Well…top to bottom, last week could’ve gone better, but you can't win them all. This week, meat and potatoes as we look to get right back on track. If these picks are a little too safe for you, dive into our machine-learning tools and find your favorite deep-cut ceiling play for the week. With that said, let’s right this ship and dive into our Week 9 fantasy starts and sits.
Reminder: All numbers in this blog are for PPR leagues. Please use the Gridiron AI menu to set your league’s scoring settings.
Start ‘Em:
Quarterbacks
Sam Darnold (Minnesota Vikings) vs Indianapolis Colts
- Gridiron AI projected points: 15
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 10
Darnold was far from the problem in last Thursday night’s loss to the Rams, and now he gets to face a significantly weaker team in the Colts. It is still jarring how good Darnold has been after a half-decade of near-total irrelevance. A solid 230 passing yards per game to go with 2 passing touchdowns is the kind of consistency that fantasy managers without a franchise QB strive for.
For a quarterback matchup, it’s always good to look at the entirety of both teams, and a Colts team that has benched their 22-year-old QB looks demoralized and more prone to having an off day. They already have a bottom-10 pass defense, are hardly taking the ball away, and while their rush defense has been worse, potentially paving the way for an Aaron Jones-heavy game, Darnold has been the focal point in the Red Zone. If you have any questions at QB this week, Darnold is a solid answer.
Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles) vs Jacksonville Jaguars
- Gridiron AI projected points: 17.9
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 2
Usually, we’re not in the business of using top-10 players on these posts, but Hurts is currently on the upswing and deserves a fair bit of attention after a shaky stretch without a healthy A.J. Brown. Since the Week 5 bye, Hurts has been worth 26.6 points on average, with his best performance of the year coming last week against the Bengals. Now, his goal-line production is spotty because of the specificity of the Brotherly Shove, but his more normal scoring of around 20 points is nothing to turn your nose up at. This week, against a Jacksonville team that has been stingy against the run but gives pass yards away for free, expect Hurts to sling it around a little bit more. Nick Sirianni has been transparent about the Eagles trying to have more fun on the field. The Jaguars, who have given up the most receiving touchdowns in the league, seem like a lot of fun to play, and Gridiron AI is all but guaranteeing 2+ scores through the air for Hurts this week.
Running Backs
De’Von Achane (Miami Dolphins) @ Buffalo Bills
- Gridiron AI projected points: 13.1
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 18
De'Von Achane had a triumphant return alongside Tua last week. With the Dolphins getting back on track, lock Achane back into your lineups. The speedster started the year with back-to-back massive games before averaging less than 8 points per game for the last 5 weeks. Last week, though, classic Achane banged back in with a gorgeous stat line on the ground and through the air.
This week is no sure thing, especially since the Bills own the Tua-era Dolphins, but let’s look at what we do know. In 3 career games against Buffalo, Achane has gotten into the end zone at least once each time, in addition to an average of 115 all-purpose yards. His best performance against them came earlier this season, and the Bills’ defense has only gotten more worn down each week. Our model sees Achane as a lock for one of your RB starting spots, if not better. Look for a projected 13.1 points, with an upside in the high 20s.
J.K. Dobbins (Los Angeles Chargers) @ Cleveland Browns
- Gridiron AI projected points: 15.1
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 10
Dobbins has been right back to form since the Chargers got healthy, struggling against the Cardinals, but still averaging 14.9 points for the last 3 weeks. After 4 receptions and a rushing touchdown last week, Dobbins reminded managers why he was written into starting lineups with a marker early in the season. This week, he gets to see a team that he’s never so much as struggled against in the Browns. In 3 career games against Cleveland, Dobbins has averaged almost 70 yards and a touchdown. This season, he’s with the same offensive coordinator (Greg Roman), who led him to those stats, and arguably a better offensive line.
The Browns have been below average against the run, and they’re worn down after a rough, emotional win over Baltimore. The numbers are fully back in on Dobbins, seeing him as a guaranteed starter on any roster, even with his lack of love in the passing game. Gridiron AI has J.K. as RB10 this week, worth 15.1 points, a solid RB starter any given week.
