Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season was utter chaos, littered with upsets and nail-biters. While some teams fell, hopefully your fantasy teams have been flying high with help from Gridiron AI. As we enter Week 4, not only has our generative model developed more, but trends are beginning to stabilize for the season. Let’s look at Week 4 matchups and find those fringe starting players that you should or shouldn’t use in fantasy face-offs this week.
Reminder that all numbers in this blog are for PPR leagues. Please use the Gridiron AI menu to set your league’s scoring settings.
Start ‘Em:
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys) @ New York Giants
- Gridiron AI projected points: 15.4
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 6
Dak against the Giants: what could go wrong? The Cowboys are coming off back-to-back losses, but now they face a New York team that hasn’t beaten them since 2020. The passing attack is alive and well, with a healthy Jake Ferguson and CeeDee Lamb back on-track, but it’s especially potent because of Dallas’ poor run-game, forcing more pass plays, and their worse defense, which has made Dak push the ball downfield in 2 straight weeks.
While the Giants probably can’t force a shootout, the Cowboys are in as good of a bounce-back spot as any. Dak has averaged 265 yards per game against New York since the Giants last beat Dallas, and the Cowboys have averaged 34 PPG against the G-Men. Dak has played solid football this year, and now gets what should be a freebie for fantasy managers. He’s projected to be QB6, worth an average of 15.4 points.
Geno Smith (Seattle Seahawks) @ Detroit Lions
- Gridiron AI projected points: 13.9
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 11
With a lot of volatility at the position early in 2024, Geno Smith has been a solid starting QB option every week, averaging 16.7 ppg through 3 weeks. Consistent scoring wins more leagues than a few lucky “booms,” so Geno is always a good option unless you have an established superstar on your roster. This week in particular, Geno gets to see a defense he carved up last season, with a high ceiling this time around.
Against the Lions in 2023, Smith dropped 23.1 fantasy points, and even though the Lions are certainly better this year, Geno will still get his. Kenneth Walker III remaining banged up means continued emphasis on the aerial attack, which Geno has captained beautifully, good for 3rd in the league in passing yards. He’ll carry on the momentum this week, projected to be QB11, (10 if Jordan Love doesn’t play).
Running Backs
Kyren Williams (Los Angeles Rams) @ Chicago Bears
- Gridiron AI projected points: 16.7
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 6
Los Angeles’s offense ran through Kyren Williams before Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua went down. With them gone, his share of possessions spiked last week against the 49ers, and he delivered a dominant 3-TD performance. Now, that can’t be expected every week, and especially not against a great Chicago defense, but their weakness has been the run so far, and Williams can channel his inner Marshawn Lawrence when given the right opening.
LA is still hampered by injuries, especially on the o-line, but Williams performed against a solid San Francisco unit last week in the same circumstances. His Gridiron AI upside is estimated to be 34.3 points, 2nd only to Saquon Barkley, mostly because of his ability to work in both the run and pass game, as well as the dependence his team has on him now. He’s a bona-fide RB1 going forward.
Aaron Jones (Minnesota Vikings) @ Green Bay Packers
- Gridiron AI projected points: 17
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 5
Aaron Jones has been very up-and-down so far, with two great performances and an awful one, but he’s due to settle into above-average very soon. In his revenge game against the Green Bay Packers, Jones will need to capitalize on his 19 touches, with which he’s been good for more than 100 total yards per game. He’s also due for more goal-line touches, as the big plays from Darnold to Jefferson will be more limited as teams get game film on the connection.
Jones is a boring player to cover, simply because he is perfectly fine at everything. This makes managers sit on the edge of benching him every week in favor of higher-upside options. This week, Jones is solidly an RB1, facing a Packers defense that was run all over by Saquon and Jonathan Taylor. He’s projected to score 17 points, with a much higher upside, landing him at RB5 in our model.
Brian Robinson Jr. (Washington Commanders) @ Arizona Cardinals
- Gridiron AI projected points: 11.6
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 25
More on-the-fringes as a high-end flex play, Robinson Jr. should be firmly on his managers’ radars after a dominant Monday Night Football performance last week. Add to that the potential loss of Austin Ekeler next week, and his already modest share of touches should boom. The Cardinals are no pushovers, but they have been allowing over 120 rush yards per game, and got crushed by Detroit’s rushing attack just last week.
Robinson has been averaging a respectable 4.6 yards per carry, and while he isn’t a massive presence in the passing game, he’s still performing well in PPR leagues, and is projected by our model to be RB25 this week. Against an Arizona team who has experience working against mobile QBs, Jayden Daniels should be kept more in check, handing it off more to Robinson Jr.
Wide Receivers
Diontae Johnson (Carolina Panthers) vs Cincinnati Bengals
- Gridiron AI projected points: 11.3
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 22
Sometimes the hot plays are good plays, and the Panthers are hot right now. With the QB change to Andy Dalton, Dave Canales’ offense is flashing again, and Johnson should be a primary beneficiary. Diontae saw his targets jump to 14 last week, up from an average of 6, and on only 8 catches, the new Panther found 122 yards and a score. Expect a step back from that performance, but not a large one.
