Week five was arguably the best of this NFL season yet, as both the Ravens-Bengals and Buccaneers-Falcons games in particular would feature as two of the best games of any season.
There were also notable upset wins for the Giants and Cardinals, both conquering seven-point spreads and proving, as always, that you never know what will happen on any given Sunday. Also, the Jags won their first game of the year at home to the Colts, meaning that just five weeks in, there are no winless teams remaining.
With four teams on their bye week, there are fourteen games on the slate this weekend, and again, we’ve selected five to preview for Daily Fantasy this week, beginning with a doozy between two of the best rushing quarterbacks in the NFL.
Game 1: Commanders @ Ravens
- Time: 1:00pm ET
- Spread: Ravens -6.5
- AI Gridiron projected total: 52.5 points
The hottest and most exciting team in the NFL heads to Baltimore this week to take on the reigning MVP and the Ravens. Lamar Jackson has been on fire this season, but so has Jayden Daniels, who plays in a very similar way. Expect lots of rushing from these quarterbacks, and lots of points, with our models projecting the line at 52.5. You can tell that this is a good matchup to target, because our models have Lamar and Jayden as our top two scoring projections at quarterback this week.
There are good stacks on both sides of the ball in this one, but I will start with the Ravens. Lamar Jackson hasn't put a foot wrong so far this year, and this is another great matchup. We know how dangerous he can be with his legs, but this is also a fantastic matchup for his arm, with Washington having conceded a league-leading 10 passing touchdowns already this year. That means I am a big fan of Zay Flowers, who is a good price at $6,500 and is given a median points projection of 15.6 by our models.
I will be staying away from the Ravens' tight ends, but feel free to load up on Derrick Henry, who is awarded the fourth highest points projection amongst running backs by our models, with 17.
For the Commanders, Jayden Daniels is a joy to watch, and his deep connection with Terry McLaurin is really coming along nicely. This connection should hit this week, with the Baltimore Ravens giving up the second-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position this year, and the second-most passing yardage at 280 per game. At just $6,400 and with a projection of 16.6 points, McLaurin finds his way into the Gridiron AI Optimal Main Slate Lineup, and should probably be in your team as well.
Brian Robinson Junior is the last name to consider. The Commanders’ running back has been brilliant this year, but he is questionable with an injury at the moment. If he takes to the field, our models like him, giving him a median points projection of 13.4, and a projected ownership of under 2%.
Recommended stacks to build around
- Jackson + Henry + Flowers + McLaurin
- Daniels + Robinson Jr. + McLaurin + Flowers
Individual Plays
BAL
D. Henry
Z. Flowers
WAS
B. Robinson Jr.
T. McLaurin
Game 2: Lions @ Cowboys
- Time: 4:25pm ET
- Spread: Lions -3
- AI Gridiron projected total: 52.5 points
Speaking of offensive slugfests, our second game is absolutely primed to be another one of those. The 3-1 Lions travel to Dallas on Sunday evening, looking to get revenge on the Cowboys after last year’s controversial Week 17 loss at AT&T Stadium. At the start of this season, the Lions set out to go one better than last year’s NFC Championship game appearance, and so far they look more than capable of doing just that.
The team is rested as well, coming off a Week Five bye straight after dismantling the Seattle Seahawks on Monday night in Week 4. In that one, Jared Goff set NFL history, going 18/18 in pass attempts and throwing 2 touchdowns. Goff is one of the league’s better QBs right now, and is a good price at $6,400, but our models project him to get just 7.1 points this weekend. Perhaps a run-heavy approach is on the cards for Detroit?
This Lions offense has so many weapons that it can be hard to narrow down the best options on any given Sunday. Even in a very run-heavy game plan, Amon-Ra St. Brown remains a dangerous option, but with Dallas being a bottom-10 run defense, I would leave him out, especially considering his $8,100 price tag. Our models predict him to get under 10 points this week.