D’Andre Swift (Chicago Bears) @ Arizona Cardinals
- Gridiron AI projected points: 15.4
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 8
Our model was one of the first to see the climbing value of Swift after a rough first 3 weeks, and he’s been an unsung RB1 since his return to relevance against the Rams. Even with last week’s total lack of productivity from Chicago, Swift got his against the Commanders. In Week 9, the Bears see a Cardinals team whose front 7 has been awful against the run, allowing 140 yards per game and 10 total rushing touchdowns. We challenge any non-Arizona fan to name one of the Cardinals’ healthy defensive linemen. Then tell us who’s going to stop Swift from getting whatever he wants behind a top-10 run-blocking O-line (PFF). Swift has been beautifully productive ever since hitting his stride in Week 4, and our model expects him to keep up with his own trends. He’s slated for 15+ points, bringing him in around RB8, with a high ceiling to tool around with.
Wide Receivers
Courtland Sutton (Denver Broncos) @ Baltimore Ravens
- Gridiron AI projected points: 11.8
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 19
Oh boy, here we go fading the Ravens’ defense again! Even though Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins should be back this week, there is a fundamental scheme problem in Baltimore that a veteran like Sutton should be able to take advantage of. Bo Nix may not be a good start this week because of Baltimore’s pass rush forcing mistakes, but the ball should still be going to Sutton. He leads the Broncos in targets by more than 20 and has been by far their most productive pass-catcher. Look for a couple of big catches and a lot of little ones from Sutton, as he’s a top-20 receiver based on Gridiron AI’s projections.
Drake London (Atlanta Falcons) vs Dallas Cowboys
- Gridiron AI projected points: 14.3
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 7
Drake London has come alive in his first season with Kirk Cousins. He's WR5 in PPR through 8 weeks, worth more than 16 points per game. That includes his weak showings in Weeks 1 and 8, so against a hobbled Dallas defense, it's more than fair to expect an uptick in both usage and counting stats. London has more games with a score this season than without and averages double-digit targets. On pure reception points, London is worth starting, but his YAC ability and connection with Kirk should make him a serious threat against a Dallas unit that is dead-mid against the pass. Their split of touchdowns allowed is right down the middle, meaning it's just as likely that London will score versus Bijan. Dallas is also allowing the most yards per catch in football, which bodes well for an all-over threat like Drake. Our model sees him as WR7 this week, with one of the highest ceilings in football.
Jakobi Meyers (Las Vegas Raiders) @ Cincinnati Bengals
- Gridiron AI projected points: 12.7
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 13
Jakobi Meyers immediately profited from the Davante trade after returning from injury. Fifty-two yards and a touchdown on 6 catches was good for being a top-15 receiver last week, and although we can't count on that every week, he's still going to be the Raiders’ top option alongside Brock Bowers. The Bengals' defense has been weak all year, bottom-10 in receiving yards allowed and generally underwhelming in coverage. They’ve allowed 12 passing touchdowns, good for bottom 10 in the league as well. Bowers is Vegas’ leading receiver, but with Meyers healthy and taking an increased role post-Adams, expect an upgrade in value, consistent with last week’s production. Our model projects Meyers as a top-15 receiver again this week, playing off his average of 5 receptions and 55 yards per game, plus his red zone usage. Gardner Minshew has always fed his best receivers in lieu of spreading the ball around too much, and Meyers looks to be the latest beneficiary.
Tight Ends
Evan Engram (Jacksonville Jaguars) @ Philadelphia Eagles
- Gridiron AI projected points: 11.3
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 5
Every other Jacksonville pass catcher is gone. That’s the long and short of it. Christian Kirk is out for the year, Brian Thomas Jr. is potentially down for a few weeks, and Gabe Davis might be back in time for Sunday, but not at 100%. That leaves Engram and Parker Washington to do the heavy lifting for Trevor Lawrence, and while Washington is good, Engram has greatness in him. After missing the first chunk of the season with injury, Engram came storming back in Week 6 and was formidable against the Packers last week. He only had 5 targets in each of his last two games, but it’s fair to expect closer to 10 in the next few weeks. On top of that, the Jaguars just traded their starting Left Tackle, so Trevor will be getting the ball out fast, more often than not to his tight end. Against a Philadelphia defense that has been underrated in terms of eliminating a team’s best wideout, Engram’s value is even higher, and our model sees him as TE5, good for 11.3 points with a 20-point upside.
