- O/U - 38.5
- Spread - CLE favored at -4.5
- CLE - Implied Points 21.5
- PIT - Implied Points 17
This game has the makings of an absolute stinker. Mitch Trubisky and the Steelers face off against Jacoby Brissett and the Cleveland Browns on Thursday night. A putrid over/under of 38.5 with two teams lost in the fold. When it comes to projected low-scoring games like this in showdown contests, it can be a good strategy to lean on the most common factors in low-scoring games, running and defense! Let's get started with some options at CPT.
The CPT Spot
- Nick Chubb - RB $18,000
Recency bias tells us Nick Chubb is the best play on the slate at CPT. The Browns are favored by 4 points, and Nick Chubb torched the Jets for 3 touchdowns this past Sunday. He will be a popular play at the CPT position and is probably a must-start in the CPT slot in cash games. Through 2 games, he is averaging a whopping 25 value-adjusted rush attempts* per game.
- Kareem Hunt - RB $11,400
Looking to pivot off Nick Chubb? Who is better than the 1B in the league's best one/two RB punch combo? This also allows you to squeeze Chubb in a FLEX spot, so you don't miss out on any CLE rush production. And if it makes you feel any better about leaving Chubb out of the CPT spot, Kareem Hunt has a slightly higher efficiency score through two games per Next Gen Stats.
- Diontae Johnson - WR - $13,800
If I'm putting anyone in the CPT spot on the PIT side of the ball. It's going to be Dionate Johnson. Through two games, he's averaged a 33% target share and nearly a 40% air yards share. Those numbers suggest he should be averaging close to 20 points per game....but because of what is likely a bad quarterback situation, he's averaging about 7.5 points below that number. He's bound to break out sooner or later, and if you have him in the CPT spot tonight when he does, you'll be in good shape.
- Jacoby Brissett - QB -$13,200
Yes. Him. Would not recommend it in cash, but he could be a nice GPP pivot if the game goes over. Brissett started showing some chemistry with WR Amari Cooper in last week's game against the Jets (9-101-1 for 28 points). So there's potential there for a nice stacking option.
FLEX Spot - (Any of the above you don't use in the CPT spot)
- Chris Boswell - $4,000
- Cade York - $4,200
In a game where points may come at a premium, there's a shot for one of these two kickers to get you 10 points. They come cheap at only about $4,000 and open up other possibilities in the lineup.
- CLE - $3,800
- PIT - $4,400
As a general rule of thumb, I try to avoid DSTs in showdowns. I do make an exception, however if the O/U is below 40 points, which in this case it is. With a similar philosophy to playing the above kickers in this game....points may be coming at a premium in this one, so get them where you can for cheap! Correlate these plays with RBs on the same team. If you wanted to get really weird, you could toss one of these in the CPT spot in a GPP and hope for some return tuddies.
- Pat Freirmuth - $7,000
Probably the best balance of cheap and high probability to score a TD for Freirmuth. He's also 3rd in the league among tight ends with a target share of 24 percent trailing only Mark Andrews and Tyler Higbee.
- Chase Claypool - $6,200
Claypool is 3rd on the Steelers in target share and has seen 4 catches on 6 targets in the first 2 games. Although these targets only added up to a putrid 44 yards, this target volume offers a respectable floor in a low-scoring game. Plus, the cheap price may allow you to spend elsewhere.
Ok, enough rambling. Hopefully, you can put together a cash-winning lineup with some of the food for thought above. Torn on the CPT spot? Check out GridIron AI's betting model for tonight to help you make that decision.You can make an account or add our MVP subscription to your account using this link. Generally best to have the CPT on the team that scores the most points!
*** Value-adjusted rush attempts give more value to rush attempts inside the 20, 10, and 5-yard lines. History tells that because of touchdown potential from these markers, rush attempts in this part of the field average more fantasy points than behind those marks.