This game is going to be more about the running backs, and David Montgomery is under-selected this week with just 1.59% of players projected to pick him, despite his 365 scrimmage yards, which just pips his running back partner Jahmyr Gibbs on the year. Although, of course, Gibbs is a solid pick himself.
For Dallas, this offense hasn’t quite been firing this year, but CeeDee Lamb has. He ranks in the top ten in the league in receiving yards and is a constant big-play threat. Our models love him this week, giving him the third-highest projection amongst receivers with 18.2. His quarterback Dak Prescott has also been productive, ranking 2nd in the league in passing yards, but still ranks as only the 8th-most expensive QB this week. Building a stack around the Dallas passing attack and Detroit run attack sounds like a sensible move to me.
That extends to tight end Jake Ferguson, who is our highest-rated tight end this week. This one should be high-scoring, and without Brandin Cooks, Dak should look to Ferguson and Lamb to move the ball.
Recommended stacks to build around
- Prescott + Lamb + Montgomery + Gibbs + Ferguson
Individual Plays
DET
A. St. Brown
D. Montgomery
J. Gibbs
S. LaPorta
DAL
C. Lamb
R. Dowdle
J. Tolbert
Game 3: Texans @ Patriots
- Time: 1:00pm ET
- Spread: Texans -7
- AI Gridiron projected total: 38 points
Next up for us is a game projected to be somewhat uncompetitive, as the 4-1 Texans look to keep rolling on the road against a New England team who have lost four straight, and look like their season might well be over already. Houston are comfortable favorites for this one, and with CJ Stroud putting up 676 yards in the last 2 weeks, he’s the biggest reason why.
Stroud is coming off a phenomenal rookie season, and after some shaky early moments this year, he’s started to look more like the Stroud of last season. Last week, he lit up the Bills D for 331 yards in another strong showing, and even though Nico Collins is now on IR, he’s still got plenty of options in this one.
Collins’ absence should mean that Stefon Diggs is involved even more than the 315 yards he’s put up so far this season. Diggs now looks set to be the clear wide receiver 1 that he’s been for most of his pro career in Minnesota and Buffalo, and he’s a smart pick here at $7,400. Our models give him a median projection of 14.4 points, which is a solid starting point with some considerable upside beyond that.
On the ground, Houston will probably still be without Joe Mixon, meaning more opportunity for Dare Ogunbowale. Ogunbowale had six receptions on Sunday and could be a threat in both the passing and rushing game here, especially if Houston gains an early lead. At just $4,800 and 1.15% ownership, he’s a sneaky good value pick here that could give you an edge over the field.
As for New England, this is looking like a pro debut for rookie Drake Maye, who has the thankless task of taking over pro football’s 2nd-worst offense. This O-Line is probably the league’s worst, and this has all the makings of a great day for this Houston defense, who can expect plenty of sacks and maybe some turnovers against a rookie quarterback. They have to be the standout defense and special team pick this week.
As poor as the passing offense has been, the Patriots rushing attack ranks 8th in yardage, led by Rhamondre Stevenson. If the Pats are going to get anything going here, it will probably be through him, and he might be worth a look at $6,100. In a negative game script, he should still remain involved through the passing game. Our models give him a median projection of 9.9 points, but a lot of usage in the passing game could see him improve upon that.
Recommended stacks to build around
- Stroud + Diggs + Ogunbowale + Texans D/ST + Stevenson
Individual Plays
HOU
S. Diggs
T. Dell
D. Ogunbowale
Houston D/ST
NE
R. Stevenson
D. Douglas
Game 4: Cardinals @ Packers
- Time: 1:00pm ET
- Spread: Packers -5
- AI Gridiron projected total: 49.5
Jordan Love is our third-highest projected scoring quarterback this week with 20.7, and he is not a bad price at $6,600. He is likely to be heavily owned, but that’s understandable given this is such a stellar matchup for him. The Cardinals are a bottom-10 defense when it comes to points and yards conceded, and Love has a fantastic array of pass catchers.
