Welcome to the new NFL season, and welcome to our new weekly DFS column. Winning in this brilliant format of fantasy football comes down to finding your edge on the field, whether that be the high upside, low-owned player, or the perfect team stack to form the backbone of your team. Every single week of the season, this column will share the matches that we think are boasting the most DFS value. We will be looking for the games with higher totals and personnel matchups to exploit, and we will be doing it all with the help of our Gridiron AI predictive models and artificial intelligence.
Over the last couple of years, our rankings have outperformed the likes of ESPN, CBS, and others by an average of 22%, and we fully intend on using that advantage to help you with your DFS lineups via this column. If you want full access to our AI-fuelled DFS projections, fantasy rankings, and betting insights, then you can get 50% off our various packages now, with the code FF50.
Now, let’s get into the action.
The Gridiron AI Optimal Lineup
- QB: A. Richardson | HOU @ IND | 1:00 PM ET | $6,300
- RB: A. Kamara | CAR @ NO | 1:00 PM ET | $6,700
- RB: R. White | WAS @ TB | 4:25 PM ET | $6,300
- WR: J. Chase | NE @ CIN | 1:00 PM ET | $7,800
- WR: D. London | PIT @ ATL | 1:00 PM ET | $6,000
- WR: T. Dell | HOU @ IND | 1:00 PM ET | $5,500
- WR: R. Odunze | TEN @ CHI | 1:00 PM ET | $4,000
- TE: K. Pitts | PIT @ ATL | 1:00 PM ET | $4,600
- DST: HOU | HOU @ IND | 1:00 PM ET | $2,700
Best Games to Target for DFS Value
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- Spread: Houston Texans -3
- AI Gridiron projected total: 48.5 points
How good is this for a Week 1 showdown, pitching the two hottest teams in the AFC South against each other, led by two of the hottest young names at quarterback? It also happens to be my favorite game to target from a stacking perspective.
It’s the Texans' side of this that really catches my eye from a DFS perspective. Their pass attack has been turbocharged over the last year or so, and the Colts' secondary is amongst the worst in the NFL. The easy pick for the stack is to place Stroud into your quarterback slot. The hard pick is figuring out which wide receiver to stack with him. Thankfully, the confusion is reflected in the slightly lower prices for these very talented wideouts.
Nico Collins is the most expensive Texans receiver at $7,000, with Diggs coming in at $6,700 and Tank Dell falling to $5,500. My advice would be to go with either Collins or Dell. Collins is rightfully the most expensive option, offering rare route-running ability for someone of his size, which I think is going to make him the true alpha for the Texans. Across the two games against the Colts last year, Collins had 341 yards and 2 touchdowns, and Indy have done very little to bolster their secondary heading into this season. While Diggs is clearly a talented player and a threat to the target volume available, I think Collins and Dell will be the preferred targets early, not only because of their elite skill, but also because of their familiarity with Stroud. Dell also features in the Gridiron AI optimal lineup, which is another boost for him.
We are also going to want some Colts players in the lineup, in anticipation of this being a back-and-forth affair. Jonathan Taylor is one of the most talented running backs in the NFL, and Michael Pittman Junior proved himself as a top-tier possession receiver last year. Taylor’s projection of 18 points is fourth most among running backs according to our model's predictions, and with Pittman predicted to have an ownership of just 5%, both are great plays.
Of course, if you want to opt for the dual-threat option at quarterback in Anthony Richardson, I won't put you off that either. He is in the Gridiron AI optimal lineup, and I expect this to be high-scoring. It's a great game for a stack.
Recommended stacks to build around:
- Stroud + Taylor + Collins + Pittman
- Stroud + Dell + Collins + Pittman + Schultz
- Richardson + Taylor + Dell + Pittman
Individual Plays:
- Stroud
- Richardson
- Collins
- Dell
- Diggs
- Pittman
- Schultz
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- Spread: Miami Dolphins -3.5
- AI Gridiron projected total: 49 points
Of course, we have to talk about Miami. They led the league in yardage last year and were second to only Dallas from a points-scored perspective. Mike McDaniel is an offensive genius, and the early stages of the season are where he really holds an advantage. These are the games where he can unveil his new creations, without teams having had a chance to plan how to stop them.
