Every projection you see on our site is actually three numbers: a downside, a base projection, and an upside. The base number is what our model thinks happens in the median world. The upside number is the 90th-percentile outcome — the version of the season where the role expands, the touchdowns bounce right, and the guy stays on the field. We calibrate those intervals against historical outcomes so they're not fantasy-land numbers.
Most of the year I only talk about the base projection. This post is about the gap between the two, because that gap is where sleepers live. The screen I ran is simple: take every player on a 2026 depth chart, rank them by base projection, rank them again by upside projection, and flag the guys whose upside rank jumps way ahead of their base rank. A player who is RB48 in the median world but RB27 in the 90th-percentile world is exactly what I want in the last five rounds of a draft — the cost is the median, the payoff is the ceiling. Then I cross-checked the list against what's actually happening in training camps this month, because a ceiling case that's already dead in camp isn't worth a roster spot.
Quick disclaimer since it always comes up: this is a projection model, not gospel. Upside numbers are wider and noisier than base projections by construction — that's the whole point of them — so treat everything below as lottery tickets, not locks. Points are our default scoring (PPR, 6-point passing touchdowns).
Definitions for the table, so we are all on the same page:
- Base — our median projected fantasy points (and positional rank at that number)
- Ceiling — our 90th-percentile projected fantasy points (and positional rank at that number)
- Jump — how many positional rank spots the player climbs when you sort by ceiling instead of base
| Player | Pos | Team | Base (Rank) | Ceiling (Rank) | Jump |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | QB | WAS | 172.3 (QB28) | 358.5 (QB14) | +14 |
| Brashard Smith | RB | KC | 62.4 (RB58) | 199.1 (RB34) | +24 |
| Dylan Sampson | RB | CLE | 75.1 (RB48) | 224.6 (RB27) | +21 |
| Cam Skattebo | RB | NYG | 82.0 (RB46) | 209.4 (RB32) | +14 |
| Woody Marks | RB | HOU | 99.9 (RB39) | 218.2 (RB29) | +10 |
| Jerry Jeudy | WR | CLE | 117.8 (WR48) | 218.5 (WR38) | +10 |
Quarterback
Jayden Daniels — ceiling 358.5 pts (QB14) — The biggest gap on the whole board, and the mechanism is no mystery: Daniels missed 10 games last year (knee, hamstring, elbow), so our model only projects him for about 10.5 games in the median world. That's the entire reason he sits at QB28 by base projection. The ceiling scenario — roughly 15 games — puts him back at 358 points, and camp reports out of Washington say he's a full participant and "back full tilt." No surgery was needed on the elbow. You're not paying a QB14 price for the ceiling version of him, and that's the trade I want to make. The risk is real and already happened once; that's why the discount exists.
He's the only quarterback who makes the cut here. A few others (Jaxson Dart, Trevor Lawrence) climb when you sort by ceiling, but only a handful of spots — not enough of a gap to call them sleepers.
Running Backs
Brashard Smith — ceiling 199.1 pts (RB34) — The single biggest rank jump in the entire screen, +24 spots. Full disclosure: he's fourth on the Chiefs' depth chart in our data, which is why his median projection is a bleak 62 points. But the ceiling scenario has him catching 55 balls, and camp reports say he's been sharing first-team reps and profiles as the pass-catching back in an offense where Patrick Mahomes has always fed his running backs. Andy Reid has publicly questioned his pass protection, which is the honest counterargument — that's the skill that decides whether Day 3 receiving backs ever see the field. Pure lottery ticket, last-round price.
Dylan Sampson — ceiling 224.6 pts (RB27) — The second-biggest jump at RB (+21). Cleveland's third-down role opened up when Jerome Ford left for Washington, and Sampson is the RB2 behind Quinshon Judkins. The model's ceiling case is receiving-driven — up to 78 targets and 530 receiving yards — which is exactly the shape of the vacated Ford role. In PPR that pass-game floor is what turns a backup into a startable flex. He's a free square in the double-digit rounds if his camp usage holds.
Cam Skattebo — ceiling 209.4 pts (RB32) — Our depth charts have him as the Giants' lead back, and GM Joe Schoen confirmed he was "good to go" for camp after last season's ankle injury — he's been a full participant. The base projection (82 points) is dragged down by the injury history and a crowded touch distribution, but the ceiling line is 800 rushing yards plus 53 catches. A lead back attached to an ascending young offense — Jaxson Dart took a real step late last year, and Malik Nabers is working his way back — shouldn't cost you anything close to what the ceiling pays.
Woody Marks — ceiling 218.2 pts (RB29) — He led the Texans in rushing as a rookie with 703 yards after taking over midseason, and the reward was Houston trading for David Montgomery. That's why the base number is muted. But the beat writers say Marks is "learning the route tree" for a featured passing-down role, and our ceiling projection — up to 942 rushing yards on top of the receiving work — is basically the scenario where the timeshare tilts his way. Montgomery is 29. I like betting on the 23-year-old in that arrangement.
Wide Receiver
Jerry Jeudy — ceiling 218.5 pts (WR38) — Post-hype sleeper, the classic kind. The base projection (117.8) reflects a messy 2025 and a Browns quarterback room that's still an open competition between Deshaun Watson, Shedeur Sanders, and Dillon Gabriel — which, fair. But the target projection is real: 83 in the median world, up to 125 in the ceiling world, with an upside line of 1,095 yards. He's still the clear top outside receiver on the roster. If literally any of the three quarterbacks stabilizes, the volume is there.
He's the lone receiver that clears the bar. Chimere Dike and Christian Watson were the next-closest, but their ceiling ranks only climb 7-8 spots, and I decided that's not a big enough gap to sell you on.
You'll notice there's no tight end section. I ran the same screen there, and nobody's ceiling rank moved more than a few spots — the position just doesn't produce big base-to-ceiling gaps in our model this year. Rather than force a name onto the list, I'm leaving it empty.
What I'm Actually Doing With This
The way I use this list: Daniels is my late-round quarterback plan — I'd rather take him three rounds after the elite QBs go than pay the toll. Sampson, Marks, and Skattebo are the double-digit-round RB dart throws I want, roughly in that order of cost. Smith is a true last-pick flier. And Jeudy is my favorite pure value of the group because the target volume doesn't depend on a camp battle.
For those of you in leagues with me, this list 100% coincides with guys I'm going to try to get. For everyone else, I hope it helps you find a gem or two in the back half of your draft.
Thanks for reading, and if you want to see our full upside, base, and downside projections for every player, create a free account by clicking this link.