Week 4 was about as chaotic as they come, with blowouts and upsets as far as the eye can see. A couple of key players are down for the count with injuries, but our predictions have been more solid than ever. This week, let's dive into Week 5 matchups, using Gridiron AI's fantasy tools to decide which players you have to start, and who should probably stay on the bench.
A reminder that all numbers in this blog are for PPR leagues. Please use the Gridiron AI menu to set your league’s scoring settings.
Start ‘Em:
Quarterbacks
Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers) vs Arizona Cardinals
- Gridiron AI projected points: 14.4
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 9
For being second in the league in passing yards this season, we haven’t given Purdy a whole lot of love in these weekly check-ins. He’s been good, not great all season, but even coming off a quiet week against the Patriots, he’s trending upwards heading into this week. The 49ers see the Cardinals this weekend, who have allowed the 4th most PPR points to QBs this season. With Kittle and Deebo back in the fold, the middle of the field, where Arizona’s defense is the weakest, should be easy pickings.
Purdy has averaged just 16.2 points per game, and that’s with decreased touchdown numbers. Now, he faces a team allowing 3 total TDs per game. It’s worth noting that Jordan Mason could vulture a lot of goal-line plays from Purdy, but with the volatility of divisional matchups, our model still likes Purdy as QB9 this week, projected to get to at least 14.4 points.
Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers) @ Los Angeles Rams
- Gridiron AI projected points: 14.6
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 7
Jordan Love is back, and in the second half of last week, he actually looked like himself. Fantasy managers everywhere recoiled at Love’s three interceptions versus the Vikings, but even that didn’t stop him from throwing for the second-most yards in the week, as well as four touchdowns, which more than made up for the point loss. The way Love looked back in rhythm on Sunday bodes well for him continuing the trajectory he was on at the end of last year, and now he faces a Rams team that he should be able to pick apart.
It has already been confirmed that Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp will remain out through this week, so in order to dominate possession, the Packers just have to limit Kyren Williams. With that singular focus, Love should have a solid number of touches, and should be able to capitalize on a Rams team that allows 2 passing touchdowns per game, as well as almost 220 passing yards per game.
Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson (New England Patriots) vs Miami Dolphins
- Gridiron AI projected points: 12.3
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 19
The last time Rhamondre appeared on one of these pieces, it didn’t end well, on Thursday Night Football against the Jets. This time, however, there is no variable, because we have a direct comparison from last week. The Dolphins are awful without Tua under center, which will lead to maximized touches for the Patriots’ lead back. Add to this the fact that Miami still hasn’t adjusted properly to the loss of Christian Wilkins in the middle of the D-line, and you get a team allowing 120 yards on the ground every week and 2 rushing touchdowns every game.
Rhamondre himself has been solid all year, with his averages dragged down by that awful TNF performance. After OC Alex Van Pelt acknowledged that they underutilized him, however, his touches increased, especially in the passing game. Now, this didn’t result in big gains against the 9ers, but with the Dolphins coming to Gillette Stadium, Stevenson is in a position to feast.
James Cook (Buffalo Bills) @ Houston Texans
- Gridiron AI projected points: 12.2
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 20
Classic bounce-back spot here. Cook flashed a few times against the Ravens, but ultimately didn’t play any kind of memorable game. He averaged 20.2 points per game before last Sunday, and has been the center of Buffalo’s offense when not facing the one team in football who has always been great against the run. This week, against a Texans team who is coming down from an intense win over a rival, Cook gets them in a trap spot.
Gridiron AI'S model may not account for the emotion behind a bounce-back spot, but it sure does like the pure matchup, as well as Cook's overall productivity this year, projecting him to be RB20 in Week 5, worth 12.2 points and a locked up spot among your starting rushers.
D’Andre Swift (Chicago Bears) vs Carolina Panthers
- Gridiron AI projected points: 12.8
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 18
Okay, hear me out. Swift hasn't been great this year. He hasn’t even been good. But this matchup is too good to pass on, no matter how you feel about the Bears. Matt Eberflus didn’t make good on his claim to give Roschon Johnson an extended look against the Rams thanks to (finally) a productive day from Swift, and now a rejuvenated Bears team sees a depleted Carolina one.
