 game season and 3 of the times within a few yards over. This game probably isn’t going to be on anyone’s marquee watchlist, but if you take this under, you’ll definitely have something to tune in for.
AJ Brown Over 67.5 receiving yards -115
The guy is a freak; let’s not get cute. I know I just said I don’t love the props in this game, but this is one of my favorite overall. The Tannehill - Brown connection has been insane the past few years, and I don’t even think AJ needs to have one of his best games to nail the over on this. Gridiron AI has him over 80 receiving yards.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Washington Football Team | 1:00 PM EST
Justin Herbert Over 264.5 passing yards -115
How is Kyler Murray’s O/U 261.5 and Herbert’s is THREE more yards?! Washington has a good defense, but Herbert torched everyone last season. I think the sky is the limit with a new offensive staff that shouldn’t focus on the run as much as Anthony Lynn. The number should be higher, and there is value. Capture it.
Terry McLauren Over 5.5 Receptions -110
I love this prop. Who else is Fitzmagic throwing to? Logan Thomas, I guess, but Curtis Samuel is on IR, and I think T-Mac is doubling up this reception total. Oh, and Gridiron has him catching eight balls for the record, so AI is backing me up.
Denver Broncos @ NY Giants | 4:25 PM EST
Daniel Jones Over 221.5 passing yards -115
Daniel is going to chuck it around in this one. He’s got some new weapons, and the running game’s state may not be looking too hot if Barklay doesn’t play. Golladay, Sheppard, and Slayton are a pretty good receiving core too.
Jerry Jeudy Over 50.5 receiving yards -115
I am not reinventing the wheel here. This guy went over this total nine times last year with Drew Lock at QB. Drew lock stinks, and Teddy Bridgewater will be an upgrade. I think Jeudy goes over 1,000 yards this year and sets the tone for his season in the opener.
Green Bay Packers @ New Orleans Saints | 4:25 PM EST
Robert Tonyan Anytime TD Scorer +220
Hey, we’re prop betting here. You have to take a few long shots. Though I’ll argue this isn’t that long of a shot. The Saints sucked against TEs last year. They gave up 9 TDs to TEs last year; by my calculation, that is tied for 4th most in the league (with a few others).
Alvin Kamara Over 112.5 rushing + receiving yards -115
If our other play from this game is risky, this one is the opposite of risky. Green Bay was a middle-of-the-road defense last year, Michael Thomas is out, and the Saints lack big-time weapons aside from Kamara. He’ll be the focal point and, through volume, should overcome this without much sweat. As an FYI, Gridiron AI has him at 133 rushing + receiving, which might also be low.
Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs | 4:25 PM EST
Baker Mayfield Under 264.5 passing yards -115
Cleveland will run, run, run, and keep the ball out of Mahomes’ hands. You want to know how I know this? KC had one of the worst run defenses in the NFL (31st in DVOA) last year so running should be effective. Mayfield had a four game stretch last year, week’s 12-15, where he threw for more yards than this if you want some additional data. Gridiron AI does have this dude throwing for like 280, but the model has always loved Baker so I’m not putting too much stock into it for this week anyway.
Travis Kelce Anytime TD Scorer -125
This just feels right. Gridiron projects him to score, and so do I. Little bit of gut instinct and also Cleveland’s 2020 performance against TEs in which they allowed 10 TDs.
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots | 4:25 PM EST
Tua Tagovailoa Over 232.5 passing yards -115
Listen to me. Do you remember Ben DiNucci last year? He threw for 216 against the Philadelphia Eagles in what was probably the worst QB performance I have ever seen. Can Tua and this Dolphins team throw for 17 more yards than that? I’ll let you answer that by placing a large wager on this over.
Jonnu Smith Over 27.5 receiving yards -115
I’m taking the old “young QB trusts his TE” play here. This number seems low for a guy they brought in to primary be a large inside receiver. Not much other analysis than that.
Chicago Bears @ Los Angeles Rams | 4:25 PM EST
Cooper Kupp Over 5.5 receptions -125
Stafford has come to save the day for the Rams, and I am all in. Kupp was productive with Goff, and he’s going to be better this year. He’s like a large Danny Amendola for Stafford, and I think he catches 9 in this game. Gridiron has him catching 7.
Allen Robinson Over 64.5 receiving yards -115
This is just one of those “old reliable” props. Every time I see Robinson with this type of total, I take it. It doesn’t matter which QB is playing he’s good for it. He had 1250 yards last year with Foles and Trubisky.
Baltimore Ravens @ Las Vegas Raiders | 8:15 PM EST, Sept 13
Josh Jacobs Over 50.5 rushing yards -115
Gruden’s workhorse might get over this number by halftime. Another year with no clear competition in the backfield (rare these days). Gridiron’s got him at 90 yards, and I agree.
Lamar Jackson Over 210.5 passing yards -115
Who is running the ball in Baltimore. They have 4 guys they just signed off the street, they were all free agents or cut from other teams. Lamar is going to have to carry this group and I think he does it with his arm. Oh and LV had one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL last year. To back me up, Gridiron has this dude throwing for 250.
Alright, I hope everyone enjoyed those. I will keep an eye on things and tweet out anything else I see, @jamestroiano on Twitter. Good luck this week, and let’s win some bets!