The rookie model is loaded for 2026, so it's time for the annual tradition: run it, sort by projected PPR points, and see which first-year guys the model is buying. Rookies get their own model here — there's no NFL track record to lean on, so it's trained on college production, draft capital, and landing spot instead. In our backtests it won every position against the previous version, but let's be honest about the error bars up front: the average miss on a rookie season projection is about 47 PPR points. Rookie projections are hard. Treat this list as "who has the best shape," not "who will score exactly this."
Quick housekeeping note: when I first ran this list, the top quarterbacks in the class hadn't signed yet, so they weren't ranked at all. They've since signed, the pipeline picked them up automatically, and the class is now essentially fully ranked — which reshuffled the top of the board in a big way.
All points below are our site PPR scoring (1 point per reception, 4-point passing TDs, 6-point rushing/receiving TDs).
The Top 10
1. Fernando Mendoza, QB, Raiders — 193.1 pts The #1 overall pick debuts as the model's top rookie, full stop. The line: 2,527 passing yards, 15.3 passing TDs, plus 310 rushing yards. Read that yardage total again, though — that's not a 17-game starter's workload, so the model is effectively pricing in a partial season plus rookie-QB bumps along the way (it also projects 8.5 interceptions). QB scoring inflates season totals, so rookie #1 here doesn't mean "draft him first" — it means the model believes the job is his early and the rushing gives him a real floor.
2. Jeremiyah Love, RB, Cardinals — 181.3 pts The #3 overall pick out of Notre Dame is the model's rookie RB1, and the projection has the exact shape we look for in a back: 813 rushing yards and 5.4 TDs on the ground, plus 40 catches for another 173 yards. That receiving line is the part I care about — pass-game work is the single biggest lever in our RB features, and the model thinks Love gets it right away. He's the rookie I'd actually draft as a starter.
3. KC Concepcion, WR, Browns — 174.1 pts First-rounder (pick 24) with the highest target projection of any rookie: 89 targets, 66 catches, 737 yards. Target share is king for WRs in our model, and Concepcion profiles as the rare rookie who walks into real volume. In a PPR format, 66 catches is a floor most rookie receivers can't touch.
4. Ty Simpson, QB, Rams — 163.8 pts The Alabama product is the second rookie QB in the top 5: 2,378 passing yards and 13.7 TDs, with a little rushing sprinkled in (188 yards). Same caveat as Mendoza — that's a partial-season starter's projection, not a full year — but the model clearly thinks he plays meaningful football in 2026.
5. Jordyn Tyson, WR, Saints — 161.2 pts Top-10 pick projected for 59 catches, 634 yards, and 4.7 TDs. Slightly fewer targets than Concepcion but more scoring equity — the model sees him as the red-zone piece of that offense early.
6. Makai Lemon, WR, Eagles — 154.5 pts The USC product lands at 86 projected targets — basically Concepcion volume — with 54 catches for 685 yards. The yardage-per-catch is the interesting part: the model is pricing in real downfield work, not just short-area volume.
7. Carnell Tate, WR, Titans — 146.2 pts Pick 4 overall out of Ohio State. Fewer targets than the receivers above him (64), but the highest receiving TD projection of any rookie at 5.0. That's a draft-capital-plus-scoring profile: fewer catches, more of them mattering.
8. Jadarian Price, RB, Seahawks — 122.4 pts The other Notre Dame back in round one. Solid rushing line (592 yards, 4.6 TDs), but only 19 projected catches — and that's the whole gap between him and Love. A back without pass-game work caps out fast in our model, and Price is the case study.
9. Omar Cooper Jr., WR, Jets — 105.2 pts First-round pick out of Indiana projected for 37 catches and 442 yards. Modest numbers, but a real role from week one.
10. Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Jets — 101.4 pts The model's top rookie tight end: 41 catches, 459 yards out of Oregon. Rookie TEs almost never matter in fantasy, so I wouldn't draft him expecting a starter, but 100+ projected points from a first-year tight end is the model telling you the target role is legitimate.
Just missed, but worth knowing
Kaytron Allen, RB, Commanders — 93.2 pts. The best Day 3 story in the class — sixth round, pick 187, out of Penn State, and the model projects 405 rushing yards anyway. For a sixth-rounder, that's the model screaming "the depth chart is softer than the draft slot suggests." This is exactly the kind of late-round lottery ticket I like keeping an eye on.
The rest of the QB class. Cade Klubnik (Jets, fourth round) sits at 78.5 with 1,260 projected passing yards — a spot-starter projection. Drew Allar landed in Pittsburgh and the model only gives him 42.6 points, which is it saying "backup, at least for now." The gap between Mendoza/Simpson and everyone else is the model betting on who actually starts, not on talent rankings.
And yes, the model apparently loves the Jets' rookie class — Cooper, Sadiq, and Klubnik are all New York picks. Make of that what you will.
What I'm doing with this
- Love is the only rookie I'd draft as a starter. The receiving work makes him a real RB2 candidate; everyone else on this list is a bench stash or late flier.
- Mendoza and Simpson are superflex/2QB picks, not 1QB-league picks. The totals look shiny because QB scoring compounds, but a partial-season projection with 8.5 picks isn't something I'm starting weekly in a 1QB league. In superflex, though, a rookie the model thinks starts early is real value.
- The receiver trio (Concepcion, Tyson, Lemon) are late-round targets in PPR. The model has all three walking into 80+ target roles, and rookie WRs with volume are how you find league-winners on the cheap.
- Kaytron Allen is my favorite lottery ticket. A sixth-rounder the model projects for 400+ yards is worth a last-round pick to see what the coaches saw.
As always: 47-point average error, one model's opinion, and rookies are the hardest thing we project all year. Thanks for reading, and if you want to follow the rookie rankings all season, create a free account by clicking this link.