Dominate Your Fantasy Football League with Gridiron AI Projections
With Gridiron AI projections, you can gain an edge over your competitors and dominate your league. Our projections aren't just numbers pulled out of thin air; they're the result of a sophisticated machine learning model that considers a wide array of factors. Let's dive into how it works and how you can use it to your advantage.
If you want to see this strategy in action? Check out our YouTube channel where we have a video that goes through our priority targets and fades for 2023. I'll also be streaming on that channel on Wednesday August 23, at 6 pm to go through a REAL draft and discuss how I use our rankings. I will also go through some of my favorit players on the year!
How Gridiron AI Projections Work
Our projections are informed by a machine learning model that considers counting stats from a player's career, characteristics and measurables from the combine, team-level statistics, draft capital, and advanced stats. By selecting the most predictive features for each position, we predict the fantasy points projection as a target variable. Without getting into the weeds too much, at any given position, in 2022 our projections were off by about 3 points per week on average for each player.
We don't claim these projections to be perfect, but our methodology allows us to consider more information than the average fantasy football expert projector. We're putting this to the test by entering the FantasyPros projection contest and tracking our results each week.
Using Gridiron AI Projections in Your League
Simply drafting from our rankings by value or projection won't give you an edge. Instead, we aim to help you understand how to best use the projections in your league, keeping it as simple as possible.
Draft Strategy Recommendations
Here's what you need to consider when drafting, in the order you should consider them:
1. ADP Value: Leverage the "Wisdom of the Crowd"
How to Think About It: Average Draft Position (ADP) is a reflection of the fantasy football market. Staying close to ADP ensures you're not overpaying for players. Especially in the early rounds, your picks should aim to get as much positive ADP value as possible.
Example: If a player's ADP is 15 and you can draft him at 20, you're gaining value. Avoid reaching more than a round and a half for any player, especially early on. Your first 4-6 picks should focus on maximizing ADP value. If two players give you similar ADP value, then use our projections to help break the tie!
2. Positional Value: Consider Your League's Settings
How to Think About It: Your league's settings (e.g., 2 QB, 3 WR, Tight end premium) should guide your draft strategy. ADP should reflect these settings, but you must also prioritize positions based on your league's roster requirements. Again, if two players fill a roster need, use our projections to help you decide.
Example: In a 3 WR league, target elite WRs early while picking up ADP value. Be aggressive on WRs in the first 6 rounds, but take a detour for a RB or TE if the value is there. Use our projections to target WRs with the highest upside within the ADP value.
3. Projection Value: Utilize Gridiron AI Projections After Round 6
How to Think About It: After filling out the majority of your starting team, our projections will help you make better decisions. Focus on expected points and upside points to break ties between players. As you move later into the draft, the upside projection becomes more important.
Example: In round 7, you're deciding between two WRs with similar ADP. Use our expected points to choose the one with higher upside. After round 10, if there's a glaring value according to our projections, a reach is fine, especially if that player has a high upside point proection. Adjust to the draft, take ADP value, and use our projections to guide your decisions.
Happy Drafting!
Want to see this strategy in action? Check out our YouTube channel where we have a video that goes through our priority targets and fades for 2023. I'll also be streaming on that channel on Wednesday at 6 pm to go through a draft and discuss how I use our rankings.
Ready to take your fantasy football game to the next level? Sign up for our projection subscription using code PRESEASON 2023 to get a month free. Click here to sign up.