After an intriguing week two filled with upsets, the NFL returns for another week of action on the gridiron. The weekend was marked by several upset wins, with the Raiders and Saints both picking up shock road wins, and the Minnesota Vikings putting away the NFC holders, the 49ers, in Minneapolis.
We also saw a fairly low-scoring weekend on the whole, with only three teams – Buffalo, New Orleans, and Arizona – cracking 30 points. This is partly because several teams have new QBs – including several rookies – still getting up to speed with their new coaches and new systems.
With such a low-scoring start to the season, it has never been more important to find the right matchups for our DFS stacks. In this article, we’ll look at five of the more interesting matchups in week three, and discuss what players might continue the form they’ve shown so far, and which others might get back to their best after sluggish starts. Let's find some points!
Game 1: Eagles @ Saints
Time: 1:00 pm ET
Spread: Saints -2.5
AI Gridiron projected total: 49.5 points
Last week’s game against the Dallas Cowboys was a phenomenal display by this Saints’ offense, and one that has forced everyone in the league to sit up and take notice. Dennis Allen’s men scored a touchdown on all of their first six drives at AT&T Stadium, and they look like a very hard unit to slow down right now.
As a result, they are an obvious pick to build around in week three, beginning with the league’s in-form quarterback Derek Carr. Carr had an up-and-down first season in New Orleans, but he’s been sublime in the first two weeks, with six total touchdowns and the very best passer rating in football at 142.4. Despite all of this, Carr is still fairly cheap at $5,800 this week, making him a solid value as a starter for your team.
Carr will be helped – as always – by Alvin Kamara, who was the best fantasy player in the league last week with his four-TD, 180-yard performance, which reminded everyone just how good he is. We can’t promise another performance quite as good as that, but he absolutely looked like the Kamara of old, and terrorized Dallas all day. Against an unconvincing Philly defense, expect more of the same.
And it’s impossible to talk about the explosiveness of this Saints offense without talking about Rashid Shaheed. Now in his third year in the league, Shaheed has demonstrated that he’s one of the big-play guys in the current NFL, and even if he only picks up two or three catches, expect those to go for big yardage, and touchdowns.
On the Philly side, it’s hard to ignore the career resurgence of Saquon Barkley. Since arriving in free agency during the offseason, Barkley (much like Kamara) looks back to his best, and followed up a three-TD effort against the Packers with a 116-yard performance against Atlanta on Monday Night Football. On this Philly team, he’s the main man so far with 248 scrimmage yards, expect this to continue in week 3.
Finally, for a cheaper option on the Eagles’ offense, consider TE Dallas Goedert. Goedert has been a consistent option for the Eagles for years now, and is a decent red zone threat for Jalen Hurts. At $4,600 he could be a decent option in this one.
Recommended stacks to build around
Carr + Kamara + Shaheed + Barkley + Goedert
Individual Plays
NO
C. Olave
A. Kamara
R. Shaheed
PHI
S. Barkley
A. Brown
D. Smith
D. Goedert
Game 2: Lions @ Cardinals
Time: 4:25 pm ET
Spread: Lions -2.5
AI Gridiron projected total: 52.5
Next up is a fascinating clash in Ford Field this Sunday, which sees the Detroit Lions aiming to rebound from a disappointing loss at home to Tampa Bay in week 2. The Lions are narrow favorites in this one, but will have to deal with an Arizona Cardinals offense that looked sensational in week one, blowing away the Rams 41-10.
At the forefront of that offense is, of course, Kyler Murray. Murray has divided opinion since entering the league, but there’s no doubt that on his day he’s an explosive quarterback, capable of big plays with both his arm and his legs. That was on full display in that Rams clash, throwing three touchdowns in the first 17 minutes, including a 60-yard bomb to Marvin Harrison Jr. that broke the game wide open.
Murray achieved the rare perfect passer rating last week, and whilst he won’t necessarily do that again, he looked as good as he ever has, and his 266 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 59 rushing yards are absolutely the kind of stats you build a team around.
Crucial to this Murray performance was of course Harrison Jr., who had his breakout game, with 130 yards and 2 TDs, showing that he just needed a week to adapt to this Cardinals offense. Harrison achieved this on just four catches, showing that he can break out for a big play at any time, which is exactly what we’re looking for here.
Another Cardinal to look out for is James Conner, who had an excellent game against LA, with 122 rushing yards and a TD. This game is expected to be a close one, and Conner should play a role in keeping this Cardinals offense going throughout, as well as finishing off drives when called on.
The over/under for this one is 52.5 for a reason, as Detroit are obviously capable of putting up points themselves. This Lions team has a two-headed rushing attack, but I’m slightly leaning towards Jahmyr Gibbs over Montgomery here. Gibbs is a great receiving threat out of the backfield, and a real redzone threat as well. Now in his second year, just watch him go from strength to strength.
Finally, have a look at Sam LaPorta. He’s been quiet so far, but don’t expect that to continue for too long. LaPorta was one of the league’s best receiving tight ends last season with nearly 900 yards and 10 TDs. It’s only a matter of time before he hits his stride and gets back to that level.
Recommended stacks to build around
Murray + Conner + Gibbs + Harrison Jr. + LaPorta
Individual Plays
ARI
M. Harrison Jr.
J. Conner
T. McBride
DET
J. Gibbs
D. Montgomery
A. St. Brown
J. Williams
S. LaPorta
Game 3: Broncos @ Buccaneers
Time: 1:00 pm ET
Spread: Buccaneers -6.5
AI Gridiron projected total: 39.5 points
Coming off an impressive showing in Detroit last week, Tampa goes into this matchup with Denver as strong favorites. The Baker Mayfield era in South Florida has been a qualified success so far, and last week’s win was arguably his most impressive yet since arriving in 2023.
