NFL 2019 Week 6 Projections - Top 10 At Each Position

By Andy Troiano · October 09, 2019

This post will cover the week five rankings generated by our models.

Changes from Last Year

I am going to add minimal commentary to these posts. We are channeling the time it took to add our opinion into new and better models. If you have questions, join our slack channel or email us.

Quick Thoughts

We are not manually modifying the projections from our models because we think something is or isn’t going to happen. We are trusting in the data.

We have a Rank of the Risk for the player obtaining their upside/downside projection in the tables below, which will help you understand the spread in the rankings. This will also allow you to get a feel for how the model views the ranges of performance for a given player. Other sites are going to give you the mean prediction, we are going to help you understand how confident the mean score is going to occur.

  • In general:
    • The downside risk for top players will be high because there projected scores are significantly higher than other players.
      • For example - Week 1, Mahomes has “Very High” for downside risk because he is supposed to ball out with 23 points. The chance of his downside risk is probably low because he is so good, right now, I don’t have the probability of attaining each prediction. That is something we are going to work on later this season.
    • The upside risk for top players will also generally be lower because they generally score close to the most points that can be expected at their position.

About the Graphs and Tables

The graphs are self-explanatory, and it is going to provide you with the projected points for the players for the top 10 at each position.

The tables contain:

  • Points - Average points for the player

  • Upside Points - Upside opportunity for a player

  • Downside Points - Downside risk for a player

  • Upside Point Opp - Rating for the point opportunity given the players position

  • Downside Point Opp - Rating for the point downside given the players position

QB

Top 10 QB

QB Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Deshaun Watson </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 21.8 </td> <td> 32.5 </td> <td> 21.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Matt Ryan </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 21.3 </td> <td> 25.5 </td> <td> 21.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Russell Wilson </td> <td> SEA </td> <td> 20.3 </td> <td> 30.0 </td> <td> 20.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Patrick Mahomes </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 20.1 </td> <td> 28.7 </td> <td> 20.1 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jameis Winston </td> <td> TAM </td> <td> 19.5 </td> <td> 26.5 </td> <td> 19.5 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tom Brady </td> <td> NE </td> <td> 19.4 </td> <td> 21.2 </td> <td> 19.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dak Prescott </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 19.1 </td> <td> 24.4 </td> <td> 19.1 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Lamar Jackson </td> <td> BAL </td> <td> 18.0 </td> <td> 27.4 </td> <td> 18.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jimmy Garoppolo </td> <td> SFO </td> <td> 17.5 </td> <td> 22.7 </td> <td> 17.5 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Philip Rivers </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 17.5 </td> <td> 22.0 </td> <td> 17.5 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Aaron Rodgers </td> <td> GB </td> <td> 17.5 </td> <td> 24.6 </td> <td> 17.5 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

RB

Top 10 RB

RB PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Christian McCaffrey </td> <td> CAR </td> <td> 25.6 </td> <td> 40.1 </td> <td> 25.6 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dalvin Cook </td> <td> MIN </td> <td> 19.2 </td> <td> 31.6 </td> <td> 19.2 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Le’Veon Bell </td> <td> NYJ </td> <td> 18.8 </td> <td> 31.5 </td> <td> 18.8 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Leonard Fournette </td> <td> JAC </td> <td> 18.6 </td> <td> 31.1 </td> <td> 18.6 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Alvin Kamara </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 18.6 </td> <td> 29.8 </td> <td> 18.6 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Aaron Jones </td> <td> GB </td> <td> 16.9 </td> <td> 29.2 </td> <td> 16.9 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Austin Ekeler </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 16.2 </td> <td> 27.9 </td> <td> 16.2 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> David Johnson </td> <td> ARI </td> <td> 15.8 </td> <td> 26.5 </td> <td> 15.8 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Phillip Lindsay </td> <td> DEN </td> <td> 15.3 </td> <td> 27.1 </td> <td> 15.3 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Chris Carson </td> <td> SEA </td> <td> 14.8 </td> <td> 26.1 </td> <td> 14.8 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
RB STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Christian McCaffrey </td> <td> CAR </td> <td> 20.4 </td> <td> 32.7 </td> <td> 20.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dalvin Cook </td> <td> MIN </td> <td> 15.4 </td> <td> 25.6 </td> <td> 15.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Leonard Fournette </td> <td> JAC </td> <td> 15.3 </td> <td> 25.6 </td> <td> 15.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Le’Veon Bell </td> <td> NYJ </td> <td> 14.8 </td> <td> 25.4 </td> <td> 14.8 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Alvin Kamara </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 14.5 </td> <td> 23.7 </td> <td> 14.5 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Aaron Jones </td> <td> GB </td> <td> 13.9 </td> <td> 24.3 </td> <td> 13.9 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Phillip Lindsay </td> <td> DEN </td> <td> 12.3 </td> <td> 22.1 </td> <td> 12.3 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Chris Carson </td> <td> SEA </td> <td> 12.3 </td> <td> 21.7 </td> <td> 12.3 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> David Johnson </td> <td> ARI </td> <td> 11.9 </td> <td> 20.4 </td> <td> 11.9 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Ezekiel Elliott </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 11.9 </td> <td> 21.5 </td> <td> 11.9 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

