One more week of NFL action in the books means even more data pouring into our Gridiron AI algorithm, and our results have gotten better and better. In Week 7, our Sits were especially hot, with 5 of our 8 scoring less than 10 points on the week. Our data remains dead-on when it comes to reading quarterbacks, and the accuracy for receivers and running backs keeps climbing, with the difference between our projections and the final lines coming eerily close at times. So, with Halloween right around the corner, let’s dive into our Week 8 Starts and Sits.
Reminder: All numbers in this blog are for PPR leagues. Please use the Gridiron AI menu to set your league’s scoring settings.
Start ‘Em:
Quarterbacks
Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Gridiron AI projected points: 15.8
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 3
Even though he’s been turning the ball over enough to draw Brett Favre comparisons, Love’s stats have been incredible, good for 270 yards and 3 touchdowns per game. That’s good for the most production per game among quarterbacks, and it wipes out the negative points from his picks. This week, Love and the Packers get to face the 2nd worst passing defense in that of the Jaguars, meaning lots of counting stats, win or lose.
As always, it’s impossible to say which of Love’s weapons will be the one to pop this week, but no matter who is open, he’ll more than likely find them. Add to that the Jaguars having the fewest interceptions in football, and even the downside seems tiny.
Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears) @ Washington Commanders
Gridiron AI projected points: 15.4
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 9
The first appearance of Chicago’s savior on one of these lists this season. Caleb has a great matchup this week in what should’ve been a top-5 game of the year. With Jayden Daniels likely out, this game is downgraded to a potential beatdown by a great Bears defense against a hobbled Commanders one. The Bears stand to dominate time of possession, and while that might mean a solid day for a back like D’Andre Swift, the more likely outcome is that Caleb carves up a Washington D that hasn’t been getting good pressure. With time, Williams has been a surgeon.
Caleb is Gridiron AI’s QB9 this week, and that’s while the algorithm thinks it’s possible for Daniels to play. If he’s out, the Bears’ ceiling climbs from around the Commanders’ average of 22 points allowed per game to 30+ and a dominant day from Williams. Caleb has averaged 23.6 fantasy points over the past 3 weeks, and while his base projection is only 15.4, his ceiling is 28.3, which wins almost any matchup.
Running Backs
James Conner (Arizona Cardinals) @ Miami Dolphins
Gridiron AI projected points: 14.9
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 8
2024 has been the year of the running back, with tons of bounce-back seasons, headlined by Conner. The Cardinals’ lead back is 6th in rushing yards in the league and has been the focal point of the Arizona offense. In Week 8, he visits Miami and their middle-of-the-road run defense. The Dolphins are tied for 3rd worst in rushing touchdowns allowed, and their pass defense has been sturdy, so with any luck, the Cardinals will focus on their ground game and feed Conner.
Thanks to his 18 touches per game and the matchup, our model sees Conner as a high-floor, high-ceiling play this week, settled in at RB8. And while his projection is a respectable 14.9 points, his ceiling is set at 26.4 points. That positive range is the recipe for fantasy RB1 any given week.
Kenneth Walker III (Seattle Seahawks) vs Buffalo Bills
Gridiron AI projected points: 14.7
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 10
Ken Walker has been an up-and-down player in terms of fantasy his whole career, but last week inspired a lot of faith. In his last 3 starts, Walker has averaged 19.6 points, RB9 in that stretch. He’s been the most consistent part of the Seahawks’ offense, similar to Conner in Arizona. He doesn’t touch the ball as much in Ryan Grubb’s pass-heavy attack, but he’s been very efficient, going for 4.7 yards per carry and 60 yards per game, adding 3 receptions for 30 yards every week. A lock for ~100 yards is hard to sit ever, and then you factor in his role in the red zone, leading the Hawks in total touchdowns.
Against a mediocre Bills front, Walker should have an average day for himself, which is better than 50 other backs’ best days. The kicker is that Buffalo’s secondary has stepped up this season, leaving more opportunities for short passes to Walker and generally increased touches.
