This weekend sees week four of the NFL season, which is already looking make-or-break for several teams. The Bengals, Jaguars and Titans all sit at 0-3, and will be absolutely desperate to get in the win column as their playoff hopes are already fading away.
Elsewhere in the league, week 3 saw surprising losses for the 49ers and Buccaneers as well as the previously unstoppable Saints offense being held to just 12 points in a loss against Philadelphia, in what’s already proving to be an unpredictable season.
Here, we look at five matchups this weekend, and give you some recommended picks for daily fantasy this weekend, as we try to make sense of it all.
Game 1: Jaguars @ Texans
- Time: 1:00pm ET
- Spread: Texans -6
- AI Gridiron projected total: 45.5 points
Last Monday night in Buffalo, the Jacksonville Jaguars suffered a brutal 47-10 loss at the hands of the Bills, dropping them to 0-3 on the season. The Jags have been one of the most disappointing teams in the league so far, and this is not an easy bounce back game, a trip to Houston for a divisional matchup against the Texans.
Admittedly, the Texans suffered a rough loss of their own in week 3 – on the road in Minnesota – but CJ Stroud and his team look much better equipped to bounce back in this one. Stroud hasn’t hit the heights of his brilliant rookie season yet, but this is a good chance for him to get back on track at home.
Stroud’s two games against the Jags last season saw him throw for nearly 600 yards and four touchdowns across both meetings. And this Jags defense looks even worse than last year, ranking 5th last in the league in scoring through the first three games. Expect Stroud to be back to his best here, helped by Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs.
Collins currently leads the league in receiving yards with 338, and has been Stroud’s favourite target so far this year. He also scored a TD in the home game against Jacksonville last year, and will be hoping to repeat this on Sunday. As for Diggs, he nearly cracked 100 yards last week in Minnesota, and is starting to adapt to this offense following his arrival this offseason.
With Joe Mixon possibly out for this one, the Texans' focus will likely be on the pass, so picking up Diggs (currently owned by just 6.37% of users) could be a smart play here. And if the Jags offense continues to be as bad as they’ve been, look at the Texans D here, who look well placed to add to Trevor Lawrence’s recent woes here.
Recommended stacks to build around
- Stroud + Collins + Diggs + Texans D/ST
Individual Plays
- HOU: N. Collins, S. Diggs, K. Fairbairn, Texans D/ST
- JAX: T. Etienne, B. Thomas Jr., G. Davis
Game 2: Chiefs @ Chargers
- Time: 4:25pm ET
- Spread: Chiefs -8
- AI Gridiron projected total: 39.5 points
The Kansas City Chiefs are eight-point favorites on the road against the Chargers this Sunday, despite the home team’s fairly impressive start to the year. And whilst the Chiefs are obviously one of the league’s very best sides, this eight-point spread is largely due to some major injury doubts that Jim Harbaugh’s men have going into this one.
On the defensive side, LA looks to be without star linebacker Joey Bosa due to a hip injury, and will also be without the suspended Derwin James at safety. All of this is a good recipe for Patrick Mahomes to have an even better game than usual against the Chargers. Mahomes is 8-2 in his career against them, and averages 281 yards and 2.5 touchdowns a game against them.
Mahomes is obviously an expensive pick at $7,100 but he’s a safe one here. Look out for Xavier Worthy here as a cheaper option that many are ignoring with just 2.6% projected to have him this week. And with Isiah Pacheco out, this could be a good time to pick up Carson Steele, expected to keep getting touches after his 74-yard game against Atlanta last week.
Also vital to this game could be the absence of star QB Justin Herbert and rookie tackle Joe Alt for the Chargers. Herbert is doubtful for this one, and even if he does play, he’s unlikely to be at his best. This makes Sunday a prime opportunity for the KC defense, one of the league’s best units last season. Expect plenty of sacks and turnovers at SoFi Stadium this Sunday, as the Chiefs continue their recent dominance in this rivalry.
Recommended stacks to build around
- Mahomes + Worthy + Steele + Chiefs D/ST
Individual Plays
- KC: X. Worthy, R. Rice, J. Steele, T. Kelce, Chiefs D/ST
- LAC: J. K. Dobbins, Q. Johnston, L. McConkey
Game 3: Commanders @ Cardinals
- Time: 4:05pm ET
- Spread: Cardinals -3.5
- AI Gridiron projected total: 50.5 points
Few would have predicted that Commanders-Cardinals would be the most exciting matchup of week four at the start of the season, but the way that both teams are playing on offense, this one is can’t-miss TV this Sunday. Both teams rank in the top five in scoring this season, and in the bottom half for defense, meaning this one could be a true shootout at State Farm Stadium.
Starting with the visitors, Jayden Daniels looked fantastic on Monday against Cincinnati in just his third career start. Daniels threw for 254 yards and two touchdowns as the Commanders came away with a shock 38-33 road win in that one. Daniels also added a rushing TD, continuing to show his rising value as one of the top dual-threat QBs in football.
This Commanders offense has a few options to choose from, but the star receiver is still Terry McLaurin, who leads the team in receiving yards so far this campaign. McLaurin had 100 yards and a TD against the Bengals, and he’s likely to keep being a safe option for Daniels as he grows into his starting role in DC. At $5,800, he seems a good pick if Daniels continues to go off in the way he has recently.