Kyle Pitts (Atlanta Falcons) vs Dallas Cowboys
- Gridiron AI projected points: 9.3
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 12
Kyle Pitts is back? Drake London got some love today too, but Pitts is the one coming off a career-defining game. After years of wishy-washy production and inconsistent QB play, Pitts is averaging 14.4 yards per catch, 52 yards per game, and has found the end zone 3 times. He gets to see a Cowboys team that is bottom-5 in coverage (PFF) and just gave George Kittle a very happy National Tight Ends Day, with 6 catches for 128 and a score. They’ve given up multiple similar games to good tight ends, especially big plays allowed by their shallow linebacking corps. Pitts and this stacked Atlanta offense is primed to take advantage, and look for them to target Pitts early and often. Darnell Mooney has stolen a lot of touches from both London and Pitts this season, but the scales have righted themselves every time. Our model has Pitts outside the top-10 tight ends this week, projected at just 9.3 points, but in a week when he faces such a weak defense and a solid matchup, his 16.5-point ceiling—just 0.3 higher than his average over the last 3 games—looks well within reach.
Sit ‘Em
Quarterbacks
Jameis Winston (Cleveland Browns) vs Los Angeles Chargers
- Gridiron AI projected points: 11.3
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 27
Never get fooled by a good performance against a divisional rival: Jameis is still Jameis. Faced with a Chargers defense that is top-10 in everything and only getting better, expect massive regression. In his last 3 games as a starting QB, Jameis has averaged 10 points, and that’s including his solid total from last week. The Browns’ O-Line held firm against the Ravens’ pass rush, but the Chargers are 9th in passing defense with just a 13.6% pressure rate. That means they bully receivers while their offense eats clock, which seems more than likely to continue this week. With Cedrick Tillman and Jerry Jeudy as his primary weapons, Winston simply won’t have enough opportunities to show out.
Jared Goff (Detroit Lions) @ Green Bay Packers
- Gridiron AI projected points: 13.6
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 16
This is our biggest swing of the week, but the numbers support it. The Lions have been pure electricity on offense all year, and Jared Goff might be the league’s best MVP candidate after the Ravens went down last week. The catch? Goff’s fantasy value is extremely fluctuating thanks to the dominant Detroit rushing attack. Since DaMo and Gibbs are both threats to peel off a giant run at any given point, Goff hasn’t been making a ton of mistakes, but that’s because he doesn’t always have to sling it a bunch. Against the Packers, who have a good-not-great defense, expect the game plan to stay the same UNLESS it becomes a shootout. If that happens, it’s possible that Goff’s interceptions come out to play again. Our model may not have emotion, but it certainly knows the variables that come with every divisional rivalry game. Against the Packers, Gridiron AI sees Goff as a low-ceiling play, worth only around 14 points, with most QBs having a similar floor but much higher potential value.
Running Backs
Chase Brown (Cincinnati Bengals) vs Las Vegas Raiders
- Gridiron AI projected points: 11.5
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 26
It might be time to officially lock in that the Bengals aren’t that good. It also may be time to say that Joe Mixon was much more valuable than most fans thought when he was traded to Houston. While Chase Brown has been better than Zach Moss, the Cincinnati run game has struggled mightily and now sees a Vegas team that incentivizes attacking through the air. The Raiders are fielding the 6th best run defense according to PFF and have been solid defensively all around. Cincinnati, on the other hand, has one of the worst run-blocking lines in the league, and while their pass-blocking isn’t much better, they have Joe Burrow under center, who is always going to prefer going to Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, or a tight end over a checkdown. Add to this that Brown is still splitting touches with Moss, and even the more productive back shouldn’t expect a big day against the Raiders.