Joe Mixon (Houston Texans) vs Indianapolis Colts
Gridiron AI projected points: 16
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 3
If Ken Walker has been good since returning from his injury, Joe Mixon has been the second coming of Barry Sanders since coming back from his. Mixon’s usage is through the roof in his last 3 games, with the most touches and most points among running backs. The Texans’ run game has never been a highlight in the C.J. Stroud era, but Mixon has been worth much more than the Day 3 pick the Texans traded for him.
This week, Mixon lines up across from a Colts defense set on keeping themselves in the hunt for the AFC South. Unfortunately for them, they’ve also allowed the 2nd most rushing yards in the league this season, largely due to a lack of depth up front after DeForest Buckner and Tyquan Lewis hit the IR. Mixon is primed for another big day, and Gridiron AI completely believes in him, setting him at RB3, ahead of Breece Hall, Derrick Henry, and Bijan Robinson.
Wide Receivers
Davante Adams (New York Jets) @ New England Patriots
Gridiron AI projected points: 13.8
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 8
Let the record show that the author does not believe in the Jets, but the numbers do, placing Adams just one spot below new teammate Garrett Wilson in this week’s projections. It’s no secret that Adams will be Aaron Rodgers’ new top receiver, especially following his Jets debut, where he had as many targets as Wilson and Breece Hall after only being in the building for a week. The chemistry wasn’t back yet, with Davante only catching 3 of his targets against the Steelers, but now he gets to face a Patriots defense that has stopped playing man coverage for some reason. Every DB not named Jabrill Peppers has taken a serious step back under Jerod Mayo, and there isn’t a player that Adams’ talent and experience can’t beat one-on-one.
In his second game with the Jets, expect Adams to lead the team in targets and get close to what he and Aaron were in their last year in Green Bay. Gridiron AI projects Adams to be worth around 14 points, worthy of a true WR1 slot, while maintaining the high upside that comes with being your QB’s favorite target.
Brian Thomas Jr. (Jacksonville Jaguars) vs Green Bay Packers
Gridiron AI projected points: 12.2
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 17
Oh yeah, BTJ is back. After spending Week 6 in a London prison while facing Jaylon Johnson in coverage, Thomas Jr. bounced back against the Patriots, flashing more of his insane ability. 5 catches for 89 yards and a score was his final line in the blowout, and if the game had been closer—not featuring 26 rushes by Tank Bigsby—it could have been a lot deadlier. This week promises an offensive shootout between two below-average pass defenses, and if the Jaguars want to keep up with the Packers’ offense, they’ll be throwing the ball a lot.
We talked a few weeks ago about Thomas Jr. overtaking Christian Kirk as Jacksonville’s top weapon, and while Kirk has continued getting targets, he’s been so much less efficient that it isn’t even a conversation anymore. Continue watching Thomas Jr. for bad matchups and good pass rushes, but he’s as close to a lineup lock as a rookie can get.
Jerry Jeudy (Cleveland Browns) vs Baltimore Ravens
Gridiron AI projected points: 15.9
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 46
Careful, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were set to have big days against Baltimore, and look what happened to them. (Hoping for quick and total recoveries for them both.) We must once again pick against a Ravens pass defense that has played every single coverage too soft this season. With Marlon Humphrey banged up as well, Cleveland’s newly-christened WR1 will have plenty of opportunities to pad his stats. After Amari Cooper was traded away just before Week 7, Jerry Jeudy became the team’s leading receiver with a single, 18-yard catch against the Bengals.
It’s possible that Ced Tillman or David Njoku take the reins against the Ravens, but with Jeudy being the new variable in the division rivalry equation, look for him to make a few solid plays. There’s also a real possibility that the Browns have to take shots early to keep up with the Baltimore offense, so love for all Cleveland receivers is probably on the horizon. We certainly haven't said that yet this year.
