NFL 2019 Week 4 Projections - Top 10 At Each Position

By Andy Troiano · September 25, 2019

This post will cover the week four rankings generated by our models.

Changes from Last Year

I am going to add minimal commentary to these posts. We are channeling the time it took to add our opinion into new and better models. If you have questions, join our slack channel or email us.

Quick Thoughts

We are not manually modifying the projections from our models because we think something is or isn’t going to happen. We are trusting in the data.

We have a Rank of the Risk for the player obtaining their upside /downside projection in the tables below, which will help you understand the spread in the rankings. This will also allow you to get a feel for how the model views the ranges of performance for a given player. Other sites are going to give you the mean prediction, we are going to help you understand how confident the mean score is going to occur.

  • In general:
    • The downside risk for top players will be high because their projected scores are significantly higher than other players.
      • For example - Week 1, Mahomes had “Very High” for downside risk because he is supposed to ball out with 23 points. The chance of his downside risk is probably low because he is so good, right now, I don’t have the probability of attaining each prediction. That is something we are going to work on later this season.
  • The upside risk for top players will also generally be lower because they generally score close to the most points that can be expected at their position.

About the Graphs and Tables

The graphs are self-explanatory; it is going to provide you with the projected points for the players for the top 10 at each position.

The tables contain:

  • Points - Average points for the player
  • Upside Points - Upside opportunity for a player
  • Downside Points - Downside risk for a player
  • Upside Point Opp - Rating for the point opportunity given the player's position
  • Downside Point Opp - Rating for the points downside given the player's position

QB

Top 10 QB

QB Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Patrick Mahomes </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 23.2 </td> <td> 38.9 </td> <td> 23.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Deshaun Watson </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 20.7 </td> <td> 29.3 </td> <td> 4.0 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Josh Allen </td> <td> BUF </td> <td> 20.6 </td> <td> 29.0 </td> <td> 4.9 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Lamar Jackson </td> <td> BAL </td> <td> 20.5 </td> <td> 28.6 </td> <td> 5.7 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dak Prescott </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 20.4 </td> <td> 29.7 </td> <td> 2.1 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Russell Wilson </td> <td> SEA </td> <td> 20.2 </td> <td> 29.3 </td> <td> 2.6 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Matt Ryan </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 20.2 </td> <td> 29.6 </td> <td> 20.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tom Brady </td> <td> NE </td> <td> 19.5 </td> <td> 28.4 </td> <td> 1.2 </td> <td> Low </td> <td> Very High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Case Keenum </td> <td> WAS </td> <td> 18.2 </td> <td> 27.2 </td> <td> 1.4 </td> <td> Medium </td> <td> High </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

RB

Top 10 RB

RB PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Alvin Kamara </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 20.6 </td> <td> 33.0 </td> <td> 20.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Christian McCaffrey </td> <td> CAR </td> <td> 18.7 </td> <td> 30.9 </td> <td> 18.7 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dalvin Cook </td> <td> MIN </td> <td> 18.0 </td> <td> 30.5 </td> <td> 18.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Ezekiel Elliott </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 15.7 </td> <td> 27.9 </td> <td> 15.7 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Phillip Lindsay </td> <td> DEN </td> <td> 15.1 </td> <td> 27.3 </td> <td> 15.1 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Damien Williams </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 14.7 </td> <td> 26.2 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> Low </td> <td> Very High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Austin Ekeler </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 14.6 </td> <td> 26.4 </td> <td> 14.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Nick Chubb </td> <td> CLE </td> <td> 14.4 </td> <td> 26.5 </td> <td> 14.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Leonard Fournette </td> <td> JAC </td> <td> 14.1 </td> <td> 26.1 </td> <td> 14.1 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mark Ingram </td> <td> BAL </td> <td> 13.4 </td> <td> 25.6 </td> <td> 13.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
RB STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Alvin Kamara </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 16.3 </td> <td> 26.3 </td> <td> 16.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dalvin Cook </td> <td> MIN </td> <td> 15.3 </td> <td> 25.5 </td> <td> 15.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Christian McCaffrey </td> <td> CAR </td> <td> 15.2 </td> <td> 25.1 </td> <td> 15.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Ezekiel Elliott </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 13.4 </td> <td> 23.3 </td> <td> 13.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Phillip Lindsay </td> <td> DEN </td> <td> 12.6 </td> <td> 22.6 </td> <td> 12.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Nick Chubb </td> <td> CLE </td> <td> 12.2 </td> <td> 22.0 </td> <td> 12.2 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Marlon Mack </td> <td> IND </td> <td> 11.8 </td> <td> 21.9 </td> <td> 11.8 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Austin Ekeler </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 11.6 </td> <td> 21.1 </td> <td> 11.6 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mark Ingram </td> <td> BAL </td> <td> 11.6 </td> <td> 21.5 </td> <td> 11.6 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