Travis Etienne Jr./Tank Bigsby (Jacksonville Jaguars) @ Philadelphia Eagles
- Gridiron AI projected points: 6.8/6.1
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 31/33
Etienne Jr. is getting healthy, but Bigsby has been very good in his absence. Whoever is the starter going forward, Philly is not a team you want to start a mediocre running back against. With all of Jacksonville’s receivers lost to injury, it isn’t unfair to expect a heavier emphasis on the run game this week. That said, three factors keep both Jags rushers from being viable plays according to our model.
First, the Eagles have allowed the 6th fewest rushing yards in the league and only given up 4 rushing touchdowns. That compounds with the second factor, the Jaguars trading away left tackle Cam Robinson. A reworked O-line is not good for rushing, just as it’s probably going to be bad for Trevor’s health. Finally, the Eagles are probably going to run up the score against Jacksonville, forcing the Jags to pass early and often. It’s hard to score fantasy points if you don’t touch the ball, and neither Etienne Jr. nor Bigsby are downfield threats. Sell high on Bigsby while you can, or at least give both Jags backs the week off.
Wide Receivers
Reminder: Jameson Williams of the Lions is suspended for the next two weeks, so remember to take him out of your lineups. He doesn’t count as a “sit,” but you can have that one for free.
Diontae Johnson (Carolina Panthers) @ Denver Broncos
- Gridiron AI projected points: 10
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 33
The Panthers aren’t very good. Hot take, we know. Diontae Johnson was a bright spot for the offense, alongside Chuba Hubbard, but even a 30-target lead over the next most popular pass-catcher couldn’t make Johnson a productive player after the Dalton shock factor wore off. Rookie tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders out-caught Johnson in their loss to the Commanders, and our model doesn’t see any reason for the former Steeler to bounce back against the Denver Broncos this week.
Denver is allowing just 170 passing yards and less than one receiving touchdown per game. And that’s been against the Seahawks, Buccaneers, and Saints, not the Carolina Panthers. Expect Andy Dalton to be benched for the return of Bryce Young at some point this game as the offense completely stalls out, leaving veterans like Johnson holding the bag.
Khalil Shakir (Buffalo Bills) @ Seattle Seahawks
- Gridiron AI projected points: 9.5
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 38
To make a long story short, Amari Cooper is already the Bills’ top receiver, and it’s been a week. Keon Coleman also had a nice day against the Titans last week, leading the team in targets, but Cooper got the touchdown pass. Between Coleman, Cooper, and an emerging Dalton Kincaid, Shakir is back to being the odd man out. He could return to his surprise deep-shot days and is still a good contributor in actual football, but in the fantasy world, he’s now too much of a question mark. Without any indicator that he’ll have real value going forward, Gridiron AI has Shakir as a declining WR38 this week, worth a flexable 9.5 points, but don’t be surprised if he undershoots that by 5+.
Tight Ends
Tyler Conklin (New York Jets) @ New England Patriots
- Gridiron AI projected points: 7.3
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 20
There’s been a lot of discourse surrounding how much Garrett Wilson’s production in New York will suffer thanks to the Davante Adams acquisition. What the numbers show is that Wilson will be fine, but Tyler Conklin might drop off the map. Conklin found the end zone for the first time this season last week, but he only actually had 7 yards to show for his 4 catches. And his 4 targets were one of his lowest totals on the season. Similar to Khalil Shakir before, Conklin looks like the redheaded stepchild in an offense with too many mouths to feed. Breece Hall and Braelon Allen will both get their touches, and Wilson and Adams are too good to ignore.
The Patriots' defense hasn’t been nearly as good as their units of the past, but only 2 tight ends have gained more than 50 yards against them this season. The Jets already look like a broken team, and projected as TE20 this weekend, Conklin looks like the newest victim of his franchise’s decisions.
Good luck in your fantasy matchups this week, and I look forward to seeing you back here at the same time next week, for more starts and sits. If you would like to gain full access to all of our rankings and predictions, fueled by predictive models and artificial intelligence, then you can get 50% off with the code FF50. Register here: https://gridironai.com/football/info/subscriptions