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry (New England Patriots) vs New York Jets
Gridiron AI projected points: 9.1
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 9
Henry has been a surprise value player this season, even if he has only been the 2nd best Henry in football. Currently sitting at TE5, he’s still available in a surprising amount of leagues because of how bad the Pats have looked. With Drake Maye taking over under center, though, Henry gets to slide into the high-ceiling role of “young QB safety valve.” He’s had a great fantasy outing in both of Maye’s starts, and against a Jets defense that should easily eliminate Ja’Lynn Polk and JaMycal Hasty, look for Henry to meet or pass his 9 targets from last week. Gridiron AI sees him as TE9 this week, but in a year where tight ends have been much more “bust” than “boom,” it can be nice to have such a stable option in your lineup, worth around 10 points (+ upside) win or lose.
Cade Otton (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) vs Atlanta Falcons
Gridiron AI projected points: 9.7
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 8
It burns to say, but with Godwin and Evans both sidelined with injury, Otton becomes Baker’s best and most established receiver. Jalen McMillan has flashed, so no one could blame you for going after him or Sterling Shepard instead, but Otton is the higher floor, more stable choice. Otton is 3rd on the Bucs in targets, behind the 2 injured stars, and is averaging around 10 yards per catch. He’s only found the end zone once this season, but has found 8.1 PPR points per game as a solid mid-field option, up to 11 average points through the last 3 weeks.
The Falcons pass defense has been middle of the pack this season when it comes to yards, but they’ve given up 12 passing touchdowns, including several to Baker when these two teams met a few weeks ago. The Buccaneers are likely to lean on their 3-headed rushing attack with all of their losses, but when Baker is forced to throw, look for Otton to do his job and be a solid, should-start option.
Sit ‘Em
Quarterbacks
Derek Carr/Spencer Rattler (New Orleans Saints) @ Los Angeles Chargers
Gridiron AI projected points: 13.9/1.2
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 18/37
Carr should be returning from injury, but it was worth including Rattler here just to remind any waiver wire managers that his value is officially gone. Assuming Carr is good to go, it’s safe to say that his bubble from the first two weeks has popped and the Klint Kubiak magic has faded. The Chargers defense appeared cooked when they resorted to signing Eli Apple to their secondary, but they kept the Cardinals pinned to 145 yards through the air, with Derwin James stepping up in a big way as their superstar safety.
The Saints have acknowledged their weakness at receiver, flying in Marquez Valdes-Scantling to fortify their corps, but that doesn’t wipe out the injuries to Shaheed and Olave. At this point, Alvin Kamara is the only reliable part of the Saints’ offense. Carr won’t have time to throw with Khalil Mack bearing down, and the Chargers have only allowed 6 touchdowns through the air this season. Bad matchup, no value.
C.J. Stroud (Houston Texans) vs Indianapolis Colts
Gridiron AI projected points: 13.1
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 20
Stroud is on a similar journey to Patrick Mahomes this season, where he's not necessarily playing poorly, but he’s only doing what he needs to win and nothing more. Don’t think that this is an overreaction to Stroud’s awful game against Green Bay last week, he’s still a stud. The rise of Joe Mixon to prominence in the offense, however, has dimmed Stroud’s star significantly. Mixon had more rushing attempts than Stroud had passes thrown, which shows you where Bobby Slowic’s head is currently.
Against the Colts this week, there’s a possibility that Stroud capitalizes on a weak pass defense, but in a divisional matchup, it’s much more likely that Houston pounds the rock with Mixon and Dameon Pierce. Our model sees Stroud as QB20 this week, still keeping his great upside, but with a higher degree of variance than other, safer QB starts.
Running Backs
David Montgomery (Detroit Lions) vs Tennessee Titans
Gridiron AI projected points: 10.8
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 28
DaMo has been electric this season, and this benching is not reflective of his mistake last week. It’s also not a general sign of a shrinking role in comparison to Jahmyr Gibbs going forward. The Titans are simply a solid run defense that will probably give Gibbs more opportunities than Montgomery. Looking at the numbers, DaMo is Gridiron AI’s 28th running back this week, with a projection 6 points lower than his average score this season.
It’s not just that teams aren’t trying to rush against the Titans. Tennessee has faced plenty of solid, traditional running backs, and has stuffed most of them. D’Andre Swift had 30 yards on 10 runs, Josh Jacobs was 14-for-43, and James Cook had 12 carries, but only went 32 yards. Now, Montgomery is better than all of those guys, on and off paper, but even 15 runs for 60 yards wouldn’t be a quality start without a score. Gibbs is the more flexible back, and is likely to steal touches as a backfield receiver or outside speed-back. Monty rocks, but this isn’t his spot.