WR

Top 10 WR

WR PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Julian Edelman </td> <td> NE </td> <td> 18.1 </td> <td> 27.1 </td> <td> 18.1 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> DeAndre Hopkins </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 17.3 </td> <td> 25.9 </td> <td> 17.3 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Michael Thomas </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 16.9 </td> <td> 25.6 </td> <td> 16.9 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Julio Jones </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 16.7 </td> <td> 25.2 </td> <td> 16.7 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Davante Adams </td> <td> GB </td> <td> 16.3 </td> <td> 24.9 </td> <td> 16.3 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Keenan Allen </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 16.0 </td> <td> 24.7 </td> <td> 16.0 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> T.Y. Hilton </td> <td> IND </td> <td> 15.8 </td> <td> 24.3 </td> <td> 15.8 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Cooper Kupp </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 15.7 </td> <td> 24.6 </td> <td> 15.7 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mike Evans </td> <td> TAM </td> <td> 15.6 </td> <td> 24.1 </td> <td> 15.6 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Sammy Watkins </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 15.4 </td> <td> 24.0 </td> <td> 15.4 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
WR STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Julian Edelman </td> <td> NE </td> <td> 11.7 </td> <td> 18.5 </td> <td> 11.7 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> DeAndre Hopkins </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 11.1 </td> <td> 17.7 </td> <td> 11.1 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Michael Thomas </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 10.9 </td> <td> 17.5 </td> <td> 10.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Julio Jones </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 10.8 </td> <td> 17.3 </td> <td> 10.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Davante Adams </td> <td> GB </td> <td> 10.5 </td> <td> 17.1 </td> <td> 10.5 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> T.Y. Hilton </td> <td> IND </td> <td> 10.2 </td> <td> 16.6 </td> <td> 10.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Keenan Allen </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 10.2 </td> <td> 16.9 </td> <td> 10.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Cooper Kupp </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 10.1 </td> <td> 16.9 </td> <td> 10.1 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mike Evans </td> <td> TAM </td> <td> 10.0 </td> <td> 16.5 </td> <td> 10.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Sammy Watkins </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 9.9 </td> <td> 16.4 </td> <td> 9.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

TE

Top 10 TE

TE PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Travis Kelce </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 15.8 </td> <td> 23.8 </td> <td> 15.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Evan Engram </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 15.6 </td> <td> 23.6 </td> <td> 15.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Zach Ertz </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 13.3 </td> <td> 21.2 </td> <td> 13.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mark Andrews </td> <td> BAL </td> <td> 12.8 </td> <td> 20.7 </td> <td> 12.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Delanie Walker </td> <td> TEN </td> <td> 11.9 </td> <td> 19.8 </td> <td> 11.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Greg Olsen </td> <td> CAR </td> <td> 11.6 </td> <td> 19.4 </td> <td> 11.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Austin Hooper </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 10.7 </td> <td> 18.6 </td> <td> 10.7 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jason Witten </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 10.0 </td> <td> 17.8 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> Low </td> <td> Very High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Eric Ebron </td> <td> IND </td> <td> 9.3 </td> <td> 17.2 </td> <td> 9.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Hunter Henry </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 9.0 </td> <td> 16.8 </td> <td> 9.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
TE STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Travis Kelce </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 10.2 </td> <td> 16.1 </td> <td> 10.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Evan Engram </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 10.0 </td> <td> 16.0 </td> <td> 10.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Zach Ertz </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 8.5 </td> <td> 14.4 </td> <td> 8.5 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mark Andrews </td> <td> BAL </td> <td> 8.2 </td> <td> 14.1 </td> <td> 8.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Delanie Walker </td> <td> TEN </td> <td> 7.6 </td> <td> 13.5 </td> <td> 7.6 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Greg Olsen </td> <td> CAR </td> <td> 7.4 </td> <td> 13.3 </td> <td> 7.4 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Austin Hooper </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 6.8 </td> <td> 12.8 </td> <td> 6.8 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jason Witten </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 6.4 </td> <td> 12.2 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> Low </td> <td> Very High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Eric Ebron </td> <td> IND </td> <td> 5.9 </td> <td> 11.8 </td> <td> 5.9 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Hunter Henry </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 5.7 </td> <td> 11.6 </td> <td> 5.7 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
Housekeeping!

Housekeeping!

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