After two wild weeks of NFL action, week three saw things start to settle down. Sure, there were still surprises—like Matthew Stafford and the Rams' big comeback bid against the 49ers and Malik Willis leading the Packers to a big win over his former team, the Titans—but for the most part, the expected outcomes held. The Lions, Chiefs, and Texans continued their momentum, while the Ravens finally got into the win column, despite a shaky finish. With teams beginning to show their true form, our AI models are now more accurate than ever, helping you make smarter bets for week four. Let’s dive in!
Game Previews and Betting Suggestions
1. New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers
The Bet: New England to cover +10 (-110)
Gridiron AI prediction: 70%
This 10-point spread is by far the widest of the week, and Gridiron AI gives the New England Patriots the best odds of any team to cover. Both teams are 1-2, and regardless of what the line might suggest, the Patriots have actually played fairly well so far this season. In week one, Jacoby Brissett upset the heavily favored Cincinnati Bengals on the road, and in week two they brought the undefeated Seahawks into OT before ultimately losing by a field goal. This spread seems like a huge overreaction to New England’s most recent game against Aaron Rodgers and the Jets, which was admittedly a very poor showing. But looking at their season holistically, no team should be given that large of a spread against the Patriots.
San Francisco hasn’t been perfect either, far from it, as the defense has struggled thus far, and they sit below .500 as well. After going up 14 points in the first quarter against the Rams on Sunday, the offense slowed down significantly and allowed a massive comeback by an LA team that is incredibly undermanned. The Rams didn’t have a 100-yard receiver or a 100-yard rusher, but managed to put together several scoring drives late and win 27-24.
Without Christian McCaffrey, Deebo, or George Kittle, the Niners' offense hasn’t been quite what it was before. Another 175 yards and 3 touchdowns from Jauan Jennings is unfathomable, so this Niners' offense is going to have to find other outlets for production. Either way, a 10-point spread is pretty outlandish considering how banged up this team is, so the AI gives New England a 70% chance to cover.
2. Miami Dolphins vs. Tennessee Titans
The Bet: Miami to cover -1 (-110)
Gridiron AI prediction: 65%
Both the Miami Dolphins and the Tennessee Titans have had absolutely brutal luck to start the 2024 season. Obviously, Tua Tagovailoa is out indefinitely, so Skylar Thompson is starting in the meantime, and Will Levis is really struggling. So badly, in fact, that he currently leads the league in turnovers with seven through three games.
Now, common sense would lead you to believe that a career backup with little experience doesn’t stand much of a chance against this Titans team, but thankfully we don’t have to wonder about that. Malik Willis just torched the Titans in week three to the tune of 200 yards and a touchdown through the air, and an additional 70 yards and a score on the ground. Everything came easy for the Pack against this Titans defense, which was previously shaping up to be one of the best units in the league, and Green Bay cruised to a 30-14 victory.
Tennessee faces an eerily similar situation in week four, so it’ll be interesting to see if they can adapt. While Mike McDaniels has a more difficult scheme for an inexperienced quarterback than Matt LeFleur, Skylar Thompson already has much more familiarity with the playbook after spot-starting over the past few years. It’s also possible that Miami gives the starting nod to Tyler Huntley, who they just acquired heading into week three, which would be another viable option. Huntley, who is technically a pro bowler, has shown significantly more than Thompson in his time as a backup, and would be serviceable this week.
But the reality of the situation is, this Miami team is far more talented all around than a Tennessee team that is clearly early in a difficult rebuild. Between Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De’von Achane, they still have star power on offense that will help whoever their quarterback is be successful in the short term. Our models think so too, which is why Miami is our second-highest pick to cover on the week at 65% odds.
3. Carolina Panthers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bet: Carolina to cover +4.5 (-110)
Gridiron AI prediction: 63%
Although both teams haven’t performed well so far this season, the Carolina Panthers and Cincinnati Bengals seem to be two teams moving in opposite directions. Joe Burrow and Cincinnati entered this season with sky-high expectations and Super Bowl ambitions, but Carolina was expected to be a bottom feeder. But through one game with Andy Dalton as the signal-caller, Carolina already looks like a completely different team. Dalton looked like one of the best QBs in the NFL on Sunday, throwing for 319 yards and 3 touchdowns with a 120.4 passer rating against a solid Raiders defense.
