We really hit our stride in Week 6, with 12 of our 16 players performing as we projected/suggested. So while the NFL remains as unpredictable as ever, loyal Gridiron AI subscribers are still getting a leg up on their fantasy competition. With a fresh slate of games for Week 7, including several projected blowouts, let’s dive in using our analytic tools to decide who you need to start and sit for this week of fantasy action.
A reminder that all numbers in this blog are for PPR leagues. Please use the Gridiron AI menu to set your league’s scoring settings.
Start ‘Em:
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) vs Baltimore Ravens
Gridiron AI projected points: 15.8
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 4
Through 6 weeks, Baker has become as much of a starting lock as there is in the league, which is rarefied air among primarily pocket quarterbacks. He pilots the 2nd highest-scoring offense in football and leads the NFL with 15 passing touchdowns. Conditions won’t be ideal against a fearsome Baltimore defense, but Mayfield is still in position for a solid start on Monday Night.
It can be unnerving to wait for a player to go on Monday, so let’s look at the numbers. Gridiron AI has Baker as QB4 this week, only behind fantasy freaks Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Josh Allen. He’s expected to score 15.8 points at minimum against a Baltimore defense that forces teams to abandon the run but has allowed the 2nd most passing yards and 5th most passing touchdowns. Mix it all together, and even if Baker has big errors like he did last week, he should still post solid numbers… like last week.
Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals) vs Los Angeles Chargers
Gridiron AI projected points: 14.8
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 9
Kyler has been in a hard slump against decent teams over the past couple of weeks, but that all ends against a depleted Los Angeles defense. With Joey Bosa banged up and Asante Samuel Jr. on IR, the Chargers are finally faced with a team in position to pass the ball effectively. Kyler has been proficient in distributing the ball all season, making Michael Wilson look like a Pro Bowler as MHJ develops before our very eyes.
This week is a trend-bucker for the Cardinals, who haven’t gone to the air a lot. Against Eli Apple and Cam Hart, someone is going to give Kyler passing value on every play, whether it’s McBride, Wilson, or even Conner on a checkdown. Unfortunately, Marvin looks set to miss with a concussion, but regardless, our model sees Kyler as QB9, a must-start unless you hold one of the premier talents.
Running Backs
Chuba Hubbard (Carolina Panthers) @ Washington Commanders
Gridiron AI projected points: 14.6
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 7
Hubbard has been the only redeeming quality of the Panthers this season, booming to 3rd in the league in rushing on 5.6 yards per carry. He’s also on pace for the best receiving season of his career. As Carolina goes to Washington, Hubbard gets to face a Commanders defense that is allowing over 135 rushing yards and a touchdown in every game. On top of that, defensive anchor Jonathan Allen is done for the year, and while Jer’Zhan Newton is solid, he’ll be outmatched by Hubbard and the Panthers’ offensive line. Fading a mediocre defense while betting on an emergent runner seems to work out consistently, which is why Hubbard is Gridiron AI’s 7th overall running back, despite the team he plays for.
J.K. Dobbins (Los Angeles Chargers) @ Arizona Cardinals
Gridiron AI projected points: 14.3
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 10
The Chargers' run game was reestablished after their bye week, bowling over the Broncos. Now, J.K. Dobbins has the pleasure of facing the 4th worst run defense in football while being a top-10 rusher even with his bye week thrown in. If the Cardinals' defense were dismal all around, this might not be as strong of a start, but Arizona’s passing defense has remained solid behind Budda Baker. In a game where Greg Roman’s offense can run at will, and with Gus Edwards on the IR, this game should be all J.K., not kidding.
Zamir White (Las Vegas Raiders) @ Los Angeles Rams
Gridiron AI projected points: 9.3
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 27
It hurts to fade the Rams so hard after they were such a fun team to watch last season, but the numbers don’t lie. Los Angeles has fielded the worst rush defense in football and is allowing 4 total touchdowns per game on average. After missing two games with injury, White is set to return and bring his volume with him. Although his stats haven’t been impressive, our model has faith in White to make a triumphant return as a solid RB2 or Flex option, good for 9 or more points against a hobbled Rams defense.
Wide Receivers
Zay Flowers (Baltimore Ravens) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Gridiron AI projected points: 12.5
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 15
Barring a massive regression, this is the last time you’ll see Flowers on one of our posts. From here on out, assume he should be starting, thanks to his major uptick in both targets and consistent production. In this week’s matchup, however, Zay deserves one more shoutout, facing one of the league’s worst passing attacks in a game that promises a lot of points on the board.
