Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes - QB - KC: vs CHI - $8,300
Over/Under (O/U): 47.5
Spread: KC -12.5
In cash games we like to keep it simple. While $8,300 may seem like a hefty price tag, and the Chiefs are favored by 12.5 points, leading to concerns of them easing off the gas pedal, if they do establish a comfortable lead, it's likely to come after Patrick Mahomes has an outstanding performance. Think of this as a "get-right" game for the Chiefs, who've only scored 37 points in the first two games of the season. The Bears' defense has struggled against both quarterbacks they’ve played so far, giving up 18 and 23 standard fantasy points to Baker Mayfield and Jordan Love respectively. I fully expect Mahomes to deliver at least three times his value (24.9 points) in this matchup before things get out of hand.
Kirk Cousins - QB - MIN: vs LAC - $6,900 O/U: 54 Spread: LAC -1
The LAC/MIN game appears set for a shootout. The Vegas lines alone are tantalizing from a fantasy points perspective—high total and low spread indicate plenty of scoring opportunities for both teams. With numerous options in this game, nearly any play can be justified in both cash and tournament formats. One standout choice is Kirk Cousins. After his first two games this season and his impressive fantasy football performance (averaging 22.5 standard fantasy points per game), his salary for this slate is surprisingly lower than expected. The Chargers' defense has been underwhelming, as demonstrated by their surrendering a monster game to Tyreek Hill in week one and allowing Ryan Tannehill to go 20/24 for 250 passing yards and a touchdown in a comeback win in week two. Given his price tag and the game environment, I actually prefer Cousins over Mahomes in cash games this week, but either option is solid.
Honorable Mentions: Justin Herbert, Josh Allen
Running Backs
Paying Up For…
Tony Pollard - RB - DAL: @ARI - $8,000
O/U: 43
Spread: DAL -12
When splurging on a running back in cash games, it's ideal to do so when the RB's team is the favorite. In this case, the Cowboys are heavily favored by as much as 12.5 points on the road against the Cardinals this week. Tony Pollard emerges as an excellent cash option. In the first two weeks of the season, Pollard has averaged 25.5 touches per game and an impressive 40.75 value-adjusted touches per game, factoring in his usage inside different sections of the red zone. Not only is Pollard heavily involved, but he's also getting opportunities in the red zone. Considering his price point, he can provide solid value as a key contributor to a team with a 27.5 point implied team total this week.
Isaiah Pacheco - RB - KC: vs CHI - $5,400
O/U: 47.5
Spread: -12.5 KC
Pacheco stands out as an excellent option in cash games this week with his affordable price of $5,400. His usage has been consistent for the Chiefs, averaging 13 touches per game to start the season. This number is likely to increase as the Chiefs aim to fine tune their offense after a slow start. Notably, the Bears currently rank 31st in the league in adjusted points allowed to RBs this season. With the Chiefs boasting nearly a 30-point implied team total, it's hard to envision constructing cash lineups without Pacheco this week. He's bound to be a popular choice at his salary.
Kenneth Walker - RB - SEA: vs CAR - $6,200
O/U: 42.0
Spread: -6 SEA
I’m very interested in Kenneth Walker at $6,200 this week against the Panthers, who have already yielded four touchdowns on the ground in the first two weeks of the season. Walker is averaging 25.5 value-adjusted touches per game and 3 red-zone touches per game. Following the trend of favoring running backs on the team expected to win, I particularly like Walker with the Seahawks as 6-point favorites at home, facing a defense that has allowed the most points to running backs this season.
Honorable Mentions: Raheem Mostert, Jerome Ford, Alexander Mattison, Jahmyr Gibbs
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson - WR - MIN: vs LAC - $9,300
O/U: 54
Spread: -1 LAC
I've already discussed this game and Kirk Cousins, so I won't be too repetitive here. If you're not splurging on Tony Pollard or Patrick Mahomes this week, consider investing in JJ at $9,300. I'm likely to stack him with Cousins in both cash games and tournaments this week. He's off to a strong start this season, leading the Vikings in target share (29%) and air yards share (39%). Moreover, he's up against a lower-ranked LAC secondary, which ranks 25th in the league in average depth of target (ADOT) allowed, 24th in yards after catch (YAC) allowed, and 31st in receiving touchdowns allowed. It should be another stellar day for a WR who's averaging 5 fantasy points over expected through the first two weeks of the year.
Nico Collins - WR - HOU: @ JAX - $5,300
O/U: 44
Spread: -9 JAX
CJ Stroud has quietly averaged nearly 300 passing yards per game in his first two NFL starts, and in those two games, Nico Collins has emerged as his favorite target. To start the year, Collins has posted a 13-226-1 line on 20 targets. This week, he'll face a JAX Defense that held Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to just 3 first-half points (a fluke, perhaps). Nonetheless, the Jags rank 21st in the league in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks through the first two weeks of the season. I expect the Texans will be playing from behind as 9-point underdogs, leading to CJ Stroud adding to his 91 pass attempts so far this season. When that happens, expect Collins to be a solid cash option at $5,300.
Adam Thielen - WR - CAR: @ SEA - $3,900
O/U: 42
Spread: -6 SEA
If you're investing heavily in the likes of Justin Jefferson, Patrick Mahomes, or Tony Pollard, you'll need to save salary elsewhere. Adam Thielen is likely my favorite sub-$4,000 option this week on the slate. After a slow start in week 1, he bounced back last week with 7 catches on 9 targets for 54 yards and a touchdown. With Seattle being favored by 6 points, it implies the Panthers will be playing from behind at some point and passing the ball to Thielen. Even if Thielen puts up half the points he did last week, he should have a nice ROI as a punt at $3,900.
Honorable Mentions: All the Chiefs Receivers (MVS, Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, all sub-$4,000)
Tight End
Dalton Kincaid - TE - BUF: @ WAS - $3,400
O/U: 44
Spread: -6.5 BUF
Dalton Kincaid has seen plenty of snaps as a rookie with the Bills so far this year. Buffalo has been employing a high percentage of passing downs with 2 tight end sets, and Kincaid has averaged 5 targets per game through the first 2 weeks of the season. I like him against a weak Commanders defense that ranks 29th in the league in points allowed to tight ends. I think Kincaid should do enough to provide value at a $3,400 salary. Dawson Knox isn't a bad option either at $3,200.
Travis Kelce - TE - KC: vs CHI - $7,200
Over/Under (O/U): 47.5
Spread: KC -12.5
If you're willing to spend, there's no need for an explanation. Travis Kelce is the top target of the best quarterback in the league.
Honorable Mentions: Sam Laporta, Zach Ertz
DST
BUF - 2900$
NYJ - 2800$