At RB, we could be seeing a kickstart for Austin Ekeler’s NFL career, following a disappointing final year with the Chargers. Ekeler looks back to being the dual-threat RB he was at his peak, ranking 3rd for receiving yards amongst tailbacks, only behind De’Von Achane and Alvin Kamara. With just 0.65% ownership this week, he’s going overlooked for a potentially big game this week.
On the Arizona side, this should be a return to form for Kyler Murray. Last week against Detroit wasn’t his finest outing, but against this Washington defense, it should be a productive day for him through the air and on the ground. The Commanders rank as the league’s 4th-worst defense and we wouldn’t be shocked to see Murray and co. have a field day here.
Marvin Harrison Jr. has already shown why he went fourth overall in this year’s draft, having scored 3 TDs and put up 194 yards in the last two games. Against this secondary, we’d be surprised if he doesn’t have a big day in this one, as he’s already Kyler’s number one target. Expect a shootout between two dynamic offenses here.
Recommended stacks to build around
- Daniels + McLaurin + Ekeler + Murray + Harrison Jr.
Individual Plays
- WAS: T. McLaurin, A. Ekeler, B. Robinson Jr, Z. Ertz
- ARI: M. Harrison Jr, J. Conner, T. McBride
Game 4: Broncos @ Jets
- Time: 1:00pm ET
- Spread: Jets -7
- AI Gridiron projected total: 38.5 points
Following on from a dominant Thursday night win against the New England Patriots, the New York Jets go into this one at 2-1, looking to keep rolling in week four. Their opponents – the Denver Broncos – picked up a surprise win last week in Tampa Bay, but this could be a tougher test against a seemingly re-born Aaron Rodgers and his Jets offense.
Rodgers looked near his MVP-level best at times against New England, looking much younger than his 40 years of age, as he picked up a 118.9 passer rating en route to a straightforward victory. Crucially, he seems to have already built up chemistry with many of his offensive weapons, as the Jets look to go all-in to get Rodgers a second career ring.
Last week, Tyler Conklin was a surprise number one target, racking up 93 yards on 5 catches against the Pats. It remains to be seen if he can put up numbers like that again, but at just $3,600 and with just 0.61% of players having him, it’s worth a shot to see if he can be Rodgers’ favourite target two weeks in a row.
If he’s not, the more obvious option in the Packers passing game is obviously Garrett Wilson. Wilson became the first-ever first-round pick to catch a TD from Rodgers last week, and he seems to be getting more on the same page as his QB with every week that passes. Wilson put up 1,000 yards last season despite catching passes from Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemian, so with a four-time MVP throwing him the ball now, it seems like a matter of time before he starts putting up those numbers again.
Finally, we have to talk about Breece Hall. Hall is on the expensive side here at $7,800, but this is for good reason. Whether Green Bay attacks Denver through the air or on the ground, Hall is likely to be at the center of it, and is the league’s top receiving back so far. As this Jets offense keeps getting better, look out for all of these guys on Sunday as they look to improve to 3-1.
Recommended stacks to build around
- Rodgers + G. Wilson + Conklin + Hall
Individual Plays
- GB: B. Hall, G. Wilson, A. Lazard, T. Conklin
- DEN: C. Sutton, J. Reynolds, J. Williams
Game 5: Bengals @ Panthers
- Time: 1:00pm ET
- Spread: Bengals -4.5
- AI Gridiron projected total: 48 points
Incredibly, for our final game this week, we’re looking at the offensive capabilities of the Carolina Panthers. With Bryce Young under center, the Panthers looked dreadful on offense, but last week against the Raiders, they turned to veteran QB Andy Dalton and looked like an entirely different prospect on offense. And against this Bengals D, there’s no reason why they can’t have another banner day this week.
Dalton turned the clock back against Las Vegas, putting up 319 yards and three touchdowns, breathing life into the league’s worst offense, and picking up a shock 36-22 victory on the road. Given how good this performance was, Dalton seems undervalued at $5,300 and under-selected at just 1.22%, presumably because many assume he won’t repeat these heroics against Cincinnati.
But considering just how poor the Bengals defense looked against Washington, it’s reasonable to assume that Dalton could do just that. Having just been torched for 38 points by a rookie QB on Monday Night Football, this Bengals D ranks as the league’s 7th-worst unit in scoring, and even the Panthers have to fancy their chances at putting up points here.
Chuba Hubbard has to be the go-to guy here, following his 169-yard performance against Vegas last week. Fifty-five of those yards came through the air, so expect more than a few opportunities from Dalton in the passing game on Sunday, especially given the absence of WR Adam Thielen.
On the Cincinnati side, this is an absolute must-win as the team now sit 0-3 after embarrassing losses to both the Patriots and Commanders. The oddsmakers do expect them to take this one, and as always, they’ll be relying on Joe Burrow to make this happen. Despite the results, Burrow has actually played well this year, with 5 TDs and 746 air yards to his name. And against this shaky Panthers defense, we expect he’ll continue that form here.
The value pick for Cincy here is tight end Mike Gesicki, who is the team’s no. 2 receiver so far this year, only behind Jamarr Chase. Gesicki has been targeted just as much as Chase through three games, and he and Burrow have clearly already built solid chemistry together. Again, this Panthers D is the worst in football by points allowed, so selecting Bengals playmakers is an obvious path this week.
Recommended stacks to build around
- Dalton + Hubbard + Chase + Gesicki
- Burrow + Hubbard + Gesicki + Moss
Individual Plays
- CAR: C. Hubbard, D. Johnson, X. Legette
- CIN: J. Chase, Z. Moss, M. Gesicki, C. Brown