The Panthers just lost Shaq Thompson for the season and have 3 D-linemen on injured reserve, as well as four other defensive pieces. Before the Thompson injury, Carolina was already allowing the 4th most rushing yards per game to go along with the worst scoring defense in football.
Life has gotten easier with Andy Dalton under center, but against the Bears' defense, that will certainly not be enough. Swift is projected to score 12.8 points this week by our model, with a ceiling in the high 20s. Despite Chicago’s struggles early this season, they’re built to boat-race a team like the Panthers, so don’t risk missing out on their RB1’s upside.
Wide Receivers
D.J. Moore (Chicago Bears) vs Carolina Panthers
- Gridiron AI projected points: 12.5
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 13
Staying with the Bears, it seems like the offensive identity in Chicago is finally setting in. And whether you love or hate Shane Waldron, he knows how to feed his top receiver, which could mean big things for D.J. Moore against the Panthers. The long and short of this pick comes down to two elements. One: Moore dominates Chicago’s target-share, pulling in 34 targets through 4 games, while being a supreme YAC threat for Da Bears. And two: Jaycee Horn can’t be everywhere at once. None of Carolina’s safeties can eliminate the threat that Moore poses, and Michael Jackson would get rolled in a 1-on-1 matchup.
Moore has looked frustrated early in the season, with lots of media attention on his lack of excitement after the win against the Rams last week, but an angry D.J. might be just what his fantasy owners ordered. Carolina has the perfect defense for him to both get that frustration out and finally link up with Caleb Williams in a big way, which is why his upside in our model is 22.6 points, with him trending toward wide receiver 13 this week.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (Arizona Cardinals) @ San Francisco 49ers
- Gridiron AI projected points: 13.3
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 8
It’s officially time to lock MHJ into your starting lineup, so this will be the last time you see him on one of these posts this season (barring injury or fall-off). He’s led the Cardinals in receiving yards in each of the last 3 weeks, and he’s found the end zone every week as well. Even when his yardage numbers aren’t high, his catch volume since Week 1 has been excellent, and a touchdown per week is enough to make up for any down day. Add to that Harrison Jr.'s improving catch rate, due to an increase from just 50%, and his big play potential goes through the roof.
The 49ers have allowed 215 receiving yards per game, which is middle-of-the-pack, but they’ve allowed 453 yards after the catch. Any time Kyler sees #18 lined up against anyone not named Charvarius Ward, he should be throwing at him. Finally, factor in the potential absence of Fred Warner, and MHJ might have a big day in store.
Michael Pittman Jr. (Indianapolis Colts) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- Gridiron AI projected points: 11.4
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 24
Joe Flacco is likely going to start for the Colts in Week 5 after another injury to Anthony Richardson. And while that is unfortunate for the Colts as a whole, as Richardson adds such depth to the run game, it may be a very good thing for Michael Pittman Jr. The Colts' possession receiver has dominated Indy’s targets, but has struggled to link up with Richardson, catching just 17 of his 29 targets. He hasn’t found the end zone yet this season, and he’s averaging just 50 yards per game. But the answer to all these problems may be Joe Flacco.
With a backup QB for most of last season, Pittman was extremely successful due to his fit in Shane Steichen’s system, and while with the Browns, Flacco boosted Amari Cooper’s stats to their ceiling. In combination, Pittman is set for a big week against the 2nd worst pass defense in football: the Jacksonville Jaguars. With 273 yards per game allowed through the air and 2 receiving TDs allowed per game, this will be a great game for the Colts’ receivers, and Pittman is our model’s choice for Indy’s WR1.
Tight Ends
George Kittle (San Francisco 49ers) vs Arizona Cardinals
- Gridiron AI projected points: 9.4
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 7
While Trey McBride returning from concussion protocol makes him an attractive play this week, the higher-upside tight end in this rivalry match is Kittle. The Cardinals’ defense against tight ends has been solid so far this year, but they haven’t faced George Kittle. With the 2nd most receiving touchdowns in San Francisco, Kittle would be the 3rd best receiver on his team if it weren’t for Jauan Jennings’ massive Week 3 performance boosting his stats.