Flowers is averaging more than 65 yards per game but has seen an uptick in recent weeks, breaking into the top 10 in yards after the catch. His one weakness has been a lack of red zone efficiency in a system with Derrick Henry and a few great tight ends. Luckily, this week he sees a Tampa defense allowing more than 120 YAC per game. Zay is in a position to feast for the 3rd week in a row, whether he crosses the goal line or not.
Jameson Williams (Detroit Lions) @ Minnesota Vikings
Gridiron AI projected points: 10.3
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 32
When someone tells you who they are, you believe them, and the Vikings have been soft against the pass all year. Most, if not all, resources will be dedicated to slowing down Amon-Ra St. Brown, and while Camryn Bynum is a solid deep safety, he doesn’t stand a chance against the blazing speed of Jamo Williams. After a quiet(er) passing week spent sending a message in Dallas, the Detroit air attack should be back to normal against an above-average run defense.
The real reason to find a spot among your starts for Williams, though, is the upside. Our model projects him to be worth upwards of 20 points, as good as a weaker team’s top receiver. Even with touches being reduced thanks to Gibbs, Montgomery, or St. Brown, Williams has proven that he will get his and turn them into real points, making him worth a long, hard look.
Jayden Reed (Green Bay Packers) vs Houston Texans
Gridiron AI projected points: 12.5
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 16
After two years of mystery, Reed has emerged as a true #1 option for the Packers. In his sophomore season, he’s grabbing 16.4 yards per catch, is a surprisingly reliable jet sweep option, and is almost good for one all-purpose touchdown per game. On value to his team alone, he’s a solid start. This is necessary since the Texans are far from weak through the air. DeMeco Ryans’ defense has clamped down after a tough first few weeks, only surrendering big catches to the Bills and Justin Jefferson.
Reed will have to make his hay in either volume or big plays, but he’s properly suited to either, and more than deserving of a starting receiver slot. He’s projected by Gridiron AI to be a top 20 receiver in Week 7, good for 12.5 points at least.
Tight Ends
David Njoku (Cleveland Browns) vs Cincinnati Bengals
Gridiron AI projected points: 10.4
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 6
There are really 2 points that make Njoku a candidate for TE1 this week, and neither of them are measurable. Because of that, his placement as our model’s 6th overall tight end makes him one of the most locked-in starters you could have in a given week. Not only do the Browns own the Bengals in the Kevin Stefanski era, regardless of team quality, but Njoku usually contributes, good for 3 touchdowns through his last 5 meetings with Cinci, plus 3-to-4 catches per game and a decent chunk of yards.
Add to all of that the fact that the Browns’ top weapon of the last 3 seasons (Cooper) is gone, leaving Njoku as the most experienced weapon that Cleveland has as they battle to keep their season alive. Vibes aside, however, the Bengals have been soft against tight ends, and Njoku can expect a serious increase in touches with the departure of Amari Cooper.
Brock Bowers (Las Vegas Raiders) @ Los Angeles Rams
Gridiron AI projected points: 11.6
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 4
Once again, the closing of a wide receiver door blows open a tight end window, and Brock Bowers already had a pretty open window. Through 6 games, the rookie is averaging 6 catches and 64 yards per game. With Aiden O’Connell under center and Davante Adams sitting out while seeking a trade, his targets have gone through the roof, leading to more yards and his first receiving touchdown. Expect more of the same against a middle-of-the-road Rams linebacker room and secondary, who have allowed season-best games to Tucker Kraft, Trey McBride, and Jauan Jennings (who was technically filling in for George Kittle). Bowers is as talented, if not more so, than all of those guys and will have a higher catch volume with Jakobi Meyers banged up and Davante Adams on another team.
Sit ‘Em
Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins (Atlanta Falcons) vs Seattle Seahawks
Gridiron AI projected points: 13.2
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 15
Cousins is coming off back-to-back weeks of dominant quarterback play, even if his numbers took a slight dip against the Panthers. He’s fully immersed in his new offense and has near-perfect chemistry with his weapons. So why sit him against the Seahawks? His running backs are playing too well.
Without Baltimore’s elite front seven, Mike Macdonald has struggled to fit the run, with the Seahawks giving up the 6th most rushing yards per game. Combine that with Bijan and Tyler Allgeier both being top 30 runners averaging around 5 yards per carry, and the playbook likely won’t involve too many attempts to throw against Devon Witherspoon, Julian Love, and Riq Woolen. Unless the game becomes a shootout, there’s little reason to see Kirk as a high-upside play this week.
Justin Fields (Pittsburgh Steelers) vs New York Jets
Gridiron AI projected points: 15.6
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 5
This one is preemptive. Gridiron AI is entirely data-based, only taking injuries into account, not benchings. After a couple of weeks of solid fantasy production, Fields is in danger of being benched now that Russell Wilson is healthy. There’s a real chance that Wilson is immediately put in as the starter once he practices, or that Fields will be on the shortest leash since Bryce Young.
