With a third of the NFL season gone, this campaign is starting to take shape after some huge results in Week 6. Possibly the most impressive win of the weekend was the Lions’ dismantling of the Cowboys, which marked another real statement win for Detroit.
Other contenders to pick up big wins were the Packers, who secured a solid win at home against Arizona, and the 49ers, who look back on track following a 36-24 divisional win over Seattle.
On the other end of the scale, teams like the Saints, Jets, and Raiders are now hanging by a thread after disappointing losses last time out. Here, we’re back to try and make sense of this topsy-turvy season and look at five games to target for our daily fantasy lineups.
Game 1: Seahawks @ Falcons
- Time: 1:00pm ET
- Spread: Falcons -2.5
- AI Gridiron projected total: 51 points
The first game for our main slate selections this week is an exciting NFC matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons come into this one having won three straight, including 74 total points across their last two victories. On the other side, Seattle travels to Mercedes Benz Stadium on the back of three straight losses, the latest coming on Thursday Night Football at home to the 49ers.
Despite this run of form, we’re still confident in Geno Smith as a good starting quarterback option for this week. Smith threw for 306 yards and a touchdown last week and currently leads the NFL in passing yards with 1,778, nearly 300 per game.
This week, Smith has a projected score of 19.2 and is available for just $5,800—good value for one of the league’s most reliable QBs. He’ll be supported through the air (as always) by DK Metcalf, who continues to be vital to the Seahawks' offense, with 469 yards so far this year. On the ground, we have to consider Kenneth Walker III, who is on the expensive side at $7,300, but he’s up against one of the league’s worst rushing defenses, and his projection of 16.6 points can’t be ignored. He gets a projection of 16.6 points from our models.
For Atlanta, Kirk Cousins’ offense has really started cooking lately, meaning that this looks like one of the games of the week here for offense. Cousins himself can be a good option to build around, and this Falcons offense has more than a few options for Sunday. Last week against Carolina was a great showcase for the rushing attack, with Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson combining for 200 yards between them.
Either of these guys would be great picks here, but Allgeier could provide better value at just $5,100 and 1.53% projected ownership. However, we do have to mention Robinson at the higher projection of 19.1 points, our third-highest for running backs in the league this week. If you miss out on him and he plays as expected, you’ll be playing catchup all day.
Finally, in the Falcons' receiving corps, Drake London is in the same category as Robinson. London has been one of the league’s top receivers recently, and his 18-point projection this week shows we expect this to continue. All in all, plenty of offensive weapons to pick from in this one, which has a 51-point over/under for a reason.
Recommended stacks to build around:
- Smith + Metcalf + Walker + Robinson + London
- Cousins + Robinson + London + Metcalf
Individual Plays:
SEA:
- DK Metcalf
- K. Walker
- J. Smith-Njigba
ATL:
- B. Robinson
- T. Allgeier
- D. London
- K. Pitts
Game 2: Raiders @ Rams
- Time: 9:05pm ET
- Spread: Rams -6.5
- AI Gridiron projected total: 43 points
Next up is a West Coast clash between two teams whose seasons are in serious jeopardy. The Los Angeles Rams have been consistently one of the league’s best teams since Sean McVay’s arrival, with just one losing season out of the last seven. However, this year they sit at 1-4, and will hope that last week’s bye will help turn things around.
Their opponents on Sunday are the Las Vegas Raiders, who sit at 2-4 themselves, on course for another rough year. Despite unconvincing QB play this year, first from Gardner Minshew and currently from Aiden O’Connell, there have still been a few positives for Raider Nation.
The biggest of these is rookie Brock Bowers, who has burst onto the scene and currently leads tight ends in both receptions and yards, with 37 and 384, respectively. For a limited quarterback like O’Connell, we can expect him to keep feeding Bowers in the short game, which is why his projected score of 13.6 points trails only Travis Kelce for tight ends this week.
On the ground, Alexander Mattison looks like a good value pick, with only 2.83% of players currently selecting him. Mattison is no superstar, but at $5,500 he could be worth a look here, especially against a Rams defense that is the worst in the league on the ground.
For the Rams, we’re looking at Matthew Stafford, who hasn’t been at his best this year but could be a good pickup, especially with just 1.8% of players projected to have him this week, even though he’s against the league’s 6th worst scoring defense.
The obvious pick for the Rams here is Kyren Williams, who is expensive but reliable with a projection of 19.23 points after his success so far this season. As for the Rams' receivers, if Cooper Kupp is still unavailable, your options are between Demarcus Robinson and rookie Jordan Whittington.
Recommended stacks to build around:
- Stafford + Williams + Bowers + Mattison
Individual Plays:
LAR:
- K. Williams
- D. Robinson
- Rams D/ST
LV:
- B. Bowers
- A. Mattison
- T. Tucker
Game 3: Texans @ Packers
- Time: 1:00pm ET
- Spread: Packers -2.5
- AI Gridiron projected total: 47.5 points
Another one of the league’s most exciting matchups takes place at Lambeau Field, between two of last year’s breakthrough teams. The Packers come into this one after back-to-back wins over the Rams and Cardinals and sit at 4-2 in pro football’s best division, the NFC North.
This week promises a tough test against a 5-1 Houston team that boasts last year’s Rookie of the Year, CJ Stroud, under center. Last week saw the Texans put up 41 points despite losing Nico Collins to IR, with Stroud still throwing three touchdowns as Houston put the game away early.
Collins’ absence has allowed the likes of Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell to see more action, and we expect this to continue on Sunday in Green Bay. Diggs, in particular, looks like a good selection, with a projected score of 16.6 as he looks to take advantage of a Green Bay defense that ranks 25th in passing yards allowed. His price has risen to $7,700 with Nico on the sidelines, but that's what happens when you are the number one guy for C.J. Stroud.