Kittle catches 88% of his targets, and is Purdy’s safety net when he can’t find Deebo or Aiyuk. While no tight end is a massive boom play this season, Kittle is good for multiple red zone targets every week, and with the scoring that Arizona has been allowing this year, he should be a lock to find the end zone. That makes up for any potential volume concerns, which is why Gridiron AI has Kittle firmly in the starting tight end group, worth 9.4 points on average.
Cade Otton (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) @ Atlanta Falcons
- Gridiron AI projected points: 9.3
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 8
Baker Mayfield has been dealing this season, and against a solid Atlanta secondary, he should be looking to his “break glass” tight end at multiple points this weekend. On downs dominated by A.J. Terrell and Justin Simmons, Chris Godwin, and Mike Evans can’t be open every play, and while the Tampa Bay rushing attack is now more productive, as we’ll see later, it’s not enough to open up clear passing lanes.
A big part of Otton’s value comes from his snap percentage; he’s on the field for 95.5% of the Bucs’ offensive plays, meaning that he has more opportunities to get touches than any other tight end in football. This doesn’t always directly translate, but it leaves Otton as a very high-upside play, especially after 2 straight weeks of dominating over the middle, where Atlanta is the weakest. With a Gridiron AI upside of 16.7 points, Otton isn’t a sure thing, but no TE has been this season, so he’s definitely worth a long look.
Sit ‘Em
Quarterbacks
Sam Darnold (Minnesota Vikings) vs New York Jets
- Gridiron AI projected points: 13
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 17
The Vikings’ bubble is set to burst, and the point of failure is almost certainly going to be Sam Darnold. Facing the New York Jets in London, Darnold is tasked with facing his former team and their terrifying defense. The Jets have been slow to get going in the takeaway department, but Darnold has been picked off 3 times and fumbled once through 4 weeks, and he’ll be under more pressure Sunday morning than he has all of this season so far.
New York has allowed the 2nd fewest passing yards in football through 4 weeks, and are giving up just 15.5 points per game, which may force Minnesota to utilize their run game more in order to gain momentum and control. This would minimize any potential mistakes from Darnold, but would also keep his production to a minimum. Because of the threat posed by the Jets’ defense and the variables of playing overseas, Darnold has landed at Gridiron AI’s 17th QB spot. At a projection of 13 points, there are simply too many more stable QB options this week.
Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals) vs Baltimore Ravens
- Gridiron AI projected points: 13.8
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 10
The Ravens own Joe Burrow, plain and simple. Since his rookie year, Burrow has only thrown for more than 225 yards against Baltimore twice, and never since 2021. He also turns the ball over and gets sacked more than he does against most other teams, while the Ravens typically dominate time of possession and force him to play hero-ball. In an all-or-nothing game to keep the Bengals from dropping to 1-4, that hero-ball mode might get unlocked sooner rather than later, which will lead to mistakes against Kyle Hamilton and Roquan Smith.
This isn’t a lock as a bust, since Baltimore’s pass defense has been so porous, but Josh Allen looked like a mess against the Ravens’ pass-rush and coverage, and Burrow hasn’t looked anywhere near as solid as Allen had going into last week. It’s more than possible that Joe Cool comes through and gets a statement win against his division rival, but his projection only comes out as a borderline starter, meaning most managers are probably better off looking for a quarterback who’s facing a team that hasn’t historically pinned him down.
Running Backs
Rachaad White (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) @ Atlanta Falcons
- Gridiron AI projected points: 11.2
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 25
Rachaad White may be falling off, and it’s just his third season in the league. At this point, most of you have seen the stat that White touched the ball more than any weapon last season, despite being the least efficient player in the league when he had the football. Our model takes last year into account, but White has somehow looked even weaker this season, leading to the quick rise of Bucky Irving, who has out-rushed and out-carried him since week 2.