WR

Top 10 WR

WR PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Michael Thomas </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 18.4 </td> <td> 27.0 </td> <td> 18.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Julian Edelman </td> <td> NE </td> <td> 18.0 </td> <td> 26.4 </td> <td> 18.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tyreek Hill </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 17.7 </td> <td> 26.9 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> Low </td> <td> Very High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Keenan Allen </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 17.7 </td> <td> 26.5 </td> <td> 17.7 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Kenny Golladay </td> <td> DET </td> <td> 17.5 </td> <td> 26.3 </td> <td> 17.5 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> DeAndre Hopkins </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 17.0 </td> <td> 25.2 </td> <td> 17.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Davante Adams </td> <td> GB </td> <td> 16.8 </td> <td> 25.4 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Cooper Kupp </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 16.7 </td> <td> 25.4 </td> <td> 16.7 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> JuJu Smith-Schuster </td> <td> PIT </td> <td> 15.9 </td> <td> 24.5 </td> <td> 15.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
WR STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Michael Thomas </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 11.8 </td> <td> 18.4 </td> <td> 11.8 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Julian Edelman </td> <td> NE </td> <td> 11.6 </td> <td> 18.0 </td> <td> 11.6 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Keenan Allen </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 11.5 </td> <td> 18.1 </td> <td> 11.5 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Kenny Golladay </td> <td> DET </td> <td> 11.4 </td> <td> 18.0 </td> <td> 11.4 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tyreek Hill </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 11.4 </td> <td> 18.4 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> DeAndre Hopkins </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 11.0 </td> <td> 17.3 </td> <td> 11.0 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Davante Adams </td> <td> GB </td> <td> 10.9 </td> <td> 17.4 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Cooper Kupp </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 10.8 </td> <td> 17.3 </td> <td> 10.8 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> JuJu Smith-Schuster </td> <td> PIT </td> <td> 10.3 </td> <td> 16.8 </td> <td> 10.3 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mike Evans </td> <td> TAM </td> <td> 10.2 </td> <td> 16.7 </td> <td> 10.2 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

TE

Top 10 TE

TE PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> George Kittle </td> <td> SFO </td> <td> 17.8 </td> <td> 25.6 </td> <td> 17.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Evan Engram </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 14.6 </td> <td> 22.0 </td> <td> 14.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Travis Kelce </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 14.1 </td> <td> 22.0 </td> <td> 14.1 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Austin Hooper </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 13.3 </td> <td> 21.0 </td> <td> 13.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Zach Ertz </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 13.2 </td> <td> 20.7 </td> <td> 13.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mark Andrews </td> <td> BAL </td> <td> 10.9 </td> <td> 18.4 </td> <td> 10.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Will Dissly </td> <td> SEA </td> <td> 10.4 </td> <td> 17.8 </td> <td> 10.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Hunter Henry </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 8.9 </td> <td> 16.3 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> Low </td> <td> Very High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Gerald Everett </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 8.9 </td> <td> 16.2 </td> <td> 8.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jason Witten </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 8.8 </td> <td> 16.1 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
TE STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> George Kittle </td> <td> SFO </td> <td> 11.4 </td> <td> 17.0 </td> <td> 11.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Evan Engram </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 9.3 </td> <td> 14.7 </td> <td> 9.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Travis Kelce </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 9.0 </td> <td> 15.0 </td> <td> 9.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Austin Hooper </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 8.5 </td> <td> 14.3 </td> <td> 8.5 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Zach Ertz </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 8.4 </td> <td> 14.0 </td> <td> 8.4 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mark Andrews </td> <td> BAL </td> <td> 7.0 </td> <td> 12.5 </td> <td> 7.0 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Will Dissly </td> <td> SEA </td> <td> 6.6 </td> <td> 12.1 </td> <td> 6.6 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Hunter Henry </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 5.7 </td> <td> 11.4 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> Low </td> <td> Very High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Gerald Everett </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 5.7 </td> <td> 11.2 </td> <td> 5.7 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jason Witten </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 5.6 </td> <td> 11.2 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> Low </td> <td> Very High </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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