Carolina’s opponent is a desperate Cincinnati team that couldn’t adjust to the Commanders’ tempo. If the Panthers can get rolling early, Johnson’s Gridiron AI upside of 21.5 points seems well within reason. The Bengals won’t underestimate Carolina after their performance last week, but Johnson should still get his, projected to be WR22 this weekend.
Chris Godwin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) vs Philadelphia Eagles
- Gridiron AI projected points: 12.9
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 12
With Mike Evans still considered Tampa’s top receiving options, Chris Godwin has slipped through the cracks and become truly underrated. But with his improved chemistry with Baker and an Eagles defense that has struggled against #2 receivers (Darnell Mooney especially), this could be another great outing for the 28-year-old.
The Eagles are giving up over 200 air yards per game and have been losing the turnover battle, while the Bucs have only turned the ball over 3 times all season and Godwin is good for a touchdown-per-game, on average. He’s leading the Buccaneers in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns, and in a bounce-back game for Tampa Bay, our model expects him to score 12.9 points, good for WR12.
Zay Flowers (Baltimore Ravens) vs Buffalo Bills
- Gridiron AI projected points: 11.9
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 17
Flowers went quiet last week, but against a poor Buffalo defense, that’s arguably a good thing. In his rookie season, following games with 50 or fewer receiving yards, Flowers almost always came back by either leading the Ravens in receiving yards or scoring a TD the next week. Now, as Baltimore’s no-doubt number-one, his 5 targets against the Cowboys was an incredible outlier from his 10+ average.
The Ravens’ defense has struggled against air-raid offenses this season, so when they slow the Bills rushing game and force a throwing-duel, there’s a real chance Sunday Night Football becomes a shootout. In order to win that, the Ravens will need to lean on Flowers, and the passing game as a whole is due for more emphasis after using Derrick Henry so heavily against Dallas. Our model sees Flowers as WR17 this week, a solid starting option good for about 12 points.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs) @ Los Angeles Chargers
- Gridiron AI projected points: 10.4
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 5
It’s been an incredibly quiet start to the season for one of the best tight ends in history. But against a depleted Chargers team who just had their starting safety suspended for this week, he can’t fail. Derwin James will miss Sunday’s game, and Joey Bosa is in question, meaning Mahomes will have extra time to throw, giving Kelce time to find open space, which he does better than almost anyone.
The Chargers defense was already giving up plenty of receptions over the middle to tight ends, and down a few key players, Kelce is due for a much stronger performance and most likely his first score of the season. Gridiron AI sees him as TE5 this week, regardless of his diminished role this season. Add to this that Carson Steele probably won’t drive an inspiring run game, and this could be the Kelce bounce-back spot that managers have prayed for.
Dalton Kincaid (Buffalo Bills) @ Baltimore Ravens
- Gridiron AI projected points: 8.5
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 11
The Ravens defense has gotten gashed two weeks in a row by great tight ends, and Kincaid seems to be next in line. Gridiron AI has him as TE11 this week, but with an upside of 15.8 points because of the open shots teams have gotten against Baltimore’s smaller linebackers. With Stefon Diggs gone, targets have finally started spreading around in Buffalo, and Kincaid has solidified his role as their top tight end. He’s 2nd on the team in targets and catches, and he gets 75% of his yards after the catch, and the Ravens have given up over 450 yards after completion in just 3 games.
James Cook will likely be a limited piece of the puzzle against a Baltimore team who doesn’t let anyone run the ball, so Josh Allen should be throwing a lot. If target share stays the same, Kincaid should be in for his best game so far this season, win or lose.
Sit ‘Em
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams) @ Chicago Bears
- Gridiron AI projected points: 12.3
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 21
Stafford’s Rams are in trouble, with injuries kneecapping their exciting season. But that hasn’t been enough to stop them, with an impressive win over the rival 49ers preventing an 0-3 start. Unfortunately, the Rams are now playing a better defense than that of a banged-up San Francisco, the Chicago Bears. The Bears are allowing just 19 points per game and are fielding a top-10 pass defense against solid offenses.
Stafford performed well in a football sense last week, but has underperformed by fantasy standards in each of the last two weeks, with just 2 passing TDs all year. In Chicago, and still missing his top 2 receivers, the ball should still be getting handed off a good chunk of the time, limiting Stafford’s upside. His Gridiron AI ceiling is just 19.2 points, with his true projection coming to 12.3 points, good for QB21.
Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis Colts) vs Pittsburgh Steelers
- Gridiron AI projected points: 12.4
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 19
AR5 has been a roller coaster in his sophomore season; some of the very best and very worst plays in football. Because of this, our model’s QB19 still has an upside of well over 20 points. That said, the model strongly errs on the side of caution, projecting Richardson to produce just 12.4 points against the Steelers. With fewer total yards than every QB ahead of him not named Deshaun Watson, it’s to the bench this week for the Colts QB.