White hasn’t found the end zone this season, and even though the Falcons have been soft against the run, they’re only allowing one rushing touchdown per game on average. The way things are currently looking, that TD would more likely go to Irving than White. Every trend points to the continued drop-off of Rachaad White, leaving him as Gridiron AI’s 25th back, worth a flex spot at best.
Javonte Williams (Denver Broncos) vs Las Vegas Raiders
- Gridiron AI projected points: 11.8
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 22
Williams has been one of the only redeeming factors of a Broncos team struggling to find their footing with a young QB. Unfortunately, against Christian Wilkins at the line of scrimmage, he isn’t in position for a great day. Williams is averaging just 8.8 points through his last 3 games, and with Nix finally starting to push the ball to his receivers, the back’s role in the passing game has dropped off the map.
Matched up against a Raiders team who allowed just 92 yards on 22 carries last week against the Browns, the 3rd worst run-blocking team in the league doesn’t project well here. Williams is projected to score 11.8 points, which makes him a potential flex option, but at RB22, there are probably lots of other options on your roster with higher upside this week.
Wide Receivers
Christian Kirk (Jacksonville Jaguars) vs Indianapolis Colts
- Gridiron AI projected points: 9
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 42
The Christian Kirk renaissance is over, and the Brian Thomas Jr. era is here to stay. Kirk flashed both his talent and chemistry with Trevor Lawrence last week against the rival Texans, but against a worse defense who will leave Thomas Jr. more open, he should be left aside.
The Jaguars may have used up all their offensive magic in their hard-fought loss to the Texans, and even if the only winless team in the league manages to beat the Richardson-less Colts, it won’t be because of Kirk. The Colts are allowing more than 160 yards per game on the ground, and Jacksonville already wants to be feeding Etienne & Bigsby, so most of the touches on offense will be going up the middle. Add to that Thomas Jr.'s greater production on fewer targets, and it's no wonder that Gridiron AI sees Kirk as a bottom-tier flex option, worth just 9 points this week, good for wide receiver 42.
Jaylen Waddle (Miami Dolphins) @ New England Patriots
- Gridiron AI projected points: 7.3
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 58
It’s tough to fade such a talented player, but there isn’t a single Dolphins player worth starting right now. Tyler Huntley can be a quality backup in a pinch, but he doesn’t have the arm or chemistry of Tua, who this system is so clearly built around. Skyler Thompson knows the system, but only dumps the ball to Tyreek and his running backs. Waddle has averaged just 7.1 points per game since Tua’s injury, and against a stern Patriots defense, who will see him lined up either against Christian Gonzalez or versus a double team involving Kyle Dugger, he is likely to struggle. Our model expects even more diminished production from Miami’s WR2, projecting him to score just 7.3 points in Week 5. It’s a scary bench because of his pedigree, but Waddle shouldn’t be starting this week.
Tight Ends
Isaiah Likely (Baltimore Ravens) @ Cincinnati Bengals
- Gridiron AI projected points: 3.2
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 31
Now, don’t take this as a sign to buy up all the Mark Andrews stock you can, it just doesn’t look like a huge day for Ravens tight ends. Baltimore does own the Bengals, with an 8-1 record when Lamar plays since 2018. Even when Andrews was injured last year, however, Likely didn’t catch either of his 2 targets against Cincinnati. And although Lou Anarumo’s defense has been shaky, the season high for a tight end against the Bengals is 5 catches for 38 yards and no TDs by Austin Hooper in week one.
Likely is a solid backup tight end in most weeks, but against Cincinnati, when Derrick Henry is set to run the ball 20+ times, Likely is more likely to be relegated to blocking detail or the bench than to have a boom game.
Good luck in your fantasy matchups this week, and I look forward to seeing you back here at the same time next week, for more starts and sits. If you would like to gain full access to all of our rankings and predictions, fueled by predictive models and artificial intelligence, then you can get 50% off with the code FF50. Register here: https://gridironai.com/football/info/subscriptions