Tyreek Hill is the second most expensive wide receiver on the board this weekend, and it’s understandable. He is probably the single most dangerous wide receiver in the league, especially when you consider the offense he is based in and the coordinator he plays for. Our models project him to be 22% owned, which is the second highest for his position. You don't gain much of an edge by picking him, but it might be worth doing it anyway, given our models also project him to put up 21 points, which is the most for his position.
Jaylen Waddle at $6,300 is a cheaper way to get involved in this passing attack, but a projected ownership of 17% on him isn’t exactly low. The benefit of siding with Waddle is that you can then afford to fit De’Von Achane into your lineup, who is only projected to be 9% owned but is forecast to score 16 points according to our models. Add in Tua, and you have a very nice Dolphins stack to hopefully romp home with.
In Jacksonville, I love Brian Thomas Junior, and I think he is a great bargain option at $4,700. It is a risk because he is likely to be a boom-bust player, particularly early on, but I anticipate the Jags having to catch up with a few big plays. Christian Kirk is a great option at $5,500 due to his expected volume and familiarity with Trevor Lawrence, but with so many expensive options in this stack, we will probably have to avoid Travis Etienne and Evan Engram.
Recommended stacks to build around:
- Tua + Achane + Waddle + Thomas Jr.
- Tua + Mostert + Hill + Kirk
Individual Plays:
- Achane
- Mostert
- Etienne
- Hill
- Waddle
- Kirk
- Thomas Jr.
- Engram
Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- Spread: Buffalo Bills -6.5
- AI Gridiron projected total: 48 points
Arizona have opted to be an offense-focused team this year, which is great news for us DFS players. PFF have ranked their secondary dead last in their preseason rankings, and given they have some exciting playmakers on offense, they should produce some of the most entertaining and high-scoring games throughout the year.
Our models project James Cook to be the highest-owned running back this weekend at a whopping 37%. That number is so large that it would be smart to try and at least get a bit of exposure to him, otherwise you’ll be massively on the back foot if he has a big game. Joining him in your lineup I think has to be Dalton Kincaid, who is surely going to gobble up targets now that both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are out the door.
Another big beneficiary of them leaving is Khalil Shakir, who I think is primed for a big year. He was a reliable target for Allen last year, catching 39 of his 45 targets for 611 yards. Allen will likely appreciate the familiarity of Shakir, with both Curtis Samuel and Keon Coleman playing their first games in a Bills uniform. Shakir is projected to be just 5% owned and at $5,100, I think he is a bargain.
On the Arizona side of things, I think Kyler Murray is a great option, as is James Conner, the tough, do-it-all running back who is a great price at just $6,200. Our models have a median projection of 13 points for Conner and just 5% ownership. When you consider that our models project James Cook to only score 2 points more, with 15, maybe Conner is a good contrarian play to gamble against the majority?
Trey McBride is in a smash spot, going up against a Bills defense that sadly lost Matt Milano for the season a few weeks ago. I wouldn't be against doubling up on tight end and starting both McBride and Kincaid here. I would prioritize McBride over Marvin Harrison Junior in this first outing for the rookie wideout.
Recommended stacks to build around:
- Allen + Cook + Shakir + Kincaid + McBride
- Kyler + Conner + Shakir + Kincaid + McBride
Individual Plays:
- Allen
- Kyler
- Cook
- Conner
- Shakir
- Curtis Samuel
- Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Kincaid
- McBride
Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks
- Time: 4:05 PM ET
- Spread: Seattle Seahawks -6
- AI Gridiron projected total: 41.5 points
One of the most exciting coaching changes this year was the arrival of Ryan Grubb in Seattle, ready to introduce a new-look passing offense that was so successful in college. As offensive coordinator for the Washington Huskies, Grubb helped Michael Penix Junior and a talented trio of receivers produce the best passing offense in the nation in 2022 and the second-best in 2023. Well, now in Seattle, he has a talented deep ball passer in Geno Smith and another very talented trio of pass catchers.