For the Packers, the team seems back in form, with Jordan Love throwing four touchdowns last week in a 34-13 dispatching of the Cardinals. Despite missing two games with injury, Love has still managed 12 touchdowns, good for joint second in the league. Love has shared his touchdown passes around this year, but the most interesting pick for us this week is Tucker Kraft, who is having a breakthrough season as a tight end.
Kraft is a great pick at just $4,600, as he looks to continue his impressive season, having already recorded 3 touchdowns and 231 yards. In goal-line situations, Kraft is a great option for this offense, and we can expect Jordan Love to call his number in this one. Of course, we can’t ignore the Packers' leader in scrimmage yards this year, Josh Jacobs, who’s slotted in perfectly in Green Bay.
This could easily be a day for offense, and there are plenty of weapons to choose from in this one.
Recommended stacks to build around:
- Stroud + Diggs + Dell + Kraft + Jacobs
- Love + Kraft + Jacobs + Diggs + Dell
Individual Plays:
HOU:
- T. Dell
- S. Diggs
- J. Mixon
GB:
- J. Reed
- R. Doubs
- T. Kraft
- J. Jacobs
Game 4: Panthers @ Commanders
- Time: 9:05pm ET
- Spread: Commanders -7.5
- AI Gridiron projected total: 51.5 points
Despite falling to a loss in Baltimore last week, Jayden Daniels and his Commanders continued to impress, with Washington sitting at 4-2 thanks largely to the league’s 2nd-best scoring offense. This team has been the breakthrough story of the season so far, and we see no reason why this won’t continue against arguably the league’s worst team—the Carolina Panthers.
Daniels is expected to continue his brilliant form against Carolina, and his 20-point projection is ranked 4th in the league among QBs for good reason. Daniels is not only throwing for 234 yards a game, but his 322 rushing yards rank second among quarterbacks, only behind Lamar Jackson. Daniels is one of the safest picks in the league this week as we expect him to heap more misery on the Panthers.
Another extremely safe pick is third-year running back Brian Robinson Jr., who leads the team in scrimmage yards and touchdowns so far. Robinson is a true dual-threat running back, who we expect to see involved in the receiving game too, and at 16.01% projected ownership, missing out on him could see you trailing those who do.
At receiver, Terry McLaurin remains the most obvious pick, as he looks on course for a sixth straight 1,000-yard season in DC. $6,800 is not exactly cheap, but McLaurin has clearly got a great connection with Daniels, and the Commanders should rack up points this week. Our Gridiron AI models suggest a median point projection of 14.4.
Speaking of the Panthers, we do recommend running back Chuba Hubbard, who has had an impressive year considering the team around him. Hubbard is averaging almost 100 scrimmage yards a game, and we can expect him to be called upon in this one plenty, as the team’s only real backfield threat.
Also, look out for Diontae Johnson, the team’s wide receiver 1. Johnson has a projected score of 15.4 this week, and if they fall behind early, he’ll be their only real path back into this one. Washington have given up the third most fantasy points to wide receivers this year, making him worth a look.
Recommended stacks to build around:
- Daniels + Robinson + McLaurin + Hubbard + Johnson
Individual Plays:
WAS:
- T. McLaurin
- B. Robinson Jr.
- Z. Ertz
- A. Ekeler
CAR:
- C. Hubbard
- D. Johnson
Game 5: Lions @ Vikings
- Time: 1:00pm ET
- Spread: Vikings -2.5
- AI Gridiron projected total: 50 points
Finally, we’ll look at a fascinating clash from the league’s best division this year, the NFC North. The Minnesota Vikings are shock leaders of the NFC this year and enjoy a 5-0 record following a Week 6 bye. The Lions, on the other hand, spent last week absolutely dismantling the Dallas Cowboys 47-9, underlining their status as one of pro football’s elite teams.
The Lions are averaging over 30 points a game as the league’s number-one scoring offense, with last week’s performance in Dallas being the very best yet, with 492 yards of total offense. This Lions offense is an absolute juggernaut right now, quarterbacked by Jared Goff, one of the league’s top signal-callers.
Despite this, Goff is going slightly under-selected this week, with just 3.5% projected ownership, despite his projection of 18.3 points. One man who isn’t under-selected though, is superstar receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is projected to be the top receiver in football this week, with a total of 19.6 points. Again, St. Brown is expensive at $8,300, but he’s hard to turn down at any price.
Of course, Detroit has plenty of other options to choose from, most notably the superb running back duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, who have combined for nearly 700 yards and 9 touchdowns and will be out for more of the same in Minnesota this week.
For the hosts, we will see if Sam Darnold can bounce back from his first shaky performance of the season in Week 5’s victory in London over the Jets. This could be a decent opportunity to rebound, as while the Lions' offense is exceptional, their defense ranks 27th in passing yards allowed, good news for Darnold and, of course, Justin Jefferson.
Jefferson, like St. Brown, is as obvious a pick as they come, and at 17.11% ownership, you could be missing out if you don’t pick him this week. Jefferson is 4th in the league in yards per game, and he is a threat to go off at any time, as we all know.
Elsewhere for Minnesota, Aaron Jones could be a good pickup with just 1.98% of players projected to have him this week. Jones is averaging 104 scrimmage yards a game and is still a key part of this offense, even in his age-30 season. He looks like a solid option here at $6,500.
Recommended stacks to build around:
- Goff + St. Brown + Gibbs + Montgomery + Jefferson
- Darnold + Jefferson + Jones + St. Brown + Gibbs
Individual Plays:
DET:
- A. St. Brown
- J. Gibbs
- D. Montgomery
- S. LaPorta
MIN:
- J. Jefferson
- A. Jones
- TJ Hockenson