Nick Chubb (Cleveland Browns) vs Baltimore Ravens
Gridiron AI projected points: 11.9
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 23
It’s time for every loyal reader’s favorite game: “Let’s Fade RB1 of Whoever’s Playing Baltimore!” Last week was the first time the gambit didn’t pay off, but between Cleveland’s fading offensive line and Chubb having just returned from injury, there’s no reason to believe that the down week will be the new normal. Chubb looked great in his return, even if he’s still half a step slower than he was before his leg went the wrong way.
Although Browns/Ravens is always good TV, the numbers are not in favor of Chubb being a large factor, especially with Baltimore’s pass defense looking so weak, currently the worst in the league by the numbers. Jameis Winston would probably be best served handing it off to Chubb as often as possible, but with Baltimore allowing just over 3 yards per carry and 68 yards per game, that’s not feasible.
Wide Receivers
Reminder Jameson Williams of the Lions is suspended for the next two weeks, so remember to take him out of your lineups. He doesn’t count as a “sit,” but you can have that one for free.
Diontae Johnson (Carolina Panthers) @ Denver Broncos
Gridiron AI projected points: 10
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 33
The Panthers aren’t very good. Hot take, we know. Diontae Johnson was a bright spot for the offense, alongside Chuba Hubbard, but even a 30-target lead over the next most popular pass-catcher couldn’t make Johnson a productive player after the Dalton shock factor wore off. Rookie tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders out-caught Johnson in their loss to the Commanders, and our model doesn’t see any reason for the former Steeler to bounce back against the Denver Broncos this week.
Denver is allowing just 170 passing yards and less than one receiving touchdown per game. And that’s been against the Seahawks, Buccaneers, and Saints, not the Carolina Panthers. Expect Andy Dalton to be benched for the return of Bryce Young at some point this game as the offense completely stalls out, leaving veterans like Johnson holding the bag.
Khalil Shakir (Buffalo Bills) @ Seattle Seahawks
Gridiron AI projected points: 9.5
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 38
To make a long story short, Amari Cooper is already the Bills’ top receiver, and it’s been a week. Keon Coleman also had a nice day against the Titans last week, leading the team in targets, but Cooper got the touchdown pass. Between Coleman, Cooper, and an emerging Dalton Kincaid, Shakir is back to being the odd man out. He could return to his surprise deep-shot days and is still a good contributor in actual football, but in the fantasy world, he’s now too much of a question mark. Without any indicator that he’ll have real value going forward, Gridiron AI has Shakir as a declining WR38 this week, worth a flexable 9.5 points, but don’t be surprised if he undershoots that by 5+.
Tight Ends
Tyler Conklin (New York Jets) @ New England Patriots
Gridiron AI projected points: 7.3
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 20
There’s been a lot of discourse surrounding how much Garrett Wilson’s production in New York will suffer thanks to the Davante Adams acquisition. What the numbers show is that Wilson will be fine, but Tyler Conklin might drop off the map. Conklin found the end zone for the first time this season last week, but he only actually had 7 yards to show for his 4 catches. And his 4 targets were one of his lowest totals on the season. Similar to Khalil Shakir before, Conklin looks like the redheaded stepchild in an offense with too many mouths to feed. Breece Hall and Braelon Allen will both get their touches, and Wilson and Adams are too good to ignore.
The Patriots' defense hasn’t been nearly as good as their units of the past, but only 2 tight ends have gained more than 50 yards against them this season. The Jets already look like a broken team, and projected as TE20 this weekend, Conklin looks like the newest victim of his franchise’s decisions.
Good luck in your fantasy matchups this week, and I look forward to seeing you back here at the same time next week, for more starts and sits. If you would like to gain full access to all of our rankings and predictions, fueled by predictive models and artificial intelligence, then you can get 50% off with the code FF50. Register here: https://gridironai.com/football/info/subscriptions