Add in the fact that Denver were in the bottom third of the league for passing yards conceded last year, and have since lost several starters in the secondary, and you have a great opportunity for a cheap stack with big upside. Our model projects a median total of 18 fantasy points for Geno, and an ownership percentage of just 3%. I think there is a real chance that this is an offensive explosion in Grubb’s first game, in which case, that low ownership would give us a great edge on the field.
Smith at $5,500, DK Metcalf at $6,200, and Jaxon Smith Njigba at $4,900 are affordable prices as well, which allows us to load up with bigger names throughout the rest of the roster. Kenneth Walker is also a good price, coming in at $6,100 against a Denver defense that gave up the 4th most fantasy points to running backs last year. Our model likes it as well, projecting him 15 points. I also really like Noah Fant as a sleeper tight end this year, and he has a great matchup this week. Denver gave up the most receiving yards and fantasy points to tight ends, so definitely one to keep an eye on.
On the Denver side, I don’t like much. Bo Nix has a tough challenge ahead of him, going up against a Mike MacDonald defense with not a whole lot of offensive talent at his disposal. I think Payton will try to utilize the run game, and I expect plenty of work through the air for both Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin. Either of those as a running back to go up against the Seattle stack sounds good to me!
Recommended stacks to build around:
- Geno + Walker + Williams/McLaughlin + Metcalf + JSN
- Geno + Walker + Williams/McLaughlin + Metcalf + Fant
Individual Plays:
- Walker
- Williams
- McLaughlin
- Metcalf
- Jaxon Smith Njigba
- Lockett
- Fant
Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Time: 4:25 PM ET
- Spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5
- AI Gridiron projected total: 44 points
The final game that stands out to me from a stacking perspective is Washington vs Tampa Bay. I think Baker and company will have a good start to the season against the Commanders' defense, and I'll start this section by agreeing with our predictive model in putting Rachaad White in the optimal lineup. White is in for a better season on the ground this year thanks to the selection of mauling offensive lineman Graham Barton in the 2024 draft, and we know he will get plenty of passing work still. In a game where our model predicts Tampa Bay scoring 23.5 points, you want the running back, and I think White is a great price at $6,300.
Mike Evans is another stud that simply has to be included. The Washington secondary is deprived of talent, and memories of AJ Brown destroying Emmanuel Forbes Junior last year should fill Evans backers with hope. He is Baker’s favorite target, and this is a blow-up spot to open the season for him.
Chris Godwin is another intriguing name now that he has moved back to the slot, where he thrives, and Jalen McMillan is a highly-touted rookie. I won’t be playing them this week, but I will be watching their usage keenly in the hope of seeing some future value.
On the Washington side, I can’t wait to see how Jayden Daniels gets on. The rookie quarterback is a thrilling runner of the ball and has very good deep-ball accuracy. I like Terry McLaurin to get peppered with targets this year, making him a good player to add to this game’s stack. I’ll be keeping the rest of the Commanders players on the bench for now though as we wait to see how this offense shakes out. I wouldn't be against throwing in the Bucs' defense at a cheap price of $3,500. I like Daniels, but this is his rookie debut after all.
Recommended stacks to build around:
- Mayfield + White + Evans + McLaurin + Buccaneers D/ST
Individual Plays:
- White
- Evans
- McLaurin
- Buccaneers D/ST
Thanks for reading through this week’s preview, hopefully, we have picked out some fruitful DFS stacks for you to win with. If you would like to gain full access to all of our rankings and predictions, fueled by predictive models and artificial intelligence, then you can get 50% off with the code FF50. Register here.