But let’s say Fields does keep his job against the Jets; he’s in for a tough matchup. The Jets are only allowing 3.4 quarterback rushing yards per carry and have only given up a single rushing touchdown. Against a revamped Jets offense that may be able to control time of possession significantly, the game plan won’t be in favor of Fields’ play style.
Running Backs
James Cook (Buffalo Bills) vs Tennessee Titans
Gridiron AI projected points: 12.7
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 14
Less of a bench for Cook this week and more of a downgrade. He should be good to play after missing Monday Night Football with a foot injury, but even healthy, the matchup isn’t great. Despite the Titans looking rather awful to start the year, their defense has been stout against all facets of offense, allowing the fewest total yards in the NFL. If both the rush and pass will be limited, look for Josh Allen to focus more on his shiny new weapons, Amari Cooper and rookie Keon Coleman, especially working against L’Jarius Sneed, who has proven himself a liability since leaving Kansas City. Cook is still a viable play, but in smaller leagues or on a deeper roster, there is almost certainly a stronger start on your bench.
Bucky Irving/Rachaad White (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) vs Baltimore Ravens
Gridiron AI projected points: 6.3/10.7
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 32/24
The Buccaneers have a couple of massive questions in the running back room, and it’s leaving managers of both of their top rushers scratching their heads. Luckily, the answer this week is simple. DO NOT START A RUSHER AGAINST THE RAVENS. Baltimore may not have the strongest passing attack, but their run defense is without peer right now. White and Irving both have their positive traits and can succeed in certain game plans, but neither has proven themselves to be a strong enough runner, either up the middle or to the outside, to punch a hole in a line that is allowing less than 60 yards per game on the ground. It’s possible that one of these guys grabs a touchdown or a couple of receptions, but neither will crack 10 points this week and should probably stay on your bench.
Wide Receivers
Garrett Wilson (New York Jets) @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Gridiron AI projected points: 14.4
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 4
Another top option hampered by this Tuesday’s news. Davante Adams likely won’t eat up all of Wilson’s touches right off the jump, but against an incredible Steelers pass rush and secondary, neither of them is on track to have a great day regardless. The Jets are in such a state of flux, between changing coaches, play-callers, and even weapons, that it isn’t safe to play anyone not named Breece Hall (and even he’s not a great play against a top-3 rush defense). Long story short, Wilson is still an excellent playmaker who deserves a starting spot most weeks, but with so much shifting in the Meadowlands, it’s the week to give your primary backup a shot.
Alec Pierce (Indianapolis Colts) vs Miami Dolphins
Gridiron AI projected points: 8
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 56
Pierce was exceptional in Week 5 alongside Joe Flacco, but with Richardson slated to return, it seems like momentum will shift back towards Josh Downs and Michael Pittman Jr. Add to that a matchup against the 3rd overall pass defense run by the Dolphins, and all of Pierce’s magic seems to vanish, just as it did last week against the Titans.
Pierce is deadly efficient on deep balls and YAC, but if he can’t get open against Jalen Ramsey, what’s a wideout to do? Our model sees Pierce as a third-tier receiver this week because of the tough matchup, only viable as a last-resort option in massive leagues. His upside remains present thanks to his speed and designed plays for him, but his much more likely floor is another goose egg like he laid last week.
Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert (or replacement PHI TE)
Gridiron AI projected points: 8.2
Gridiron AI positional ranking: 16
The Giants' defense has been more solid this season than anyone could’ve expected. They’ve especially loved limiting tight ends, with the best day against them this season coming from Jake Ferguson going for 49 yards and no score. With Devonta Smith and AJ Brown both back in the fold, Goedert has gone from Hurts’ top passing option all the way to number 4, behind the receivers and Saquon in a fully loaded offense.
Philly has been mediocre through the air all season, even against mediocre secondaries like the Buccaneers and Saints. They haven’t scored more than 3 touchdowns in a game since Week 1, and Goedert hasn’t found the end zone yet this season. All signs point to a serious step back for the Eagles’ TE1, with our model seeing him as the 16th-best option at his position. It is worth noting that Goedert left last week's game with an injury. If he were to miss, you can transfer all of this information to their next tight end up.
Good luck in your fantasy matchups this week, and I look forward to seeing you back here at the same time next week for more starts and sits. If you would like to gain full access to all of our rankings and predictions, fueled by predictive models and artificial intelligence, then you can get 50% off with the code FF50. Register here:
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