Mayfield wasn’t at his very best last week, but at $6,300 he’s a good value quarterback to stack around. In week one against Washington, Mayfield was outstanding, and back at home against the Broncos, we expect him to put on another offensive clinic.
One man who will be key to that is Chris Godwin, who ranks 2nd in the league in receiving yards so far this season with 200. In back-to-back weeks, Godwin has been pivotal to this offense’s success, racking up a touchdown in each of them. Expect Mayfield to feed him early and often here.
Beyond Godwin, Rachaad White could be a good option, especially if the Bucs take the lead early as many expect them to. There’s every chance that Tampa leans heavily on White in this one to control the game and maintain their lead, so he should get plenty of carries here.
Finally, we fancy the Bucs D/ST to have a good day against Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix. Nix has struggled to adapt to pro football so far, and has thrown 4 picks and no touchdowns in his two starts, with Denver putting up just six points in last week’s loss against Pittsburgh. Nix may well make it as a starter in this league, but I don’t think Sunday will be his breakout game.
Recommended stacks to build around
Mayfield + Godwin + White + Bucs D/ST
Individual Plays
DEN
J. Williams
C. Sutton
BUC
R. White
C. Godwin
M Evans
Bucs D/ST
Game 4: Texans @ Vikings
Time: 1:00 pm ET
Spread: Texans -2.5
AI Gridiron projected total: 46.0 points
One of the big shocks of week two was the Vikings' 23-17 victory over the NFC powerhouse 49ers. In that one, Sam Darnold picked up where he left off in the Giants game in week one, and he might be onto an unlikely career second chance in Minnesota.
Darnold threw for 268 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday afternoon, and I like the look of him to continue playing well against an average Houston defense which was tested heavily in week one against Indianapolis. Of course, part of this is the presence of Justin Jefferson – probably the best receiver in the game.
Jefferson’s highlight play on Sunday was of course his 97-yard TD reception in the 2nd quarter, when he took a tremendous throw from Darnold and left the San Fran secondary scrambling as he sprinted to the endzone. Jefferson is the kind of guy who makes these plays more than almost any other, and he’s an obvious pick to put in any fantasy team – if a bit expensive.
For the Texans, the man to watch is Nico Collins, who has been superb through two weeks, showing that his nearly 1,300-yard campaign in 2023 was no fluke. Collins leads the league in receiving yards through two games and so far seems to have clearly established himself as Stroud’s favorite receiver, well ahead of Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs.
In the run game, Joe Mixon is a nice option for Houston, although he followed up his superb week one in Indy with a lackluster performance against Chicago last Sunday night. Mixon is arguably still underrated in his eighth season in the league, having been a 1,400-yard back last year. He’s definitely worth considering at $6,900 this weekend.
Recommended stacks to build around
Darnold + Jefferson + Collins + Mixon
Individual Plays
MIN
J. Jefferson
A. Jones
HOU
J. Mixon
N. Collins
S. Diggs
T. Dell
Game 5: Dolphins @ Seahawks
Time: 4:05 pm ET
Spread: Seahawks – 4.5
AI Gridiron projected total: 41.5 points
The Miami Dolphins come into this one having suffered the loss of their quarterback Tua Tagovailoa with a concussion. Tua’s long-term future as an NFL QB is obviously up in the air right now, but the Dolphins are going to have to cope without him in the interim period, beginning with a tough trip to Seattle this weekend.
Seattle is notoriously one of the loudest road games in the NFL, and this could prove to be a tough afternoon for Skylar Thompson, who is having to deputize in Tua’s absence. Thompson did play sparingly in the 2022 season following a previous injury to Tua, and he struggled in those ones, throwing one TD and three picks. As good an offensive coach as McDaniel is, I don’t see him getting great production out of Thompson here.
As a result, expect lots of running from Miami, chiefly from De’Von Achane, who had a superb 165 yards from scrimmage last week, including a TD and seven catches. As one of the league’s very fastest players, Achane will most likely give the Seahawks headaches in this one, and expect him to be fed a lot, including several short screen passes as McDaniel tries to give Thompson a chance here.
For Seattle, Geno Smith has shown himself to be a QB you can build around, and he was excellent against New England last week, with 327 yards and a TD. Smith suffered a bit of a regression in his 2023 season, but he was still productive, and so far he looks like a solid, cheaper starting option for fantasy purposes.
His most targeted receiver on Sunday was not DK Metcalf for once, but rather Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who could be poised for a breakout sophomore year, having had his first-ever 100-yard game in that one. Smith-Njigba made 12 receptions at Gillette Stadium and will be looking to follow that up with a similar showing here.
Finally, with the aforementioned quarterback situation that Miami finds themselves in, it’s hard to not be tempted by the Seattle D/ST here. With an experienced quarterback under center for Miami, expect a low-scoring showing from them, and several opportunities for turnovers. I like the Seattle defense to put up a few points in this one.
Recommended stacks to build around
Smith + Smith-Njigba + Achane + Seattle D/ST
Individual Plays
SEA
J. Smith-Njigba
D. Metcalf
Z. Charbonnet
Seahawks D/ST
MIA
D. Achane
T. Hill
J. Waddle
Thanks for reading through this week’s preview, hopefully, we have picked out some fruitful DFS stacks for you to win with. If you would like to gain full access to all of our rankings and predictions, fueled by predictive models and artificial intelligence, then you can get 50% off with the code FF50. Register here: https://gridironai.com/football/info/subscriptions