Pittsburgh fielding one of the best defenses in football is the biggest reason to sit Richardson this week, but his flaws have been on display recently, downgrading him further. AR is AVERAGING 3.5 turnovers per game, as well as just half a touchdown per game. (mostly thanks to Jonathan Taylor) At QB19 in our projections, there’s no reason to play Anthony Richardson this week.
Running Backs
J. K. Dobbins (Los Angeles Chargers) vs Kansas City Chiefs
- Gridiron AI projected points: 12.7 (downside 2)
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 14
This selection has nothing to do with Dobbins and everything to do with the crumbling offense around him. Justin Herbert aggravated his bad ankle late against the Steelers last week, while tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, two of the best at their positions, also went down with injuries that could keep them out this week. Justin Herbert is backed up by the serviceable Taylor Heinicke, but the Chargers don’t currently have a listed backup for Joe Alt, and only one healthy backup for Slater.
Dobbins has been solid through 3 weeks, but struggled against a solid Steelers defense, only managing 44 yards on 15 carries. Against a good, not great, Chiefs front 7, he would have been a decent flex play with upside, but thanks to the O-line being in flux, to say the least, there’s no guarantee of gaps or real opportunities for him. Our model shows his floor to be just 2 points this week.
Jahmyr Gibbs (Detroit Lions) vs Seattle Seahawks
- Gridiron AI projected points: 6.4
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 35
Gibbs is a quandary in this league. The talent and production of a top 10 running back, sharing the room with a top 5 running back. (who takes the goal-line touches) He’s been productive, but our model hates the matchup this week. Mike MacDonald and the Seahawks are a messy team to face with their young, talented defense. They’re allowing the 2nd fewest yards in the league, and a finesse runner like Gibbs can’t take advantage of their scheme, as we saw last year when MacDonald captained the Ravens offense.
DaMo should dominate touches in this game, which is why our model has him 14 spots above Gibbs on our RB Board, with an upside double that of the 2nd-year. Gibbs is still a good flex play, as his speed and shiftiness makes him a threat on broken plays, but with a projected score of just 6.4 points, there are almost certainly safer options on your bench.
Wide Receivers
Christian Kirk (Jacksonville Jaguars) @ Houston Texans
- Gridiron AI projected points: 6.3
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 72
Jacksonville is in a bad place, and Christian Kirk in a contract year hasn’t been part of the solution. Despite still being Trevor Lawrence’s favorite target, Kirk has slipped to third on his team in receiving yards, and has still yet to find the end zone. He’s also only catching 59% of his targets. Even though he’s still technically the WR1 in Duval County, our model sees him all the way down at WR72.
For managers hoping for the breakout game to justify Kirk’s top-30 WR draft status, it’s not coming against the Texans. Houston is currently fielding a top 5 defense by the numbers, even after a disappointing week against the Vikings. And if Derek Stingley Jr lines up across from Kirk, he may not touch the ball all day. His Gridiron AI upside is just 12.7 points, with a downside of less than 2.
Jauan Jennings (San Francisco 49ers) vs New England Patriots
- Gridiron AI projected points: 9.7
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 36
There are few things more tempting than buying up all the Jauan Jennings stock after the single most impressive performance by any player in football so far this year. That said, hold off. Until the Kittle injury, Jennings was in his normal role of the “gotta-have-it” outlet on 3rd down plays. It’s much more likely that he fades closer to that role instead of replicating anything close to his monster Sunday from last week.
Against a sturdy Patriots defense coming off a mini-bye, it will be harder for Jennings to run free, especially against New England’s gifted secondary. Additionally, there’s a real chance that George Kittle returns quickly from injury, stealing back the targets usually reserved for him. Our model has Jennings landing around WR36, a very low-end flex option.
Tight Ends
Kyle Pitts (Atlanta Falcons) vs New Orleans Saints
- Gridiron AI projected points: 7.2
- Gridiron AI positional ranking: 17
It hurts my heart to say it, but Kyle Pitts just isn’t going to be a reliable option as long as he’s in Atlanta. A flash in week 1 gave managers hope for the long-awaited breakout season, but Pitts has averaged 6.45 PPR points since, landing around Tight End 17. Coincidentally, this is exactly where our model places him.
Against the division rival Saints in Week 4, Atlanta shouldn’t have too much trouble moving the ball, and New Orleans struggled against Dallas Goedert, but Goedert is a key part of Philly’s attack, unlike Pitts. The Saints did, however, succeed against the Cowboys, limiting Luke Schoonmaker to just 43 yards on 6 catches. Because of the matchup and his limited role, Gridiron AI sees Kyle Pitts as unplayable this week.
Good luck in your fantasy matchups this week, and I look forward to seeing you back here at the same time next week, for more starts and sits. If you would like to gain full access to all of our rankings and predictions, fueled by predictive models and artificial intelligence, then you can get 50% off with the code FF50. Register here