Now, he goes against a Bengals secondary that has talked more trash than it's been able to back up these past few weeks. They’ve allowed nearly 27 points per game so far this season, which ranks 26th in the league, and they’re coming fresh off their worst performance, where they allowed Jayden Daniels and the Commanders to score on every single possession.
And it’s true that the Bengals are still a good team; they have the weapons to score some points, and the offense looked like they were finally starting to click against Washington. But with how poorly they’ve played so far this season, it doesn’t make sense to give them -4.5 odds to cover over a Panthers team that’s looked good and actually has a win. Now, not much can be said for the Carolina defense, which actually ranks dead last in points per game allowed, but they looked better against the Raiders. Plus, simply not having Bryce Young at quarterback will allow their defense to play exponentially better since they’ll likely spend less time on the field and will be faced with more favorable field position throughout the game. I don’t necessarily disagree that the Bengals should be favored, but considering the spread, this game may actually be a lot closer than the name value of each team would suggest, and the AI backs that up.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
The Bet: Jacksonville to cover +6 (-110)
Gridiron AI prediction: 63%
The Jaguars are one of three remaining teams without a win so far this season, and they’ve undoubtedly looked the part. Jacksonville just got obliterated by Josh Allen and the Bills on Monday Night Football, with a final score of 47-10. In spite of a strong start from rookie wideout Brian Thomas Jr, Trevor Lawrence’s offense can’t seem to get out of first gear.
The Houston Texans, on the other hand, are seen as Super Bowl contenders, and rightfully so. But their season hasn’t gone without tumult either: Week one and two were nail-biter finishes against the Colts and Bears, two teams who have looked abysmal so far this season, and in week three the Texans were embarrassed by Darnold and the Vikings, who look unstoppable right now. Their overall point differential so far on the season is -19, and their average margin of victory is only 4 points against lesser competition. So, it doesn’t really make sense to consider Houston as 6-point favorites against Jacksonville; in a limited sample size thus far, they haven’t shown any ability to distance themselves from bad teams, and despite an 0-3 record, the Jaguars might not actually be that bad.
Jacksonville has had maybe the hardest early schedule in the league, playing the Dolphins, Browns, and Bills, and has given their opponent a close game in two out of the three. As far as winless teams go, the Jaguars don’t look bad on paper; Trevor Lawrence has a solid supporting cast that consists of Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk, BTJ, and Gabe Davis. If the offensive line can protect Lawrence better on Sunday, the Jags have a good chance to keep things close, so Gridiron AI gives them a 63% chance to cover the 6-point spread on Sunday.
5. Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bet: Philadelphia to cover -2.5 (-110)
Gridiron AI prediction: 62%
The Eagles just rebounded from an unfortunate loss against Atlanta with a big win over a red-hot Saints team. Philly has had a remarkably difficult schedule in three games, and Tampa might be the easiest opponent they’ve played yet. Baker had a monster start to the season, but his good mojo ran out in an embarrassing loss to a Bo Nix-led Broncos team that looked dead in the water prior to that game. Mayfield had a tough outing, to say the least, throwing for just 165 yards and mustering up a single touchdown. Mike Evans was completely erased by Pat Surtain on the day, and after a great opening game, hasn’t been much of a contributor for Tampa.
Even though these two squads have the same record, their skill right now is not comparable. Tampa just got blown out by Denver of all teams, and the Eagles lone loss on the season came by a single point. Saquon Barkley is making a strong case as one of the best running backs in football at nearly 28 years old, and the benefits of playing behind Philly’s big men up front are showing clear as day. The Tampa Bay front has looked vulnerable these past two weeks, even giving up a nice game on the ground to Tyler Badie against Denver, so it's not a stretch to infer that this Philly running game is going to have its way.
With all the evidence laid out, this game should really be more than a 2.5 point spread in favor of the Eagles. So far, Philly hasn’t given any reason to believe this game against Tampa will be close, and the AI concurs, giving them a 62% chance to cover.