Jayden Reed is a good place to start, considering he is our highest projected wide receiver, with 19.4 points. Again, he is projected to be highly owned at 23.77%, but it’s worth considering him for at least one of your lineups as the chances of him popping off are very high. You could lose a lot of ground on the field if he does. Reed is included in the Gridiron AI Optimal Main Slate Lineup, which can be found on our website.
With so many mouths to feed in Green Bay, our models don't particularly like any of the other wide receivers, but Tucker Kraft is definitely an option at tight end, costing just $4,800 and under 2% ownership.
For Arizona, Marvin Harrison Junior remains a good option, even though it is clear that he and Kyler Murray are still getting used to each other. Nevertheless, he is the guy that Kyler goes to on big plays, and he already has 4 touchdowns on the season.
Trey McBride is our fourth-highest projected tight end this week with 10.3, which makes him a good bet in what should be a high-scoring affair, and the ever-reliable James Conner should also be in consideration at $6,800, with a 3% ownership projection.
Recommended stacks to build around
- Love + Jacobs + Reed + Harrison Jr + Kraft
- Murray + Harrison + Reed + McBride
Individual Plays
GB
J. Jacobs
J. Reed
T. Kraft
ARI
J. Conner
M. Harrison Jr.
T. McBride
Game 5: Buccaneers @ Saints
- Time: 1:00pm ET
- Spread: Buccaneers -3.5
- AI Gridiron projected total: 41.5 points
After an exhilarating first two weeks, things have come crashing down to earth for the New Orleans Saints, with last Monday’s loss in Kansas City being their third in a row. Dennis Allen’s men now sit at 2-3, going into a huge divisional matchup against Tampa Bay in the Superdome this Sunday afternoon.
Things went from bad to worse for New Orleans during the week, with the announcement that Derek Carr would be out with an oblique injury, leading to a first pro start for Spencer Rattler, drafted this year out of South Carolina in the 5th round. Some have high hopes for Rattler, but with a rookie quarterback starting, it’s likely that the team could be reliant on the running game in this one.
This makes Alvin Kamara an even better pick than usual. Kamara was quiet against KC, but he’s been one of the best tailbacks in football this year with 602 scrimmage yards and six touchdowns to his name. Kamara’s 114 touches lead the entire league, highlighting just how important he is to this offense, and expect Rattler to involve him in the passing game as well on Sunday. He is pricey, at $7,700, but our models give him the second-highest projection amongst running backs this week, at 20.2 points.
With a quarterback with Rattler’s arm strength, this could also be a day for Rashid Shaheed, one of the league’s very fastest players. Shaheed has had three 40+ yard touchdowns this year, and he can strike at any time, especially against a defense that ranks 28th in passing defense. He is a good price at just $5,600 and is projected to get 13.3 points by our models.
For Tampa, this offense has looked good this year as the Baker Mayfield career resurgence continues in his second year in Florida. Baker has been even better this year, and was unfortunate to come out on the wrong side of a shootout in Atlanta last Thursday in which he threw three touchdowns.
Two of those were caught by the ageless Mike Evans, who is still terrorizing defenses in his 11th season as a pro. Evans is still the team’s wide receiver 1 and is still flanked by Chris Godwin, who is also having a great year in Mayfield’s offense, with 386 yards and 3 touchdowns so far. Godwin comes in as the cheaper option, at $6,900, and our models project him to outscore Evans by 17 points to 15.1, so he seems like the sensible option for your team.
On the ground, rookie Bucky Irving has been quietly impressive, with 247 yards, and averaging 5.6 yards per carry so far this year. He’s projected to be on only 1.95% of teams right now, and at $5,400, that might be a good price given Tampa Bay should expect to play with a lead against a rookie quarterback-led Saints team.
Recommended stacks to build around
- Mayfield + Evans + Godwin + Kamara
Individual Plays
NO
A. Kamara
R. Shaheed
C. Olave
TB
M. Evans
C. Godwin
B. Irving
R. White